Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Secretary Carter is also a bit frustrated with the Russian initiative in Syria at this point.

There are no direct talks with the USA and Russia. There was no statement about the Arab Coalition having contact with Moscow.

Secretary Carter stated the current methodology within Syria by Russia will come back to bite them because there is no political solution in Russia's current plans. 

Let me expand on that. 

The reason Washington wants Assad to step down is to make it obvious to the Syrian people they will never have to be lead by him again. Washington believes when Assad is gone the rebels will stop their killing. It is my opinion that is a wayward idea and too simplistic.

If the Syrian people were going to come together to end the authority of Assad it would not have dissolved into anarchy and over 400 separate and unique militias. 

For as much as The West wants Assad out of leadership in Syria, to believe there would be a saintly phoenix to come from the Syrian ashes is more a Neocon dreamscape than one based in reality. 

The lack of authority in Syria has created the anarchy and the incubator for Daesh. 

Daesh is serious about their agenda. Why not? The Ba'athists face death otherwise. They saw what happened to Saddam. The real failing in all of this was the lack of intelligence by the Assad government before the Ba'athists reached a level of concentrated authority. Assad allowed the anarchy by not destroying the Ba'athists plans for his country. Assad thought there was nothing that could touch his authority. He was wrong. Very wrong and the USA had nothing to do with Daesh. Deash is the left overs of Saddam. Assad should have seen this coming. His lack of leadership drove Russia from his ports and into the Black Sea to back up the rebels in Ukraine. 

The facts of Syria are plain. There are many separate Arab minorities in Syria. It is just the way it is. Assad is Shia. The Ba'athists from Iraq began hate speech in Syria and it began to find followers. It is just that simple. As more and more support grew for the Deash Caliphate the more resolve in the people to take up arms. There are more Sunnis in Syria than Shia, but, that is primarily true throughout the Middle East, except Iraq and Iran. 

Russia got involved because the refugee movement was becoming a threat to stability throughout the region and the refugees were bringing their hate with them. 

The fact The West (John McCain) was unable to develop an authority outside of Assad is not surprising. The Syrian people were unwilling to compromise their ancestry and religion. There was never going to be an infidel that could unite them. Like it or not, Syria is stuck with Assad. The Shia of Syria cling to Assad for their place in the world. In that is an understanding about Hezbollah.  

 The Alawites are on the coastal area of Syria. Or at least they used to be. Where is Hezbollah?

Hezbollah calls Lebanon home. They lie directly between the Alawites and Israel.

Hezbollah's allegiance is to Assad. Hezbollah is a Shi'ite group. They know they are minorities that have to live under the leadership of other governments. That is true of the Shia Crescent. The Shia have to live with other leaders, but, they primarily reject them and look to Assad and Iran and now Iraq for their clues about their SAFE standing.  

Saudi Arabia has always sought good relations with Assad. Let's hope that continues. Iran has to stop it's expansionism.