Wednesday, August 03, 2011

This POLITICAL INSTABILITY being witnessed in the USA is nothing new.

As a matter of fact it is NORMAL for this democracy.

I don't believe any of the Tea Party or the Republicans are going to go haywire and decide to attempt to change the standard of USA currency.

What has occurred in the USA by The Fed, however, has caused its damage.  Some might think it was a good thing, but, in my opinion it made things more difficult for the recovery.  The theory is that a 'weak' dollar provides an incentive to purchase American goods.  That is not exactly the case this time.  The USA Dollar is the global measure of currency value and it has a global penetration, so to devalue the dollar during a recession to encourage USA economic growth when the entire world economy is volatile only adds fuel to the fire.

That said, the markets need to find their 'stability' in reassurances by governments to THE  VISION of their future in the world.  I could provide some kind of vision, but, it isn't really my place.  China and India best look to increasing their quality of life and to the extent the USA outsourcing provided its beginnings we can all take pride in it, but, the Honey Moon is over.  China and India cannot still rely on the USA economy for its PRIMARY market place.  They have to raise their standard of living and quality of life to build their stability WITHIN their boundaries and sovereign nation.  That isn't easy with a billion people, but, it can happen and if done well it can happen quickly. 

If China and India 'find the guts' to build their own economies the demands for goods globally will go up and their people will become travelers and consumers no different than that of Europe and North America.  Russia is already under going that dynamic in its major cities, but, there are other problems in Russia and the climate is causing havoc within Russia.  The climate is also a huge issue in the USA, but, Republicans are DENIERS and won't deal with it effectively.  Why do down that road now, but, the states need to adopt policies that work for them in conjunction with The Clean Air Act and The Clean Water Act.  Those two legislative miracles 'link' the states in a unique way that if applied well will require all states to be concerned about their contribution to climate instability.

August 3, 2011
0100 gmt
USA Temperature Map

There is another 'heat bubble' forming.  The heat from the land actually contributes to the enlarging of the expanse of the air mass.

There is somewhat of a disturbing assessment in the Atlantic this hurricane season.  The storms in the Atlantic are encountering a lot of 'dry air' and not able to sustain their velocity because they loss their water vapor component.  That is why there isn't more high velocity storms to absorb some of this extraordinary heat into the oceans.  Not that it won't happen yet in a couple of weeks or so as the sun continues its southward movement, but, to realize the intensity of the heat of the planet in relation to the hurricanes in the Atlantic is to realize the severe heat stress it is under because of greenhouse gases.

This single fact is a global concern, not just the USA and must be addressed.  There is complete irrational behavior in the Republican Party in the USA so some kind of sanctions may have to be impressed if the USA does not come up with a climate policy at least at the 'state and local' level to stop this incredibly stupid manmade disaster.  

The Drought in the USA is now feeding itself.  The heat bubbles are self growth phenomena REINFORCED by its own physics 'over time' that then contributes to the next week of increased depth and range.

This is completely ridiculous.

At any rate, the global markets have to find a 'focus' that dictates stability in order to 'settle down' to a dull roar.  How that is going to happen might be dictated by 'minor economies' that rely on stable sources of support from the IMF.  I know that sounds counter intuitive, but, smaller economies IMPROVE as there is little else for them to do and their currencies begin to increase.  The more the currencies are viewed as 'stable' and 'a good place to hide' the sooner the rest of the economic dynamics of other countries can be MEASURED.  

What is the Rand doing?  I haven't look in a while.

The South African Rand is doing quite well.  Diamonds among other things the country mines continues to provide stability.  It is an amazing currency.  It took a little bit of a hit in 2008 simply because its economy is volatile by the assets it has.  In other words, when the global economy dropped, the diamonds became to risky an investment as they would not be purchased by consumers and therefore the Rand became more unstable.  But, that 'lack of confidence' in the Rand didn't last long (click here).  Cool.

It is that 'type' of stability the global markets should be seeking 'AS A MEASURE' to the success of recovering economies such as that of the USA and Europe.  History of a currency isn't necessarily the best measure to current conditions.

But, to find a 'point of reference' that provides insight to current conditions and potential for increased stability should prove to be a solace of one type or another.

It is easy to find comfort in metals as a 'safe haven.'  It is quite something else to find 'a personal quality' to lead in challenging times.  The current markets should not be concerned about the political nonsense existing in a populous party that may last a few election cycles.  It is normal for the USA.  I am confident President Obama and his cabinet have already had this discussion among themselves and 'the man' in the White House did exceptionally well in his negotiations and the Treasury Secretary learned never to change a 'date of decision' for the 'quality of the opposing political' leadership.

Good night and good luck.  

Be a bear. 


Be a heroic bear.  


The Long Depression lasted from 1873 to 1896.

NPR did an audio about Jennings.  (click title to entry - thank you)

His proposed policy for STABILIZING the USA economy, once and for all, was to change the monetary standard from Gold to Silver.

That is how distraught the citizens of the USA had become.  They wanted a solution and they wanted it now.  Many were convinced Jennings had the answer, but, when it came to the actual vote, the Gold Standard won out at the ballot box.

Silver and Gold: Better baits for Investments ? (click here)
March 20, 2011

Silver gained nearly 2% and hovered near USD 35 an ounce ever since crisis crippled world’s third largest economy, Japan. During the same time Nikkei had tanked almost 10% and most other countries indices were affected.
Fundamentally, there are three main reasons which has been the price driver for silver: higher industrial demand, safe heaven for investment and supply dynamics. The industrial demand for previous year for silver was 48%. Peru, Mexico and China are the three main producers of silver. The total mine production has increased by 4% or 709.6 Moz (Million ounces) this year.  On the other hand the gold demand has risen by 3% this year.
The return of gold for a 4 year average period is 22.00% while that of silver is 25.44%. This has made silver more attractive as an investment than the gold. The retail investment in silver is increasing at a faster rate than the retail investment in gold. The truth is silver has certainly out shined gold.
Inflation in China as well as in India, who are the major consumers of precious metal, has been high. With such inflationary pressure, investor find their solace in Gold and Silver. Importantly, investment in silver has been high for the simple reason that silver is affordable as compared to gold....

Now there is a reason I referred to all this and I'll get to it in the next entry.

The Recession of 1893 was not completely dissimilar to that which we are facing today.

The Recession of 1893 was considered The Great Depression right up to the actual Great Depression that history now paints previous to WWII.

The recession of 1893, still today is called "The Long Depression" and resulted from a Railroad Bubble.

But, the Long Depression was sort of the 'last straw' for many Americans.  They had grown tired of impoverishment and the agricultural sector (the primary backbone of the USA economy at the time) was growing restless.

William Jennings Bryan came out as a result of "The Panic of 1893."  Twenty years after a previous severe recession.  People remembered the panic of 1873 and to face a long and lingering depression yet again was more than the agricultural sector could tolerate.  They wanted relief and 'by damn it' they were going to have it.  They wanted off the roller coaster.