Tuesday, February 26, 2019

I have a straight up question, not a riddle.

Has Trump done anything to dummy down USA intelligence/threat assessment? Is Congress receiving a real picture?

NATO would have a valid assessment if that were the case. The USA and NATO threat assessment should run parallel to each other, not conflict the facts.

Nancy Pelosi never went to Afghanistan. That is a blind spot. She was supposed to travel there anonymously and Trump exposed her. But, the trip was after a meeting by Russia with parties from Afghanistan. One could ask why did Trump reveal a trip into a war zone of a member of Congress? And why was the trip canceled after a summit by Russia?

9 November 2018
By Andrew Roth

Russia has hosted talks with Taliban delegates (click here) and members of Afghanistan’s high peace council, as the Kremlin seeks a role as peace broker between Islamist rebels and the US-backed government in Kabul.

The meeting on Friday demonstrated Moscow’s renewed aspirations in Afghanistan almost 30 years after the Soviet Union withdrew its battered forces.

Russia’s foreign ministry touted the attendance of the Taliban, who sent a five-person delegation to Moscow from their political office in Doha, as unprecedented for an international conference aimed at peace in Afghanistan, although the meeting produced few concrete results.

The Afghan government did not send direct representatives to Friday’s talks, electing instead to send members of the peace council “in its own capacity as a national but non-government institution”.

The Afghan government and the Taliban both denied that the conference marked direct negotiations for peace. But Russia’s foreign ministry focused attention on the spectacle of delegates from both sides of the line in Afghanistan sitting together at Moscow’s President hotel, alongside representatives from Iran, China, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan....
I might add, dissolving the INF Treaty is an assault against NATO. Where is Russia going to reconstitute land-based intermediate nuclear weapons? Canada? Mexico? Putin is shining on about Cuba. What this is actually about is NATO. It exposes NATO to Russia's ability to deploy land based missiles outside of Europe. That includes Ukraine.

In a real evaluation of Trump's ideas to end the INF, it is more of the hatred of NATO that is evident and more and more the favoritism of Russia. It was the last year or two that Ukraine reconstituted it's short range missiles. I suppose Putin realizes the expertise of Ukrainians and their former nuclear capacity, so this fits right into Putin's aggression regarding Ukraine.

Putin realizes the USA can now place short range and medium range missiles in Europe. That is not planned, but, if Russia is going to be aggressive against Europe that might happen. There is no missile treaty of any kind between Ukraine and Russia as any summit between the two countries has already been violated by Russia.

I think it is becoming more evident what went on in Helsinki. 

I think Putin is jealous of the bromance between Trump and Kim Jong Un.

Putin was strutting his testosterone before the meeting in Vietnam. As usual, it is always brinkmanship. Putin isn't writing or receiving "beautiful letters" and he has to get attention some way.

To begin with, does anyone actually think Vladimir Putin is going to display the ONLY weapon he has to defeat a nuclear attack to the public? ONLY weapon? Give me a break.


If this is Putin's best hope, then he doesn't have one. There are a million holes in what he is saying about a nuclear confrontation with The West. The article about the Project 20380 is from 2017. This is not new.


Kim is a lot younger than Putin, so it is understanding why Putin is strutting his stuff.


The INF treaty was written by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. The treaty has existed a while. Basically, it only deals with short and medium LAND BASED missiles. 


500–1,000 kilometers (310–620 mi) (short medium-range)

1,000–5,500 km (620–3,420 mi) (intermediate-range)
The treaty does not apply to air or sea launched missiles.

So, the hypersonic missile was never covered under the INF. If this is what Trump is referring to in ending the INF treaty then he has no basis for his actions. Canceling the INF without due cause is a reason for Russia to be hopping mad.


USA effected missiles with the INF Treaty according to NATO.


BGM-109G Ground Launched Cruise Missile (decommissioned)

Pershing 1a (decommissioned)
Pershing II (decommissioned)

Soviet Union effect missiles with the INF Treaty


SS-4 Sandal (decommissioned)

SS-5 Skean (decommissioned)
SS-12 Scaleboard (decommissioned)
SS-20 Saber (decommissioned)
SS-23 Spider (decommissioned)
SSC-X-4 Slingshot (Mobile missile launcher)

It could be argued the INF Treaty was old and ineffective in modern day war, however, in dissolving the treaty it allows Russia to begin to build is' SOVIET missiles all over again. So, all in all, it was best to leave it alone.


It also could be said the INF Treaty was between the Soviet Union and the USA. The Soviet Union doesn't exist anymore.
 

To just regroup on all this, if Putin is stating he has some radical new missile that will turn the USA into a nuclear wasteland, that is overstating Russia's abilities. Somehow the Russian audience is supposed to come away with the idea that Russia's defense or offensive first strike weapons are radically new and the USA is somehow behind the eight ball. The USA has known about this missile for a long time. Yes, I consider AT LEAST two years a long time. Now, either the Russians deployed these missiles in response to the USA weapons deployed or they really have no other measure of national security and Putin figured, "Go ahead, why not?"

Vladimir Putin is a brinkman. He has practiced brinkmanship in the world for as long as he has been a leader for Russia. Ask any USA general retired or otherwise and they will tell the stories of how the Russians showed up with all kinds of bluster about their ability to begin a nuclear war. So, this speech is not a surprise, the only aspect of this which is NEW is the fact he is making it before Trump meets in Vietnam with North Korea. Like I said, either Putin is jealous beyond imagination of the affection between Kim and Trump or Trump is scared down to his skivvies of Putin. I do believe Trump has a yellow stripe down his back to put dandelions to shame.

The Russian Navy (click here) operates five Project 20380 corvettes and another five are under construction

...The targets, which Kiselyov described as U.S. presidential or military command centers, also included Fort Ritchie, a military training center in Maryland closed in 1998, McClellan, a U.S. Air Force base in California closed in 2001, and Jim Creek, a naval communications base in Washington state....