Wednesday, August 25, 2010

The latest 'housing' numbers are actually 'good news.'

There have been eleven fiscal quarters since the global financial collapse of 2008.  There is no way the housing market was going to rebound in a short period of time.

During the Bush/Cheney years the housing market was used to 'float' their economy.  When the collaspe occurred there was a glut of buildings, both private and commercial on the market.  Where did everyone believe the prices of homes were going, up?

There are several reasons for the continued foreclosures and some are not that noble.

Strategic defaults make up nearly 20 percent of mortgage delinquencies

by Kim Miller

...“Both delinquency (AKA Pre-Foreclosure) and strategic default — as we define these terms — continue at high levels, but in Q2 2009 we see the first evidence of a break in the upward trend. After a seasonal reduction in both measures from Q4 2008 to Q1 2009, the Q2 numbers then declined further, breaking the historical trend of quarter-over-quarter increases; however, we will need to analyze the data from Q3 and Q4 to validate this,” said Peter Carroll, Partner at Oliver Wyman....

The Pre-Foreclosure Rate is probably followed more closely than the Foreclosure Rate in the year 2010.  It is when a homeowner begins to 'miss' payments that any program to stop the slide has to go to work.  When homes make it to Foreclosure the 'chance' it will be stopped (at this point in 2010) is slim.

...The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new-home sales had fallen 12.4 percent month to month in July, to a seasonally adjusted 276,000 units — the slowest sales pace on record dating back to 1963. That report came a day after the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes had fallen 27 percent for the same month — the worst showing in 15 years....

When the global fiscal collapse of 2008 occurred the largest number of unemployed were men in construction.  There was actually conversations taking place at the time that women were maintaining their employment versus 'the men in trade professions.'

For eight years under Bush/Cheney, the American people enjoyed an economy based in government spending that constructed every imaginable form of concrete and metal including, "Six Flags Over Lincoln."  I doubt seriously that facility would be built today.  As a matter of fact, TODAY, the Republicans 'use those years' as a reason TO JUSTIFY tax cuts and a 'definition' of a successful economy. 


Government waste 'designed' to support a 'faux economy' during the Bush//Cheney administration has come to roost.  The glut of buildings has to 'bottom out' before there can be a recovery.  There are simply too many buildings in the USA to even believe a recovery was going to be quick. 

The Republican Economy of 2000 - 2008 (Outside the wasteful government deficit spending.) was a 'SPECULATOR'S ECONOMY,'  It was not based in manufacturing, it was based in speculation and people believed they were going to be okay.  After all The American Dream was based in owning a home.  What could go wrong if a family decided to take a second mortgage to purchase a 'shore home' or a 'home in the mountains' or to purchase 'rental units.'

The Republican Economy of 2000 to 2008 was a 'gimmick.'  It was speculative and it WAS NOT REAL.  It was eight years of a faux economy.  Plain and simple.  Americans didn't 'make anything' to earn their economic growth, they recirculated 'their asset wealth' BACK into an economy that was absent without their money.  An asset doesn't contribute to an economy UNLESS it is converted to 'cash' and 'spent.'

At any rate...

I believe we are seeing the slowing of 'the loss' and it is finally bottoming out.

I found this article interesting and a bit of a weather vane.

Sector Snap: Toll's 3Q profit lifts housing stocks  (click title to entry - thank you)

The Associated Press
August 25, 2010, 2:59PM ET

Investors that own shares of homebuilders shrugged off reports about a slumping housing market after Toll Brothers Inc. ended a streak of 11 straight quarterly losses.
The Horsham, Pa., luxury builder posted a $27.3 million profit, or 16 cents a share, for its fiscal third quarter. That compares with a loss of $472.3 million, or $2.93 a share, last year.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected the homebuilder to lose 14 cents per share.
Toll's stock rose 83 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $17.02 in afternoon trading.
The stock of D.R. Horton Inc. rose 48 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $10.45 in afternoon trading, while KB Home added 53 cents, or 5.3 percent, to $10.57.
Shares of PulteGroup Inc., the nation's largest homebuilder, edged up 22 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $8.06. And Lennar Corp.'s stock rose 48 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $13.38.
Luxury builder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.'s stock rose 9 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $3.83.
Investors seemed to ignore other harbingers Wednesday of a housing slow down....

Remember the article about the real estate investor that sold his 'business sector' JUST IN TIME to avoid the global economic collapse?  Remember?  That occurred about a year or so before the collaspe.  I called them 'Tea Leaves.' 
If someone whom sincerely cares about the USA and its economic recovery; they don't look to political pundits for 'the real story.'  They look for the 'tea leaves.'
Hello?   It is sincerely looking as though the worst is beginning to be over.  When investors begin to see opportunity in 'bad news' there is every reason to believe we are seeing a new kind of 'uptick' to the economy.


Pamerla Geller is a fear monger. She has no interest in Lower Manhattan except to use the Mosque site as an icon to her 'campaign of fear.'

Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan joined the USA miltiary to protect the USA from terrorist networks such as al Qaeda.  He is honored at Arlington National Cemetary.  There is absolutely no reason why a Mosque should not be built near the September 11th site.  Absolutely no reason and anyone that contributes to the 'campaign of hate' have every reason to be ashamed of themselves.

I sincerely believe Pamela Geller is the Islamic equivalent of the KKK.  Knock it off.  She is a political operative trying to keep the 'culture of fear' alive for her own priorities.

...When it came to a post-high school career decision, there was nothing Kareem R. Khan wanted to do other than join the Army.   (click title to entry - thank you)
Spurred by the Septermber 11 attacks on the World Trade Center, Khan, a 2005 graduate of Southern Regional High School, wanted to show that not all Muslims were fanatics and that many, like him, were willing to lay their lives down for their country, America. He enlisted immediately after graduation and was sent to Iraq in July 2006.
So when his father, Feroze "Roy" Khan, saw three soldiers walking up to his door on Monday, he knew what it meant.
Specialist Kareem Khan, 20, was killed with four others earlier this week when a blast destroyed a house he and members of his division, the Stryker Brigade Combat Team, were clearing in Baqouba, Iraq.
An interpreter and 12 soldiers were also injured in the explosion, the Army said.

"It's something I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy," Feroze Khan, 49, said Thursday night at his home in the Ocean Acres section of Manahawkin.
Khan's faith in Islam is important now to his father and stepmother, Nisha Khan, because they want to make sure people in America know that Muslims like Kareem were willing to fight for their country....

"The Issues" are under sold in removing Murkowski from the Senate.

It was more then obvious Lisa Murkowski was sitting in the back pocket of Wall Street when she tried to stop the EPA from regulating Greenhouse Gases.  The Alaskan citizens are senstivie to the realtiy of the Climate Crisis.  No one bothers to talk about it as a reason to worry about disregarding the seriousness to the impact on political choices in Alaska.

A statewide, representative telephone survey entitled “Alaskan Opinions on Global (click title to entry - thank you)
Warming” was conducted with 1,016 Alaskan adults May 9 – June 29, 2006.  The results show that most Alaskans consider global warming a serious threat.  The study, funded by the National Science Foundation, was conducted in Alaska by Craciun Research Group2 as part of a scientific study commissioned by Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz of Decision Research3 through the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED)4.
Highlights of the survey:

• Over 81% of Alaskans are convinced that global warming is happening....

...Table 26: Native Villages and Coastal Erosion

“Four native villages are in imminent danger from coastal erosion and flooding. Do you think the State of Alaska should help to:”...
Miller Holds Narrow Lead; Parnell Leads Field
Tue, August 24, 2010

Posted in Alaska News, Alaska Politics, Elections 2010
Joe Miller held a razor-thin lead over incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski in the Republican primary late Tuesday evening.
Miller led the incumbent 51.47 pct (40,841) to 48.53 pct (38,507) with just more than 61.2 pct of the precincts counted.
A Miller victory would mirror other anti-incumbent wins around the country. The Murkowski-Miller race jumped into the national spotlight when Miller was endorsed by former Governor Sarah Palin....