Thursday, January 10, 2008

Post assassination, Pakistan's escalating violence prior to elections. Could it be an anarchy which is leading to nuclear concerns.

Lahore bomb carnage described - click at title to entry

People who witnessed the blast in Lahore give their accounts of what they experienced.
"I was on my way from Canal Road, when there was a massive sound and my car shook," said Tariq, a motorist who witnessed the blast in the Pakistani city of Lahore.
"I stopped the car immediately, and got out, close to GPO Chowk."
GPO (General Post Office) Chowk is an intersection in central Lahore.
It is adjacent to the Lahore high court building where Thursday's massive bombing took place.
"The first thing I recall afterwards is the smoke... it was everywhere," Tariq told the BBC...

If this isn't tragic enough the American Neocons need to be reined in before there is too much more speculation. Let's first remember the Brits are in Pakistan investigating Bhutto's assassination. I can't imagine the escalating violence is very new to Pakistan either. However, there is a report by the UN that is troubling and it needs to be noted by those sincerely interested in security of the region.

However, there is a report by Neocon Joe Lieberman, now Republican pundit and McCain Vice Presidential hopeful that is full of exaggerated 'clauses' without foundation of proof.

There is a lot of internal struggle for control insuring sovereignty and all too often facts are clouded by rhetorical gossip, especially in Pakistan where 'the word' is frequently a vehicle to assign emotion to what should be cool headed logic. Much of Islam operates on words rather than facts, which insures the violence over stability of government. Musharraf in recent dealings over Bhutto's death was noted to use 'that strategy' hoping emotional tensions would provide an allowance of an alternate reality, rather than the fact finding mission of experts.

To put it plainly, the word is greater than the sword in Pakistan, even if the words are lies. That is all too often the case with Neocons that jump to conclusion, such as Lieberman, when escalating fear will serve their political purpose. That is what occurred in the lead up to the illegal and immoral invasion into Iraq and that is what Neocons like Lieberman and the Murdock media services, including his newspapers are again attempting.

That stated, the article below spells out a fact about the existing administration in Pakistan. They are trying to hold onto control. Not necessarily of the country, but, of the propaganda that 'might' insure them to continue to control their power, even in the reality that to date they have done nothing to insure a lead up to peaceful elections such as insuring the protection of the very lives of the candidates. It would be helpful if the date for the election were set and candidates were insured security to allow a progression to those elections without further interruption. That just might quell the violence. Lies by Musharraf will only escalate it and manipulation by opportunists like Lieberman can only insure more media exploitation rather than facts.

A senior Pakistani security official elaborated for Asia Times Online (click here), "We have actually been thrown into a deep quagmire where we are not left with many options. The CIA's presence in Pakistan has made it impossible for Pakistan to handle the Taliban problem independently and through dialogue. On the other hand, there is no military solution on the horizon against the Taliban and another [Pakistani army] operation against militants would cause more than serious repercussions.

" The official, speaking on condition of anonymity as his job does not allow him to speak on the record, continued, "Now we are at a crossroad and we feel threatened that if this problem escalates it may give Western powers and their regional allies a chance to justify an attack on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Therefore, we are walking a tightrope where, on the one hand our strategic ties with the West are at risk if we don't adhere to their demands, but on the other hand our own internal security is at risk.

The IAEA is more than correct to be concerned regarding the instability in Pakistan and a Paksitan government in denial of it's own reality is more dangerous than one that can ask for support to return stability and reduce the opportunity to extremists.

IAEA chief, el Baradei, voices concern over safety of Pakistani nukes news
10 January 2008
Beirut: The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN atomic watchdog, Mohamed el Baradei, has added his voice to mounting concerns over the safety of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. In an interview to Arabic daily Al-Hayat on Tuesday, Baradei expressed his fear that it could fall into extremist hands.
"I fear that chaos... or an extremist regime could take root in that country which has 30 to 40 warheads," el Baradei was quoted as telling the pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat .
He stressed that he was "worried that nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of an extremist group in Pakistan or in Afghanistan."

Concerns about the safety of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal mounted ever since president Musharraf imposed a state of emergency in the troubled country in November last year.

http://www.domain-b.com/defence/general/20080110_nukes.html

Perez Musharraf finally admits he perfers providing a haven for terrorists than allow allies into eliminate them.

Pakistan Warns US Not to Enter Northwest (click here)
1 hour ago
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — President Pervez Musharraf warned that U.S. troops would be regarded as invaders if they crossed into Pakistan's border region with Afghanistan in the hunt for al-Qaida or Taliban militants, according to an interview published Friday.
Musharraf, whose popularity has plummeted amid a surge in extremist attacks in recent months, also told Singapore's The Straits Times that he would resign if opposition parties tried to impeach him following next month's parliamentary elections.
Pakistan is under growing U.S. pressure to crack down on militants in its tribal regions close to the Afghan border.
The rugged area has long been considered a likely hiding place for al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and his top deputy Ayman al-Zawahri, as well as an operating ground for Taliban militants planning attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan.
The New York Times reported last week that Washington was considering expanding the authority of the Central Intelligence Agency and the military to peruse aggressive covert operations within the tribal regions.
Musharraf told the Straits Times that U.S. troops would "certainly" be considered invaders if they set foot in the tribal regions.
"If they come without our permission, that's against the sovereignty of Pakistan. I challenge anybody coming into our mountains," he said in the interview in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. "They would regret that day."
Musharraf, who seized power in a military coup eight years ago, is also under growing domestic pressure.
The party of slain opposition leader Benazir Bhutto and the other main opposition grouping are predicted to make gains in the Feb. 18 polls. They have vowed to oust Musharraf if they emerge as winners. Musharraf is seen as vulnerable to impeachment over his decision to fire Supreme Court judges and suspend the constitution last year.
"If that (impeachment) happens, let me assure that I'd be leaving office before they would do anything. If they won with this kind of majority and they formed a government that had the intention of doing this, I wouldn't like to stick around," he said. "I would like to quit the scene."

Same 'ole, same 'ole. The Quagmire Returns, AKA "Get out to save face" or fight a 100 year war with no USA Treasury

Patraeus to An Albar, "Okay, okay we'll do it your way, but, can the numbers look better before Osama makes another video tape !"


The Iraq War is already a victory for the extremists. The USA under Petraeus surrendered to the will of the Sunnis in order to stabilize An Albar. When the region became quasi-stabilized there was a cohesive initiative to the remaining Sunni Sheiks. That was 'coined' by the USA as a 'winning strategy.' It was, in fact, neither innovative or winning. The players never changed. What did change were the colors of the USA flag, it went from red, white and blue to white overnight when Petraeus was harnessed to correct a failing Bush/Cheney crony war.

In December 2007, Osama bin Laden aired a video to refocus al Qaeda back to defeat of the Sunni Sheiks allied to carry out a strategy that would provide autonomy to them in Iraq.

New Bin Laden tape warns Sunnis against working with US (click here)
Ed Pilkington in New York
Monday December 31, 2007
The Guardian
Osama bin Laden has directed the fury of al-Qaida against a new target: Sunni Arab leaders in Iraq who have turned against insurgents backed by the terror group and are working with US forces to end violence in key areas of the country.
In his fifth recorded message this year, Bin Laden released an audiotape on Saturday which warned Sunni Arabs who had joined local US-led security initiatives that they had "betrayed the nation and brought disgrace and shame to their people. They will suffer in life and the afterlife."
The al-Qaida chief's concentration on Sunni tribal leaders who dared to break ranks with the insurgency underlined the changing picture inside Iraq in recent weeks. The transformation is most defined in Anbar province in the west of the country where coalitions of Iraqis, supported with US money and expertise and now numbering up to 70,000 fighters, have sharply reduced violence in the area....


The move by Sunni Arabs in An Albar is viewed as a victory to the Republican Regime in the USA. When it fact it is neither a victory or an alliance. While the Sunnis are seeking autonomy in relation to the violent influence of al Qaeda, it is not forming a cooperative central government. As a matter of fact, the three 'provincial' authorities that comprise Iraq are further from any common goal than ever. THEREFORE, the "Benchmarks" aren't being met and therefore the USA withdrawal from Iraq insured. The Bush/Cheney strategy is still political, calling 'the surge' a victory when in fact it has caused a build up of arms and 'the armed' that are in opposition to each other; while distracting from the fact the 'Unity Government' of Iraq is in complete failure. All this while tensions continue to flair between Turkey, a supposed ally of the USA and Northern Iraq.

...Focusing on training and arming all sides in the conflict has been counterproductive (click here) in achieving the main goal of the "surge" - providing the space for political reconciliation. Provincial elections and the referendum on the status of Kirkuk were postponed in 2007. The Iraqi Parliament was stalemated for most of the year and when it was functioning much of its activities were in opposition to that of the Iraqi cabinet. And the period for amending the constitution in a fast-track manner, which was the carrot for the Sunnis to help pass the constitution, has been extended for the fourth time. Politically, 2008 appears to be the most difficult to date.
These political tensions will come to a head as Bush and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki move forward in signing a formal agreement for the future US troop presence. This agreement, scheduled for completion by July 31, will likely coincide with the completion of the US Embassy. Both of these events will signal what Iraqis feared when the US invaded - that the occupation will become permanent, giving the US a dominant position with military bases, preferential access to oil and open access to Iraqi markets. With opponents in the parliament, the militias, the insurgency, and Maliki being in an extremely weak position, completion of this agreement could easily send the country into chaos....

Now the upside to all this, is that Iraq is ready to take care of itself. Only it isn't because it will remain a cohesive country but one that will divide into autonomous areas of self rule. The International Community that hold contracts and debt will state that is the worse thing that can happen to Iraq, but, the reality is 'the walls' are being built that separate Sunni from Shia and the forces are being trained and armed with the appearance of being a growing Iraqi miliary and police, when in fact they are 'sectored' into Sunni and Shia 'protectorates.' The 'surge' has little to do with providing stability for Iraq as a single country, but, it provided enough Americans to hold the violence in An Albar to a dull roar while a united Sunni force could be formed to defend itself.

Petraeus Says Iraqis Are Ready To Step Up (click here)
As The Surge Progresses, The Army Strives To Place Power In The Hands Of The Iraqi People
BAGHDAD, Jan. 5, 2008

(CBS) For David Petraeus, it's the beginning of year number two in the top job - and it's a year with one big question: what happens when the surge is over? By this July, the number of troops in Iraq, which peaked at 180,000, will shrink to 130,000. Defense Secretary Gates has said he'd like it to reach 100,000 by the end of 2008. CBS News correspondent Jeff Glor met with Petraeus before a briefing in Yousifiyah - a poor, rural region near Baghdad that used to be a hot spot for insurgents. "Al Qaeda has been pushed away and pushed around and killed, captured and so forth," said General Petraeus. "And that's what we have to continue to do." The challenge is doing that with a lot fewer troops....

If there is to be a Civil War in Iraq it will be to define the final borders of the three provincial authorities while Baghdad is abandoned as the country's capital and financial center. Baghdad will fall to the Shia. In time after the dust has settled, the land will once again be the holy lands of the Muslims and cooperation will build in economic cooperation to facilitate 'the commerce of the pilgrams.'



BAGHDAD, Jan. 5, 2008

January 9th, 2008 4:45 pm

9 US soldiers killed in Iraq in 2 days
Associated Press
BAGHDAD - Nine American soldiers were killed in the first two days of a new American drive to kill al-Qaida in Iraq fighters holed up in districts north of the capital, the U.S. military said Wednesday.
Six soldiers were killed and four were wounded Wednesday in a booby-trapped house in Diyala province, where joint U.S.-Iraqi forces were driving through a difficult web of lush palm and citrus groves, farmland and fertile river bottoms.
The military also announced that three U.S. soldiers were killed and two were wounded Tuesday in an attack in Salahuddin province. The operation began Tuesday.





We don't belong in Iraq !





We never did !