Tuesday, January 27, 2015

The point of view is valid.

The air will react to cold temperatures. The footballs at the Patriot game weren't soaked in water though. It was raining and the balls were exposed to the air as well as human hands, so this experiement while well done has it's flaws in mimicking the actual temperature dynamics the balls were exposed to, but, it is a valid point of view. The only way to determine if the air was effected by temperature or mischief is to eliminate all the potentials within the potential of mischief. If temperature is an issue, the balls have to be examined by officials on the field and not in the equipment room. I am quite sure the temperatures in the equipment room is very different than the conditions on the field.

Southern oil men have built pipelines in the north without an appreciation of temperature.

If there are questions regarding pipelines and what might have gone wrong with an explosion or leak either during or after an investigation refer to "The International Fuel Gas Code." (click here)

With an increase of pipeline failures in the USA in January, the extreme cold could effect metal and/or polyethylene. 

I actually think plastic pipelines become more rigid in cold temperatures than metal does. Metal has a different tolerance to cold than polyethylene

Pipeline Plastics Energy Pipe is a PE 4710 (click here) high performance bimodal high density polyethylene (HDPE) pipe designed for Oil & Gas Gathering, Multi‐Phase Fluids, Raw Water, Brine Water, Coal Bed Methane, Landfill Methane and Leachate. It has superior toughness and resistance to the harsh environments found in these demanding applications.

The polyethylene is probably cheaper.

From the international code:

13 Flange gaskets.
Material for gaskets shall be capable of withstanding the design temperature and pressure of the piping system, and the chemical constituents of the gas being conducted, without change to its chemical and physical properties. The effects of fire exposure to the joint shall be considered in choosing material. Acceptable materials include metal (plain or corrugated), composition, and aluminum "O” rings and spiral wound metal gaskets. When a flanged joint is opened, the gasket shall be replaced. Full-face gaskets shall be used with all bronze and cast-iron flanges.

Gaskets are really important things and when they deteriorate leaks follow. Even if they don't deteriorate, but, are effected by the temperature either in expanding or contracting leaks will follow, too. If it is a natural gas pipeline there will be an explosion.

Metal doesn't fragment in the cold. This demonstration is a man breaking high density polyethylene in his hands. Now realize these pipes are not laid that deeply in the ground and the ground will expand and CONTRACT with the temperature of the what surrounds it. In the case of this demonstration it is air that surrounds the polyethylene. The ground that surrounds the polyethylene pipeline holds the cold temperature consistently and longer than the air would.

The March 15 contracts on oil Brent Crude is $49.30 per barrel.

The March 15 contracts on WTI Crude is $45.78.

January 27, 2015
By David Shepard

(Reuters) - Oil prices will stay lower for longer (click here) after more than halving since June, Goldman Sachs' (GS.N) chief commodity analyst said, arguing in his latest research note that demand growth in China and other emerging economies is set to slow.
Goldman's Jeff Currie, who rose to prominence forecasting oil's spike above $100 a barrel last decade, said the rise of U.S. shale output had realigned energy markets, making China a bigger and more important consumer than the United States. "For the first time since the 1940s, the U.S. is no longer the world's largest (oil) importer," Currie wrote in the note dated Jan. 26, which is part of the bank's 'Top of Mind' research series on macroeconomic trends....

The major oil countrie such as Exxon, currently fourth with 5.3 million barrels per day and Chevron now ninth with production of 3.5 million barrels per day have announced a cut in production.

New York City is a heat island. Yes, even in the winter,

This storm was originally at sea and due to a descending cold air mass from the northwest the Juno storm system was forced into a smaller space and a faction of the storm was forced onshore. The eye of this storm did not reach landfall.
...The average difference (click here) between surface temperatures in a developed versus a rural area is 18 to 27 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the EPA. On a hot summer day in the city, dry surfaces like pavements and roofs can be up to 90 degrees hotter than the air temperature! And when the heat gets trapped in the atmosphere, the city doesn't cool off at night--heat from the urban infrastructure continues to be released in the air, making it even hotter after sunset. Yay, humans, making the world more miserable....

The New York City area is more or less a metropolis. The entire area is warmer than areas outside this industrialized land. Understanding what occurred with diminished snow fall than expected is mostly caused from the inherent heat because of the intense region. As the wind blew and the snow fell it was tempered by the inherent heat already in the air. If these region was that warm, the snowfall would have been the same as Long Island and Massachusetts. 

Should this area adjust to the idea of being a heat island and change the prediction? That is the call of meteorologists. As a rule there is no such thing as "Heat Island Effects" in meteorology as far as I know. There may be some research going on to better define it. 

As the wind cooled the air and there was still precipitation there was growing snow fall. I remember yesterday when the storm was entering landfall with it's peripheral bands the snow fall was scant. As time went by the snow fall increased and the wind picked up. The more wind the colder the air. The colder the air the more snow reaches the ground. The early snowfall manifested as large, wet snowflakes which dictates a warmer air mass allowing for that type of snowflake and slush. It wasn't a frozen snowflake. Frozen snow flakes started later and produced increasing measure of snow on the ground.

The authorities were correct in acting on what they knew to protect the public. Until more is known about global warming and it's storms this will remain a soft prediction area.

Just because the seasons change doesn't mean the sun has stopped heating the city buildings.

The top 10 cities (click here) with the most intense summer urban heat islands (average daily urban-rural  temperature difference) over the past 10 years are: 

  • Las Vegas (7.3°F)
  • Albuquerque (5.9°F
  • Denver (4.9°F)
  • Portland (4.8°F)
  • Louisville (4.8°F)
  • Washington, D.C. (4.7°F)
  • Kansas City (4.6°F)
  • Columbus (4.4°F)
  • Minneapolis (4.3°F)
  • Seattle (4.1°F)

  • On average across all 60 cities, urban summer temperatures were 2.4°F hotter than rural temperatures. 
    The Weather Channel 24 hour temperature change map. 
    Kindly note the temperature change in the New York - New Jersey Area the change was positive and not negative. There is a heat island effect in this region. The universities in New Jersey and New York need to be tasked to answer this phenomena. Some of can be attributed to water temperature near the ocean, however, there are many other states that have ocean shorelines as well and still has a net loss of temperature over 24 hours. "Heat Island Effect," I guarantee it.

The authorities in the Northeast USA did a great job.

Was it inconvenient? Yes.

Was work postponed for another day? Yes

Are you live?

I heard the estimate of no casualties. That is unheard of. There are always some casualties, but, to have everyone come through this storm without deaths is a real accomplishment. Families are intact today when they might not have been otherwise. 

This may not have been a historic storm, but, it was not insignificant. There were winds over 80 mph. That might be tolerable in a hurricane, but, not in these temperatures and drifting snow.

I understand there was support coming from a distance to minimize the loss of power. Thank you.

Congratulations all around.
Michael Froman, (click here) US Trade Representative, states the Trans-Pacific Partnership is to be made public before the President signs it.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang calls for world peace and economic growth at the Davos Annual Summit.

He also brings a focus to a planet under stress. 

He states global development through innovation is important. He sees all countries enjoying development to improve their infrastructure. He calls for structural reform.

He calls attention to microeconomies. That is how the Middle Class is being categorized in his speech. He is correct. The Middle Class is a microeconomy, a very important one. He see the people of China as talented and hard working. 

China called for a private-public partnership. This is a demonstration of the willingness of China to loosen it's policies to allow private ownership within China. This is new for China.
This is a view of The Weather Channel's temperature map. The continental USA has cold temperatures across the entire country. Even Florida has temperatures in the fifties and sixties. To be noted is the 72 degrees in the Atlantic Ocean. That is Bermuda.

Bermuda is in the same air flow as the rest of the country, but, the ocean water is warm enough to fend off the cold temperature of the air.

UNISYS Goes West infrared satellite (click here for 12 hour loop)
January 27, 2015