Tuesday, August 02, 2011

The problem with these recessions is that they happened frequently.

Sometimes a generation seemed to be burdened with nothing but recession.  As a matter of fact the USA from 1864 to 2009 experienced 33 recessive cycles including the Great Depression.

The average contraction lasting 16 months.

The contraction began to diminish in its length to trough from onset as the yeas went by.  

From 1854 - 1919 (16 cycles)  the average contraction was 22 months.

From 1919 - 1945  ( 6 cycles) the average contraction was 18 months.

From 1945 - 2009 (11 cycles) the average contraction was 11 months.

You don't have to take my word for it, the link at the title to this entry has a graph I found interesting.

These are some of the "Trough Years" of the 1800 recessions in the USA.

December 1854

December 1858  - 18

June 1861  -  8

December 1867  -  32

The red numbers next to the date of the trough of the USA  

recession reflect the number of months it took to reach the trough

from the initial onset of the recession.

December 1870  -  18

March 1879  -  65

May 1885  -  38

April 1888  -  13

May 1891  -  10

June 1894  -  17

June 1897  -  18 

Many of these troughs and if looking to the Great Depression 

lead to the development of new populous parties in the USA. 

One might worry a great deal if such a 'manifestation' did not 

occur in the USA when the majority of the people were rattled 

to the core.

There have been many parties that have come and gone in the USA.

During 'tough times,' just like the one we are experiencing now there ALWAYS, without fail manifests a POPULOUS party.  In the time of William Jennings Bryan there was a very tough time and he became the focus of the Populous Movement in the late 1800s.  The 1890s to be exact.

What? Man from monkey? Bah. Humbug.

William Jennings Bryan was born in Salem, Illinois, on 19th March, 1860. He graduated from Illinois College in 1881 and after studying law in Chicago he practised law in Jacksonville and Nebraska before being elected to the US Congress in 1890. 

Bryan soon established himself as one of the nation's leading orators. A Democratic with progressive views, he supported campaigns for graduated income tax, regulating child labour and women's suffrage. Defeated in 1894 he was appointed editor of the 
Omaha World Herald before becoming the Democratic presidential candidate in 1896.

His Republican opponent, William McKinley argued for high protective tariffs on foreign goods. This message was popular with America's leading industrialists and with the support of Mark Hanna, McKinley was able to raise $3,500,000 for his campaign. Outspending Bryan by 20 to 1, McKinley easily defeated his opponent by an electoral vote of 271 to 176. Bryan also lost to Republican candidates in 1900 (William McKinley/Theodore Roosevelt) and 1908 (William H. Taft). 

In 1912 Theodore Roosevelt stood as the Progressive Party candidate against William H. Taft. This split the traditional Republican vote and enabled Woodrow Wilson, the Democratic candidate, to be elected. Wilson appointed Bryan as secretary of state. A passionate pacifist, Bryan convinced 31 nations to agree in principle to his proposal to accept a year's cooling-off period during political conflicts, allowing the dispute to be studied by an international commission. 

Anyone remember this guy other than me?

He was an attorney that made Nebraska his home.  With his wife Mary.

Not yet?

Here is one more clue.

In his first years in Lincoln, he traveled to Valentine, Nebraska on business where he met an aspiring young cattleman named James Dahlman. Over the next forty years they remained friends, with Dahlman carrying Nebraska for Bryan twice while he was state Democratic Party chairman. Even when Dahlman became closely associated with Omaha's vice elements, including the breweries, as the city's
 eight-term mayor, he and Bryan maintained a collegial relationship

People rarely refer to his run for the Presidency with affection because of the 'collateral damage' to the Gold Standard.

I was going to save this for the weekend, but, now might prove to be a better time.

For as much as the Tea Party likes to cling to history as its forte', it sadly is not especially in the venue of 'USA Economic History.'

Putin: DiCaprio is a real man!

Action man Vladimir Putin climbs wall

Prime Minister Putin will no doubt return to the Presidency of Russia some time in the future, but, until then he is still one of the most popular figures in the country.  I find it very interesting that he finds himself as a youth political camp after the violence in Norway.  He is a very interesting man and not even close to being the monster the Right Wing Republicans like to paint him.  God forbid you touch his tigers.  Literally, real, wild tigers that are now endangered on Earth.  He is a conservationist at heart.  Russia signed onto the Kyoto Protocol under his hope of achieving enough change in greenhouse gas content of Earth to save Russia from damage.  Russia has some interesting wild lands.  

Hey. The markets aren't getting it right says the political Right Wing of the USA!

At 4:04 PM ET: (click title to entry - thank you) The major averages closed sharply lower today as declining issues outpaced advancing issues on the NYSE by 3.7 to 1. The S.&P. 500 index fell 32.89 points or2.56% to finish at 1,254.05

While the USA Republicans scratch their heads over the bewildering dropping markets in the world as they received 98% of what they wanted according to House Speaker Boner, that lie alone is enough to send most BEARS running for cover.

Now is not the time for Bulls in the market.  It just isn't.

The Debt Ceiling Circus conducted by the Right Wing of the USA House of Representatives was more than the global markets could withstand in the biggest scare since October of 2008.  No one can ask investors to do that all over again.  Their confidence in any possible recovery around the globe has been sharply shaken.  More shaken than the earthquake and resultant tsunami in Japan.  No lie.  The circus in the USA House was terrible when considering this wasn't about policy, it was about ideology.  Policy everyone understands, ideology is stupid.  

Perhaps to realize the anger the global community is reacting to comes best from the Prime Minister of Russia.

"The US is a Parasite (click here)

Aug. 1 2011 - 11:34 pm

Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin said the US was a “parasite” on the world economy, newsire Ria Novosti reported Monday.
Speaking at a Russian political youth camp, Putin said the US consumer relies too much on debt. The country “lives beyond its means, taxing the global economy with its problems and living like a parasite off the global economy and the monopoly of the dollar,” he said.
At the same time, Putin said the US took a “balanced” decision regarding the debt ceiling and noted that without Washington’s approval of the budget bill, the world economy would have stalled.

I believe the financial markets are beginning to come to terms with a paradigm shift.  It is coming because the USA is still again proving it is a juvenile in its political content and not an adult.  

Personally, Russia may be frustrated with the USA and its 'above it all' shenanigans but in all honesty in realizing Russia and China purchase USA Bonds and Notes for their stability, the USE of those foreign monies in foreign affairs has be made these two communist giants angry.  The truth of the matter is the monies China and Russia pour into US securities could be used by them to conduct their own foreign policy rather than US foreign policy.  Those monies are coming into the coffers of the USA and distributed globally to promote US policy abroad.  China and Russia if they withheld their 'interest' in US securities could promote their own foreign policy rather than allowing US foreign policy to dominate the global content.

To some extent, that is echoed in the Russian Prime Minister's statement.  BUT, Russia is always more interested in stable states rather than instability and owning a 'piece of the US' is also reassuring to their policies with the US.  It provides continuity in the dealings with the USA when a country is a 'percentage' shareholder in its policy.

So, that said, the hideous Big Top covering the Capital Dome on the House side has seriously shaken the confidence in global markets and that is still reflected in the Asian markets that opened a short time ago.  This is more than an 'adjustment' to the global economy due to a 'rough ride.'  It is a PUSH toward finding better solutions for the use of 'CAPITAL' in the world.  I seriously believe with such a earth rattling event as what occurred in DC over the past three months the global monetary system is in serious trouble. 

This is one very interesting asteroid. Vesta. But, another time, the debt ceiling law.

About Vesta (click title to entry - thank you).  One has to wonder if the equator is a clear delineation of either gravity or composition of the asteroid.  Possibly both but harder physical elements tend to be heavier and dense then not.    Fascinating to realize this asteroid could lead to a greater understanding of the universe's origin.  Hm.

But, as to President Obama, he did rather well and so did the Democrats.  No one should underestimate the battle ensued by the Democrats elected to the Senate and the House.  They were wonderful.  

Hey, President Obama finally got his bi-partisan vote after 2 and a half years of trying.  Good for him.  I think the Republicans that voted with Democrats were equally as scared of the Tea Baggers, but, that is another discussion.

As to the Debt Ceiling Law.  

The obvious is the President is off the hook for lacking the will to bring about over $4 Trillion in debt reductions to satisfy the credit rating agencies.  The full burden for that falls squarely on Republican failures to reach beyond their ideology.

I also believe President Obama will outline his 'Grand Plan" or deal or whatever they called it in a way throughout the next year and a half to achieve $4 Trillion in debt reductions anyway, so, with that let me begin.

The 'pivotal' event in the new law is a committee of twelve people, all elected, six from each party.  There is 'inherent' understanding about the definition of a committee that dictates cooperation, so if there is a failure on either party it is their failure and not the collective members of the committee.  The Republicans are promising an impasse already and for absolutely no reason except political.  If it isn't obvious to the American people this law is completely political in its origins and purpose than I don't know what should be.  For that reason, the 'handling' of the choice of committee members has to be somewhat mutual so this is what I propose as a member of the citizens the President called on to bring pressure to Congress.

Both parties should come up with six candidates each of those they would want to be on a committee that would safeguard their political interests, which in the Democrats caucus, would mean safeguarding the entitlements, education and the health of the country beside agenda items proven helpful to the American people.  Of that 'Dream Team' list it should be submitted to the opposite caucus.  Democrats would submit their six favorites to the Republican caucus and the Republicans would submit their six members to the committee.  Of those six chosen three can be eliminated by the opposite caucus.  It doesn't have to be written into the bill to do this.  Is is between two caucuses in the country and ground rules and the room and the table and the chairs can be decided within that authority.  Again, there are 'inherent' understandings to all of this law and if either caucus doesn't nail down those 'inherent' definitions from the beginning then they will never achieve an agreement.

Once three have been eliminated by the opposite caucus, the same caucus must draw up their list of potential committee members from the opposite caucus and the remaining vacancies can then be filled by those chosen by the opposite caucus.  At the end of the brief process the committee will have been formed by consensus so there can be no 'in fighting' as to whom became part of the committee or as to why.  I would suggest for every vacancy up to three there should be two Democrats chosen by the Republicans to submit back to the Democrats for decision.  At same would hold true for Republicans.  If there are three Republicans removed from the delegates to the committee by the Democrats than there needs to be six other Republicans chosen by the Democrats to submit to the Republicans for decision.  At the end of this process there will be three from the extremes and most likely three from the middle of both parties and that would leave a majority of six delegates to the committee as moderates.  The three each from the extremes are there to balance the middle in their decisions as the extremes will bring 'information' more than any reason to vote on reforms.  Sort of like advisers to the committee so as to not leave any agenda item of any caucus without representation.

This process will eliminate extremist majority from either caucus and place the moderates, which is where Independent Voters live, in the best outcomes for all.

Now, to the work at hand.

By November the committee of twelve will have to have completed their work.  Enough time, if not sufficient, given there will be other responsibilities these committee members will have both in a general assembly of the House and Senate and on their committees they always serve on.  The work has to be intense, to the point and void of obstructionism.  There is sincerely no time for that mess.

If there are protracted debates from outside sources than the committee itself the process will be tainted so the committee needs to limit its conclusions until finished.  This is a blind process as there will be no Public Comment Period.  It is unfortunate, but, also fortunate because lobbyists are completely eliminated in a 'CLOSED COMMITTEE' with a final decision published upon their completion.  There is no Congressional vote about this either.  This is strictly to remove 'cost' to the current national debt.  The committee's work is vital and final.  It is slightly un...NO...it is very undemocratic EXCEPT it was agreed upon by elected majorities in both the House and Senate.  This is different than normal committee work these legislators are used to, so I suggest they be seasoned and able to come to their final decisions with clear authority.  I don't believe this committee is a place for Freshman of either party.  These folks have to know what they are doing.  I will say this, with such elite powers as this committee contains there is a strong possibility as soon as it concluded and published there will be lawsuits that will make it to the Supreme Court for its lack of transparency alone.  This committee is not going to be doing popular work from either party.

Then come the decisions.

The committee process will fall apart if the committee members are difficult to work with.  The 'default' parameters will kick in and I am happy about it.  So, the Democrats have nothing in this measure that will cause any Democrat a moment's worry.  This is profoundly wonderful new to any 'default' finding.  A clear one half of something like $1.5 Trillion will have to come from the military.  I am all about that and I congratulate the committee if they can't come to an agreement.  THAT, while SSI, Medicare and Medicaid are protected.  NOooooooo Problem.

I am down with that.  

Now, these measures don't start until 2013.  Inherent to the committees work is a clear understanding that The Bush Era Tax Cuts are ending December 2012.  INHERENT to the committees work is the CLEAR understanding The Bush Era Tax Cuts are ending.  FOR  EVERYONE.  That is a good thing.  Absolutely.

President Obama having washed his hands of the Bush Tax Cuts should, if he already hasn't decided that, come before the Congress in 2012 with a Budget and within the State of the Union speech having rid the USA of the current tax structure.

With the end of the Bush Tax Cuts the President can now move with Simpson-Bowles to remove all the deductions within the American income tax structure and apply lower taxes for ALL Americans with and larger base.  I strongly recommend the President direct Congress to act quickly to remove the burden from the Middle Class as to supporting deductibles from the tax structure to close the gap both in the amount paid and the responsibility of all Americans to contribute to their country.  I suggest he base his 'transition' Budget on the realization that the new income tax base will be its foundation.  He can 'surf' that reality however he finds it best.

The Bush Tax Cuts will end December 31, 2012 and the new income tax definitions void of deductions will begin on January 1, 2013.  Perfect.  

The work on the income tax code and the military 'stability' of the USA has to be done before any address of entitlements.  Entitlements can be slated to begin work in 2014 after the Affordable Care Act comes into play and all is known to the impact of the Congress on the 'jobs picture' within the country.  

When a known 'income' level is reached under the new income tax structure then and only then can a clear path to addressing entitlements begin.  

As to the GAP the Republicans created with their political posturing over the past year in regard to the debt ceiling.  President Obama, with his cabinet can find places to remove additional 'costs' to the national debt for his State of the Union address of 2012.  The global market place will probably be satisfied after the 2012 State of the Union indicating a total of over $4.2 Trillion in debt adjustment and no downgrade will be necessary.  If a downgrade occurs before the State of the Union, it will only be for a brief time until the President clearly maps out his priorities for the Congress to remove the stigma and return the USA to its usual luster.

On the side of reason, the rating agencies won't want to upset the global markets very much if this is simply a 'transition' to $4 plus trillion in indebtedness difficulty.  So, with an understanding there will be minimally over $2 trillion coming from this new law, the future 'address' by the President will be well contemplated and will receive attention from people that are seeking stability in the global markets.  AND.  If the economic picture is less traumatized by the current jobs draw down by the Republicans by then, all the better.  This jobs slow down is directly the work of the Republicans and no one else.  The credibility of the USA does fall constitutionally on the Executive Branch when it comes to providing assessment and guidance to the legislature.  

I think does it for now.

About time she came back to work. Her return went beyond the House to the very people in her district. Well done.

...In the District (click title to entry - thank you) that she represents those closest to her smiled from ear to ear, with a lump in their throats and tears in their eyes. C.J. Karamargin said, "It was a very emotional moment, I don't think there was a dry eye in our office."
It was hard to find a dry eye anywhere in front of the television sets showing the scene. In the nation's Capitol Republicans and Democrats alike were overjoyed to see Gabby back at work. "I think it is a testament to her own determination and her focus but also to her patriotism. This is a really important issue for the United States and this is a critical time," said Karamargin.
Other survivors of the January 8th Tucson shooting were thrilled to see Congresswoman Giffords back in Washington. "I was overwhelmed, I have such a big smile on my face this is so healing, so therapeutic for everybody," said Suzi Hileman. Hileman was shot three times by the same gunman who shot Giffords. She's happy to see how far Gabby's come, but not surprised. "She's inspiring! Rehab is very very hard and I know what it took to get there, to travel and to stand, and do what we elected her to do. I couldn't admire her more," Hileman said.
Bill Badger was also wounded that tragic day. He's been wearing Gabby's name on his wrist ever since."The first thing that came to my mind was the tragic event on January 8th. And the next thing that came to my mind is how great it is to see the recovery that she's made," Badger said....

"Neptune's Spear" - Bin Laden a dead man walking. Good.

This wasn't a Swat Team Operation, it was the USA Navy Seals.  It is interesting that 'old fashioned methodologies' are still the most valuable tool in the Special Ops toolbox.  Nice.  Well done.  Nothing like the mind of a well prepared military operation.  It was like 'clock work' dare I say.

Osama bin Laden was wanted dead or alive with a price on his head on the FBI Most Wanted List.  There isn't any thing else to say.  Just because he was not armed with a weapon when he died doesn't mean he wasn't armed through franchising all the other human beings in the building.  The intelligence estimation was what the Navy Seals had to prepare their mission.  They did it with expertise surmounting any in the world and the precision to match.  It is amazing they pulled it off at all because they were minimally rattled by the loss of a helicopter.  

"Seek and Destroy."  The title alone mapped out the final result and our Seals came home safely.  I am proud of them and always will be.  There was no other option open to them.  They could not take the chance of carrying Osama Bin Laden back to Afghanistan and then back to the USA.  The 'target' would have caused huge problems for the USA military in their engagements and that was far too high a price to pay.

I thank everyone involved including President Obama for having the guts to carry this mission to a final outcome.