Sunday, September 09, 2012

I didn't do anything 'on topic tonight.'

Sorry. I will do something tomorrow. Got a little involved with Leslie and stuff. Had to answer some questions for myself.

Thank you.


There is not one storm in the north Indian Ocean yet this year.

There is usually some in May and June before the season returns in October and November.

The Pacific has primarily high pressure systems. Satellite below.

There were some killer storms in Asia. August, I think.

September 10, 2012
0000 UTC

GOES West Interactive Water Vapor Weather Satellite Images (click title to entry - thank you)

September 10, 2012

Heat transfer system from the Equator to the Arctic Circle. It is robbing the Indian Ocean of moisture. Heat transfer systems are hot, but, not so turbulent they actually rain. It happens across North America all the time.

September 10, 2012
0001 gmt
Weather Channel Indian Ocean Satellite

Yep, plenty of heat, but, no turbulence. There won't be, the path of the air mass has a movement north. There won't be air piling up into vortexes with expanding heated air. 

Well, maybe with summer coming there will be more moisture to form storms, but, it sure doesn't look like it yet.

This is what the lands down under are experiencing.

Storm offshore in the Wellington region at the weekend. The wild weather is set to stick around. Photo / Chris Johnson/Weatherwatch

Much of Earth's weather is more related to the Coriolis Effect than any jet stream these days.

10:33 AM Monday Sep 10, 2012
Spring may be here (click title to entry - thank you) but the winter wild weather is continuing to lash parts of both islands.
MetService has issued a strong wind warning for Wairarapapa and the southeast of the South Island, as a deep low over the south Tasman Sea passes up the country.
Strong west to northwest winds are expected to intensify this afternoon in the Wairarapa, rising to severe gale strength this evening. In the Southland, Clutha and Dunedin areas, west to southwest winds are forecast to reach gale strength this evening.
Gusts of up to 120kmh in exposed areas are possible.
MetService advised winds of this strength have the potential to damage trees and powerlines and make driving hazardous.
Severe gales are also possible about Wellington, Marlborough and Canterbury from this afternoon through to tomorrow morning.
Meanwhile heavy rain is likely about Fiordland and Westland today, with significant spillover rain also possible in the headwaters of the Otago and Canterbury lakes and rivers.
MetService said periods of heavy rain is expected in Buller and northwest Nelson from this afternoon through to tomorrow morning.
Heavy rain about the ranges of the central North Island eased early this morning.
Snow falls are forecast on Arthurs Pass, Lindis Pass, Milford Road and Lewis Pass over the course of the day, clearing tomorrow.

How many knew Leslie is still very viable in the Atlantic? How is Bermuda doing?

Topical Depression Twelve (click here) strengthened into Tropical Storm Leslie on August 30, 2012. On September 5, Leslie became the sixth Atlantic hurricane of the 2012 season, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).
At 1:15 p.m. Atlantic Standard Time on September 5—about the same time that the NHC announced that Leslie had become a hurricane—the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image. Spanning hundreds of kilometers, Leslie had a spiral shape and clear eye characteristic of strong storms.

Look at these central pressures.

 25  25.70  -62.80 09/05/15Z   60   990 TROPICAL STORM

First it drops 3 millibars in 6 hours and becomes a hurricane.

 26  25.90  -62.70 09/05/21Z   65   987 HURRICANE-1

Then it drops 2 millibars in 6 hours and sustains as a hurricane with a central pressure of 985 for 40 hours. 40 hours at the same central pressure. 

  27  26.20  -62.50 09/06/03Z   65   985 HURRICANE-1
  28  26.30  -62.40 09/06/09Z   65   985 HURRICANE-1
  29  26.40  -62.40 09/06/15Z   65   985 HURRICANE-1
  30  26.50  -62.20 09/06/21Z   65   985 HURRICANE-1
30A  26.50  -62.20 09/07/00Z   65   985 HURRICANE-1
  31  26.50  -62.20 09/07/03Z   65   985 HURRICANE-1
31A  26.50  -62.20 09/07/06Z   65   985 HURRICANE-1
  32  26.70  -62.20 09/07/09Z   65   985 HURRICANE-1
32A  26.70  -62.00 09/07/12Z   65   985 HURRICANE-1

Then is drops its central pressure again by 4 millibars in three hours BUT returns to Tropical Storm status with diminished wind speeds by 5 knots to 60 knots per hour. It must have been reorganizing.

 33  26.80  -62.20 09/07/15Z   60   981 TROPICAL STORM
33A  27.10  -62.20 09/07/18Z   55   982 TROPICAL STORM
 34  27.40  -62.20 09/07/21Z   55   982 TROPICAL STORM
34A  27.60  -62.20 09/08/00Z   55   981 TROPICAL STORM
 35  27.60  -62.30 09/08/03Z   55   983 TROPICAL STORM
35A  27.80  -62.30 09/08/06Z   55     - TROPICAL STORM
 36  28.10  -62.30 09/08/09Z   55   983 TROPICAL STORM
36A  28.30  -62.50 09/08/12Z   55   986 TROPICAL STORM

Its central pressure fluctuates for the next 21 hours. Oscillation. It drops to 55 knots but sustains those winds.

Then Leslie increases its central pressure by two millibars in three hours, but, never changes its wind speed. It sustains that wind speed and central pressure  at 988 millibars for another 30 hours. Leslie sustains the central pressure but drops wind speed to 50 knots. It is currently 50 knots with a central pressure of 988 millibars. It passed through 988 on the way to a hurricane before, but, the wind speed then was 60 knots per hour.

 37  28.60  -62.50 09/08/15Z   55   988 TROPICAL STORM
37A  29.00  -62.50 09/08/18Z   55   988 TROPICAL STORM
 38  29.40  -62.50 09/08/21Z   55   988 TROPICAL STORM
38A  29.70  -62.60 09/09/00Z   55   988 TROPICAL STORM
 39  30.10  -62.60 09/09/03Z   55   988 TROPICAL STORM
39A  30.50  -62.60 09/09/06Z   55   988 TROPICAL STORM
 40  30.80  -62.50 09/09/09Z   55   988 TROPICAL STORM
40A  31.40  -62.50 09/09/12Z   50   988 TROPICAL STORM
 41  32.00  -62.40 09/09/15Z   50   988 TROPICAL STORM
41A  32.60  -62.40 09/09/18Z   50   988 TROPICAL STORM
 42  33.40  -62.10 09/09/21Z   50   988 TROPICAL STORM

What the heck is going on here?

September 9, 2012
UNISYS Infrared GOES East Satellite (click title to entry for 12 hour loop - thank you)

Leslie might be stalled due to water vapor. Maybe.

September 9, 2012
UNISYS North and West Hemisphere Water Vapor Satellite (click here for 12 hour loop)

Leslie has company. My first impression is Leslie has been consuming its own water vapor to sustain its status. The winds maintained enough momemtum with the central pressure rising to continue to be a tight enough storm to feed its own water vapor needs. Why do I say that? Because on the 12 hour loop, THE SIZE / DIAMETER / RADIUS become smaller while maintaining wind speed and central pressure. The diminishing size is not dictating the resolve of Leslie necessarily, so much as its sustainability.

I've been watching Climate Crisis vortexes for over 12 years. I have them documented. They have characteristics and I can go into them, but, what they frequently do is hover over small islands as a hear source. That heat source, even from a small island sustains the central pressure. HEAT from Bermuda sustained the central pressure and the LENGTH of time Leslie sustained its central pressure was the length of time it was near or over Bermuda. I know this sounds outrageous, but, I have large Mid-latitude and Arctic Oscillation vortexes documented to sustain and maintain their position when over small islands. I have them generating their initial 'central pressure' over the island itself. It's all in my notes and if the Hurricane Center Research wants to check Leslie I'll guarantee that is what has occurred.

I used to write extensive geological descriptions of the jet stream and vortexes when I first started until I learned more about their BEHAVIORS. But, I know that is the case. It stagnated over Bermuda and maintained its 'heat' source while it drew down in size and used its own water vapor for fuel.

Nearly at the same latitude Leslie on the west coast at the north end of the Baja Peninsula there is a vortex forming.

The east coast of North America, including Canada should be on alert for Leslie for awhile, I wouldn't count it out yet. There is another circulation center to Leslie's east and additional turbulence off Africa. Africa is mostly unrelated, but, the circulation center to Leslie's east and the one forming on the west coast is stabilizing the Leslie where it is located. I am not saying it won't go out to sea and not make landfall, but, prudent observing is still in order. There are not that many isobars difference between Leslie and the other storms, even across the continent. As a matter of fact there is a break in the isobars toward Leslie southwest of where the tornado struck New York. 

Another six hours at least.

Thank you to the Washington Post.

Tropical Storm Leslie moving past Bermuda, buffeting territory with winds from outer bands (click here)

By Associated PressPublished: September 8

Updated: Sunday, September 9, 5:56 PM

HAMILTON, Bermuda — Tropical Storm Leslie’s outer bands buffeted Bermuda with gusty winds and rain Sunday as it slowly edged past the wary British enclave on a path that was expected to take it to Canada’s Newfoundland later in the week.
The government reopened the L.F. Wade International Airport in the early evening after keeping it closed for most of the day due to tropical storm winds. Major airlines already had canceled flights to the British Atlantic territory of about 65,000 inhabitants....

...The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm had weakened slightly early Sunday, and it maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 kph). Tropical storm winds extended up to 195 miles (315 kilometers) from its center. By late afternoon, it was about 175 miles (280 kilometers) east-northeast of Bermuda and moving north at 14 mph (22 kph)....

Well, if I had read the article first I could have saved some time. No matter, there are no deaths in Bermuda, mostly power outages. Must have been a heck of a ride for days now. Not fun.

He did not do this. He did not do a "W," did he?

...Mr Romney (click title to entry - thank you) appeared with the televangelist Pat Robertson on Saturday in the swing state of Virginia and seized upon the row at last week's Democratic convention sparked when delegates removed language about God from their platform.

After reciting the Pledge of Allegiance, Mr Romney told the crowd: ''I will not take God out of … our platform. I will not take God out of my heart. We are a nation that's bestowed by God.''

The former Massachusetts governor also appeared to imply that Democrats wanted to remove the phrase ''In God We Trust'' from US currency....

Iraq's ongoing civil war is different than war planes from Syria. If Syria is allowed to expand its own civil war it will engage the region.

In all honesty, the attacks upon the innocent civilians of Syria is far different than what is occurring in Iraq. The long standing problems in Iraq are between ethnic groups and power players within the society. The government is not randomly killing its citizens as Assad is. So, there is comparison between the two. The cross border attack by Assad has to end.
...Iraq's conflict (click title to entry - thank you) has eased since its height in 2006-2007 when sectarian slaughter killed thousands. But Sunni Islamists and an al Qaeda affiliate still launch about one major attack a month in an effort to reignite tensions between Shi'ite and Sunni Muslims following the U.S. military withdrawal in December.
The most serious of the bombings, blasts and shootings on Sunday happened near the city of Amara, 300 km (185 miles) south of Baghdad, when two car bombs exploded outside a Shi'ite shrine and a market place, killing at least 16 people, officials said.
"So far 16 corpses were brought to the hospital, and more than 100 people were wounded," said Sayid Hasanain, a local health official....

Joint Commission on the Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations dictates the quality of care in the USA.

Brad Buxton, President BTB Associates, Prof.Kathryn McDonald, Exec. Dir., Center for Health Policy, Stanford University and Michael Sachs, Chairman and CEO, Sg2 and Professor David Cutler, PhD, Harvard University, Department of Economics  - “Will Health Reform Squeeze Out Altruism?” (click title to entry - thank you)
Literally, JCAHO, dictates the quality of USA healthcare. The quality isn't going anywhere. The cost has to be contained. Cost and quality are not the same thing. Just because million - billionaires believe quality dictates cost that is not the case. The healthcare profession in the USA is linked through long standing altruistic ETHICS to deliver care to patients. In the case of physicians it is commonly known as Hippocratic Oath, in nursing it is the pledge/theory. The idea quality of care is determined by cost is hideous. The quality lies within the practitioner and their professional standards.
  1. Ventilation and warming
  2. Light, Noise
  3. Cleanliness of rooms/walls
  4. Health of houses
  5. Bed and bedding
  6. Personal cleanliness
  7. Variety
  8. Chattering hopes and advices
  9. Taking food.  What food?
  10. Petty management/observation

...Campaigning (click here) for a second day in Florida, where older voters and workers approaching retirement hold sway, Obama on Sunday was expected to highlight a study by a Democratic leaning group that concluded that on average a man or woman retiring at age 65 in 2023, would have to pay $59,500 more for health care over the length of their retirement under Romney's plan.
The numbers are even higher for younger Americans who retire later, the study found. A person who qualifies for Medicare n 2030 — today's 48-year-old — would see an increase of $124,600 in Medicare costs over their retirement period.
While Romney's changes to Medicare would affect future retirees, the study also said that Romney's plan to get rid of Obama's health care law could raise health care costs in retirement by $11,000 for the average person who is 65 years old today by reinstating limits on prescription drug coverage.
The study was conducted by David Cutler, a Harvard professor and health policy expert who served in the Clinton administration and was Obama's top health care adviser during the 2008 presidential campaign. Cutler conducted the study for the liberal Center for American Progress Action Fund....