Addressed to Vladimir Putin…

(Click here)

…our First Lady Melania makes a global appeal for a safe and peaceful world for our children.

Erin is currently plowing west.

Am I understanding this currently Cat 3 storm is not making landfall? Okay, but, its immediate course would require a stalling and abrupt turn northeast if it is going to miss land. There is also the burgeoning turbulence off the southwest Florida coast as if Erin’s energy is jumping into the Gulf. That phenomenon may be possible with the troposphere as hot as it is.

I hope Erin behaves as expected but with the manifestation of turbulence off southwest Florida there may be surprises. Just being cautious.

Cautious because if Erin’s energy jumps into the Gulf it can spin upto a Cat 5 in a matter of hours, if that long. 

I remind observers that storms currently move into Hurricane status because a couple of Tropical Storms move water vapor from the ocean surface to the air. That air is dry because of the conditions of the plant. But once that dry air becomes saturated we are off to the races. If water vapor is moving from Erin into the Gulf to cause higher concentrations of water vapor the spontaneous hurricane is possible. I have always believed there would be no Cat 6 storms because of the tensile strength of water vapor molecular bonds. There would always be an increase in the number of storms (year 2005) with bizarre behavior because of the fluidity of the troposphere. 

Best.

Please observe the straight line from Erin to the Gulf turbulence with a weakening of the air mass between them. It is a solid straight line that indicates an energy relationship between the two.

Better to be safe than sorry. Expect the unexpected. The land masses are very hot. That water vapor is sucking up that heat.

(Click here)

HEAT TRANSFER. I have been using those two words for decades. It may be the models are missing the fact the land and ocean air masses have a real relationship in heat transfer.