Monday, September 26, 2016

FiveThirtyEight also had live coverage while taking audience questions.

First Presidential Debate: Live Coverage (click here)

A blog post from FiveThirtyEight twitter account:

I am not sure, but, I think this is a compliment. It is better than the Duck Dynasty guys.

Google said it best.

First Presidential Debate - end.

Iran nuclear program.
In my opinion, Iran will be back on the radar of the UNSC at sometime in the future. Iran does not respect PEACE. Iran has plans to be a military power while they will be scrutinized for their return to nuclear weapon production.

By Peter Jenkins
Joyner makes plain why the legal restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program that the Security Council imposed in 2010 lapsed on January 16 this year (JCPOA Implementation Day). UNSC resolution 2231 of 20 July 2015 “calls upon Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons…” Those of us who have been on the receiving end of Security Council injunctions know that “calls upon” is an exhortation. It is not a verbal expression that the Council uses when it intends to create a legally binding obligation under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
All in Congress who claim that Iran’s missile program violates international law, and use this to justify a demand for further US sanctions, should note that. The plain fact is that since January Iran is not violating international law when it develops and tests ballistic missiles—nor is it in any way violating the JCPOA, which does not cover missile development. Those in Congress who are upset with Iran’s missile developments should be pressing to negotiate an agreement that covers missiles instead of putting at risk the existing nuclear agreement by introducing further sanctions on Iran....
The Iranian people need to demand their leadership, including their holy men, to recognize peace as a path to elevate Iran as an international power. It is very bad judgement to continue to appear to be a rouge headed for the control of nuclear weapons.

Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State was able to bring Americans home from Iranian prisons. The capture of foreign citizens to hold as hostages is also an illegitimate act of an international power. The Iranian sanctions have been lifted. Iran should be producing an economy that does not include hostages for money.

The Iran agreement that releases sanctions to facilitate an economy should be valued more than weapons.

Thanks to all those that made the debate possible and thank you C-Span for the coverage.

NATO has their hands full.

Intelligence chiefs fear Islamic State (click here) is planning to launch deadly car bomb attacks on European cities, it was revealed yesterday.
Officials believe the jihadi terrorists could use vehicles packed full of explosives as a new ploy to bring fresh devastation to the continent.
The EU's counter-terrorism coordinator Gilles de Kerchove warned Europe needed to prepare for an 'exodus' of thousands of fighters returning from Iraq and Syria.
He also cautioned there is an increasing risk Libya will be used as a 'springboard' to launch attacks on Europe.
Mr de Kerchove, who is the EU's senior anti-terror official, told MEPs: 'The terrorist threat has never been so high in the last 20 years....

I have stated over and over that the USA cannot over extend in the Middle East because Europe was at risk.

Enough already. The USA needs to prepare to assist NATO in preventing the plans of terrorists.

26 September 2016
A Canadian-Iranian (click here) academic has been released from prison by Iranian authorities, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has confirmed.
The release was given on "humanitarian grounds", Iranian state media report.
Homa Hoodfar, 65, was one of several dual nationals being held for alleged "acts against national security".
She was ill and is being returned to Canada via Oman, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported, citing the foreign ministry.
Mr Trudeau said the federal government had been "engaged at the highest levels" with her case.

"Canadians are relieved that Dr Hoodfar has been released from jail and will soon be reunited with her family, friends and colleagues," he said....

First Presidential Debate continued....

On January 1st, 2014, (click here) William Bratton became New York City’s Police Commissioner for a second time. The graph above shows how successful Bratton was at reducing NYC’s violent crime rate when he first held this position during the 1990s.

I think the birther issue was a convenient subject for political prowess with the Tea Party. I think he owes President Obama an apology if he is sincere in stating President Obama was born in the USA.

Let's take a closer look (click here) at that birth certificate. @BarackObama was described in 2003 as being "born in Kenya." 

First Presidential Debate continued...

Hillary Clinton Factchecker (click here)

Donald Trump (click here) (website is down at this time in the debate, 9:30 PM)

Hillary Clinton: Repatriation is good for America. Trump Loophole. Trickle down, top down economics does not work in America.

9 August 2016
By Frank Robert

...Much of the attention on Trump's tax plan, (click here) announced Monday, has focused on his raising the rate for top earners to 33 percent. While that's higher than the 25 percent he originally announced, it marks a reduction from the current 39.6 percent.
Trump would also eliminate the estate tax, saying that "American workers have paid taxes their whole lives, and they should not be taxed at death." Of course, the estate tax only kicks in for estates valued at $5.45 million for individuals and $10.9 million for couples, or roughly the wealthiest 0.2 percent of Americans.

Yet the biggest tax break for the wealthy would come from so-called pass-through income, or income that "passes through" a business to the individual returns of the business' owners. The Republican nominee says the cut is aimed at helping small business — and it will. But most of the benefits go to the very wealthy....
The FBI scrubbed the Clinton server and retrieved many of the deleted emails. Other than that there is no record of so called missing deleted emails.
There are no angels when it comes to deleting emails.

...In 2007, (click here) when Congress asked the Bush administration for emails surrounding the firing of eights U.S. attorneys, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales revealed that many of the emails requested could not be produced because they were sent on a non-government email server.  The officials had used the private domain, a server run by the Republican National Committee. Two years later, it was revealed that potentially 22 million emails were deleted, which was considered by some to be a violation of the Presidential Records Act....

Donald Trump believes he can make changes to the function of government to improve it's purpose. He believes there are too many special interests to bring about sincere change in the governance of the USA.

Donald Trump is correct. Government monies were squandered, but, it wasn't the Democrats that squandered it. George W. Bush used the Clinton surplus.

9:42 pm

Interruption - sorry

9:57 pm


First Presidential Debate.

Income inequality:

Hillary Clinton: An economy that works for everyone. New jobs with rising income. Most of the new jobs will come from small business. Raise the minimum wage and equal pay for women.

Support for people trying to balance family and work. This is long overdue. Debt free college and quality childcare. The wealthy to pay their fair share. Good.

"Who will be able to make your life better?"

Donald Trump:

Jobs are outsourced. The Chinese are using the USA as their piggy bank. The biggest plants in the world are being built in China and Mexico. Ford is leaving, 1000 of jobs are leaving. 

Child care agrees with Hillary.

"We have to stop our companies from leaving the United States, ie: Carrier....Under my plan the taxes will be reduced and it will be a job creator."

Donald that is called "Trickle Down Economics" and it does not work.

Hillary Clinton: That is "Trumped Up Trickle Down."..."Invest in the middle class and the better we will grow."

Donald Trump: "My father gave me a small loan and I built it into billions of dollars....What China is doing to the USA is wrong....When we sell into Mexico there is tax and when Mexico sells to us there is no cost....Secretary Clinton and others should have been doing this for years....We owe 20 trillion dollars and can't do that anymore."

Lester Holt: How are you going to do that?

Donald Trump: Tax imports. The politicians never do that because of special interests. We have to stop the companies from leaving.

Hillary Clinton: 2008 was a perfect storm....13 trillion in family wealth was wiped out...Donald capitalized on the economic failure. His tax plan would blow up the debt by adding 12 trillion dollars....Her investments will bring about 20 million new jobs. 

Does Donald think the climate crisis is something dreamed up by the Chinese.

Donald Trump: The USA lost money investing for solar panels. We cannot do what Hillary Clinton wants without increasing the national debt. "We have to do a better job at keeping our jobs."

Michigan and Ohio and so many of their jobs are leaving.

The USA has the lowest unemployment rate in decades.

...Sixty thousand (click here) manufacturing jobs were added in the U.S. in 2014, versus 12,000 in 2003, either through so-called reshoring, in which American companies bring jobs back to the U.S., or foreign direct investment, in which foreign companies move production to the U.S., according to a study from the Reshoring Initiative. In contrast, as many as 50,000 jobs were “offshored” last year, a decline from about 150,000 in 2003....

The future growth of the USA lies in increased wages beginning with the minimum wage.

Donald Trump restores to Republican rhetoric; ie: regulation, increased taxes. The USA cannot afford to deregulate. The water is polluted, the air is polluted, the climate is out of control.

Jill Stein is correct. The other candidates should have a chance at least at the first debate to make connections on policy.

September 26, 2016
By Daniella Diaz

Washington (CNN) - Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein (click here) was escorted off the Hofstra University campus Monday after her prearranged media interviews because she didn't have credentials to be there.

Stein's campaign told CNN that she was at the university doing press interviews and was escorted off after an interview with MSNBC.

"We were on our way to an interview with @MSNBC when we were stopped by Hofstra security and Nassau County police just now. #debatenight" she tweeted.

It is difficult for candidates of third and fourth party candidates to make up ground when they are excluded from debates. It simply isn't right.

The history of debates shows the first debate does bring a reaction from the electorate.

We only want a democracy that gives all its citizens a platform.

Watching online with C-Span is free. (click here)

What is non-partisan really mean?

Candidate Governor Gary Johnson has a point. There is an unrepresented 10 percent in the recent polls.
Will the undecided even vote on election day because they can't find a candidate they respect.
I think what is left out of the polls by the CPD is the real fact Democratic and Republican candidates do not attract all of the country as an answer for leadership. I think the CPD has a responsibility to Americans sincerely objecting to establishment candidates. Quit e possibly the way to invite those Americans to a national debate is to award the "Undecided percentage" to the highest polling 3rd or 4th party candidate. In this instance there is (42.6+41.1+7.2 = 90.1) 9.1 undecided. If Governor Gary Johnson was awarded the undecided he would easily be on the debate stage.

The first Presidential debate has a double disqualifier. The Vice Presidential debate is determined by the candidates who qualified for the first Presidential debate.
Americans are looking for leadership they believe can lead the country differently than before. They want to believe in the decisions the Oval Office is making. It just seems to me the undecided are really looking for others otherwise they would not be undecided.
The CPD's nonpartisan criteria my not be very nonpartisan at all.
The CPD's nonpartisan criteria (click here) for selecting candidates to participate in its 2004 general election presidential debates are:
1. Evidence of Constitutional Eligibility
The CPD's first criterion requires satisfaction of the eligibility requirements of Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution. The requirements are satisfied if the candidate:
a.    is at least 35 years of age;
b.    is a Natural Born Citizen of the United States and a resident of the United States for fourteen years; and
c.   is otherwise eligible under the Constitution.
2. Evidence of Ballot Access
The CPD's second criterion requires that the candidate qualify to have his/her name appear on enough state ballots to have at least a mathematical chance of securing an Electoral College majority in the 2004 general election. Under the Constitution, the candidate who receives a majority of votes in the Electoral College, at least 270 votes, is elected President regardless of the popular vote.
3. Indicators of Electoral Support
The CPD's third criterion requires that the candidate have a level of support of at least 15% (fifteen percent) of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recent publicly reported results at the time of the determination.
C. Application of Criteria
CPD's determination with respect to participation in CPD's first-scheduled debate will be made after Labor Day 2004, but sufficiently in advance of the first-scheduled debate to allow for orderly planning. Invitations to participate in the vice-presidential debate will be extended to the running mates of each of the presidential candidates qualifying for participation in CPD's first presidential debate. Invitations to participate in the second and third of CPD's scheduled presidential debates will be based upon satisfaction of the same multiple criteria prior to each debate.

I think he is a very honest and genuine candidate.

Bidding is a hurdle to a local economy.

Bidding for infrastructure projects can lead to loss of income to the local economy issuing the bond.

There should be a preference written into the bond for local contractors whenever possible. 

Be sure to add a clause that automatically cancels the contract should the local business/bid winners change hands.

It is not unusual for a local business to win a bid and have a larger company, often national or international, purchase the company from the local owner. The local owner may stay on the payroll, but, the monies into the infrastructure project is now leaving the local area.

In cities and towns with depressed economies, an infrastructure project can work wonders to put monies back into the hands of a local economy. The citizens begin to infuse the economy once again and that will translate into growth.

The monies from the infrastructure project should be assessed to the benefit it will bring the area before the bond is posted.

Beware of state and federal legislators in the back pocket of Wall Street; they will attempt to dominate the choices available to local economies. That is often achieved through the corruption of ALEC (click here) (American {not hardly} Legislative Exchange (exchange American monies for Wall Street bucks foreign/domestic) Council.

What is the GDP of your town? What is the growth and potential growth?

This graph shows the GDP of the New York metro area from (click here) 2001 to 2015. In 2015, the GDP of the New York metro area amounted to 1.60 trillion U.S. dollars.

How much infrastructure growth can your town take on to increase growth? Will infrastructure spending include additional taxes that will inhibit consumer spending and prove a loss of growth in real income to the town or city?

What is the infrastructure wish lists for your town or city? How does a city or town remove invisible taxes such as college costs to local community colleges and state universities? The year of 2016 demands education and training to achieve good pay rates. Can citizens afford the NECESSARY education to achieve their goals and the American Dream?

l. Better schools to attract more citizens.
2. Better green jobs and infrastructure to attract businesses.
3. Better roads and bridges that provide safe access without long traffic               delays that cost consumers dollars spending more within the petroleum           industry.
4. Get rid of the invisible taxes like traffic delays during commuter hours, child       care, college costs and low pay rates.
5. Does the state universities provide for studying pure science and                     mathematics to blaze new trails for the future or provide insight into our           world? Preparing for only everything Wall Street will not provide for a               society in the future. Children have a right to a future. No more                   abandoned generations.

Increase the minimum wage. The American Dream carries significant economic realities.

Kindly remember the hardest hit profession in 2008 was in construction. Also adding to this problem is the fact when Americans found work it paid far less than the it paid before 2008. The need for an increase in the minimum wage is definitely in order. 

Wall Street robbed Americans of their salaries and found plenty of profit from it. It is time to return the equity to the American people and not stockholders. This is necessary and not a larking for votes.

September 26, 2016
By Sho Chandra

Purchases of new U.S. homes dropped (click here) in August after surging a month earlier to the fastest pace since 2007, representing a pause in momentum within residential real estate.
Sales fell 7.6 percent to a 609,000 annualized pace, from a revised 659,000 rate in the prior month that was the strongest since October 2007, figures from the Commerce Department showed Monday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 600,000. Prices fell from a year earlier to the lowest level in almost two years.
Even with the decline in purchases last month, builder backlogs increased as the number of homes sold but not yet started climbed to a nine-year high. The pace of demand will help support further construction, ensuring the residential real-estate industry remains a help to the economy....

The generation gap shows up due to ultra low interest rates.

As the older generation approaches retirement, they tend to move their finances into more safe accounts such as money markets. They are not providing the minimal returns. The returns today begin at 1.75 percent and fall to 1.00 percent (click here).  At one time the money markets were earning just under 5 percent; that is now a fantasy.

20 September 2016
Remarks by Stephen S. Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada

It is not often (click here) that I get to speak to a room full of economists and, believe it or not, I consider it a privilege. People say that economists can never agree on anything, but I suspect that we can agree on at least one thing. What is the number one issue that people ask economists about today? It is ultra-low interest rates.
You probably get questions from both sides, just as I do. Young folks with mortgages regularly thank me for keeping interest rates low. When I think about how much cumulative interest I have paid in my lifetime, it is no wonder that they are grateful. But I also hear from people, especially retirees, who are unhappy because they have saved their whole lives and are getting very little income from those savings today.
Now, it is natural to give central banks the credit—or the blame—for ultra-low interest rates. Low rates have been with us since the global financial crisis. The G7 central banks implemented coordinated interest rate cuts in 2008—a sign of just how serious the situation was. Some of the hardest-hit economies, such as the United States, Europe and Japan, implemented unconventional policies to ease monetary conditions further. Without these efforts, the global economy could have fallen into a second Great Depression.
We avoided that fate. But since that time, policy rates have generally remained extremely low, mainly because the economic headwinds that the crisis created have been slow to fade. Some central banks have even gone to negative interest rates, a bizarre concept for many, and bond yields across the curve are also ultra-low. In fact, more than US$10 trillion of government debt is currently trading with a negative yield....

Minimum interest rates can be dictated by the bank or investment firm that conducts money markets, but, there is something more to understand.

...The real neutral rate is a theoretical concept that can’t be directly measured, and central banks don’t control it. But it is extremely important to understand: it is the inflation-adjusted risk-free interest rate in an economy—the real interest rate that is neither stimulative nor contractionary when an economy is operating at full capacity without cyclical forces at play, thus balancing desired savings and investment. Presently, Bank staff estimate that the real neutral rate falls into the range of 0.75–1.75 per cent, which translates into a range for the nominal neutral rate of 2.75–3.75 per cent. This is down from a range of 4.50–5.50 per cent in the pre-crisis period....

In thinking about local economies, what is the return on the investment dollar? Growth. Don't get carried away with thinking about a global economy. The local economy has an interest rate. Sometimes it is as volatlle as a good year for tourism vs a bad year for tourism.

What is the baseline interest rate an investor will receive if the local economy is robust and MATURE.

How much is your local economy paying for money? Is it a real assessment of the local economy growth or is it higher than the baseline return on investment of the growing local economy?

MUNI(cipal) Bonds
  • Attractive income: Municipal bonds (click here) have offered an attractive level of income across tax brackets in what is still a low-yield environment.
  • High-quality, low-volatility: Munis have experienced lower volatility than other bond categories.
  • A hedge against equity risk: Correlations between equities and bonds are now diverging, which means bonds can provide a better offset to equity risk than they have in some time.

I think when most people decide about the growth and investment return of their local economies, the reason for an "Infrastructure Bank" is important. Of course, an infrastructure bak does not alienate he financial sector. It is a private-public bank that provides he best interest to local economies.

The Republicans in DC don't want in infrastructure bank because it would cut into the interest rates paid in Muni Bonds.

A spate of municipal bond (click here) issuance this year is fueling a wide range of infrastructure projects across the country.

Analysts say as much as $400 billion in muni bonds may be sold this year, nearly a record high, to improve schools, airports, roads and other infrastructure.

The low-interest rate environment is encouraging cities and states to not just repay debt issued at higher cost, but to also plow additional funds into infrastructure projects, ranging from water and sewer improvements in California, a new terminal at New York’s LaGuardia Airport to new road work in Texas, noted Bloomberg.

It’s a strange time, then, for calls to change or eliminate the tax exemption....

Funding for a growing local economies should resemble the baseline interest rate of monies to the financial sector with a little more interest, not exceptional interest, to attract the investors.

Why only a little higher than the financial institutions are paying for borrowed monies? Because Muni Bonds are tax exempt. So, while local economies may offer bonds to facilitate growth and repaired infrastructure, their return on the investment dollar is supplemented by the reality they are tax exempt. Dollar for dollar Muni Bonds offer more advantage to investors. 

Assessing a local economy and it's ability to grow and provide investment interest is vital to maintaining a healthy local budget that balances all bonds with potential to growth.

Bond issues on any ballot should be reviewed for the interest rate of the bonds vs. the core economic percent growth of the local economy. It is important to keep local tax rates reasonable to insure growth in consumer spending. The local economy does not want higher taxes if the local economy borders on it's own growth rate and it does not want to simply oppress taxes if a stronger local economy will benefit from infrastructure projects. 

An infrastructure bank provides a far lower interest rate across the board for local economies, but, especially for the cities and towns that border on it's own economic growth rate. An infrastructure bank can provide a low enough tax rate to reboot stagnant economies. Every project should come with an estimate of it's value to the consumer and consumer dollar to insure growth. The consumer is where growth begins.

A legend has died.

September 26, 2016

Golfing legend Arnold Palmer (click here) died Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh, his longtime spokesman and friend Doc Giffin told ESPN. Palmer was 87.
"I'm just so heartbroken about it," Giffin said. "As much as Arnold Palmer meant to the world, he meant that much and more to me."
According to his longtime agent, Alastair Johnston, Palmer died of complications from heart problems. Johnston said Palmer was admitted to the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Presbyterian on Thursday for some cardiovascular work and weakened over the past few days....

The internet skews public polling.

This is an interesting poll from the Washington Post, (click here) but, in my opinion it is slightly skewed. The internet is a captive audience.

Not all voters use or own a computer. The participation rate seems to skew more toward online opinion than others. That may be good or bad news for either candidate, but, using the internet heavily for poll results is not as valid as it could be.

It is far easier for people to follow the elections if they have an electronic devise. The devise can travel with them as they more through their day. People that are not well invested in such technology or cannot make the investment are less likely to follow the politics.

Most Americans that do not have electronic devices and may or may not follow the politics. There are households in this country that do not have television since the rabbit ears were taken from them. Seriously. I know that for a fact.

The best politics is local, so KNOCK ON DOORS and bring the politics to life for these folks. They are important voters and may not have heard the candidates' message at all. It is my opinion these folks carry their lives forward by conducting charity work through their churches.

The questions to the right above are case in point.

I am proud of her. She takes the power of the USA seriously,

September 26, 2016
By Dan Merica

Rye Brook, New York (CNN) Hillary Clinton (click here) might be viewed as the favorite going into Monday's presidential debate. But she certainly didn't prepare like one.
Clinton, a candidate known for being a homebody, was for most of the three nights leading up to Monday's debate working at a hotel a few miles from her Chappaqua, New York home, hunkered down with aides in a nondescript conference center surrounded by wedding parties and high school reunion goers.
    Clinton spent Friday, Saturday and Sunday night at the Doral Arrowwood, returning home past 11 p.m. every night after sessions with a tight group of aides and advisers. The late night sessions appeared to mimic the timing of Monday's debate at Hofstra University, which will run 90 minutes and start at 9 p.m....