Monday, July 19, 2010

It is impossible to drill one mile down on a high content methane vat.

The crew of the Deepwater Horizon found pieces of seal because the methane was crystalizing them.  There is a chance the same thing will happen with the relief wells.  With the four risers operating and removing methane from the site where the relief well enters the well casing there is a 'chance' it might work.  There is also a chance it may not and the only option is a subterranian explosion that will seal the well.

This well is a high content methane well and while it spews a large amount at the well head when it is not restrained, that doesn't mean it maintains the same status when the oil and gas are NOT moving.  The only reason the well head doesn't freeze over without containment is because it is flowing to fast at a high pressure to create 'cohesive' ice 'masses,' only 'crystals.

I am dead serious about this.

The flange is leaking because the seal has either contracted due to freezing or crystalized as well. 

The gauge is increasing its reading 'slowly' because the ice is increasing in the 'the stack.' 

The vat is not diminished in its volume or capacity or pressure.  Accurate readings of the vat are inhibited by the methane hydrates.

The risers to the surface can be closed slowly once the relief well is in place and ready to deliver the concrete.  But, until that point the cap has to remain open and removing the methane from the well.  The oil is secondary in concern, it is the methane that has made this well dangerous and continues to do so.

I am very worried. The methane hydrates at the 'flange' IS DEFINATELY a leak of the stack.

It may be that the mechanism that is in place, "the stack," is frozen.  The reason the pressure may not be increasing is because it is frozen. The pressure as it is now might be increasing slowly as the ice inside the well bore increases and does not indicate there is more pressure because of the vat.
The GAUGES measuring the pressure may be 'inhibited' from delivering accuracy due to frozen hydrates.  There is definately a potential for inaccuracy in the readings.

THE VAT IS NOT DIMINISHED IN ITS CAPACITY.  NOT DEPLETED AT ALL.  The oil and gas previous to the closing of the new cap was just as significant as the first day this occurred.  The vat has plenty of pressure in it.  This is about ICE.

The issue is this, the four risers should be open, BUT, very slowly as to not explode the new cap AT THE FLANGE.  If there is a sudden movement of solid (ICE) through 'the stack' it could destroy it and we will be worse off than before.

The new cap has to remain a 'flow' to insure its integrity.  The ships will have to receive the oil to maintain a flow and not pollute the Gulf anymore than it currently has been effective.

There cannot be any further 'waiting' to this issue.  The pressure is a monster and it has its own dynamics.  There is a sea floor 'at risk' and there is a 'worse case' scenario that will yield NO RESOLVE to this disaster.  Considering the 'catastrophic' nature of this potential and 'real' outcome it is not prudent to 'play the odds.'  All and every precaution has to be taken and that cap HAS TO REMAIN functioning.  It has to be the 'vent' to the well when the relief wells are connected to the current well.  We do not need a more unstable sea floor.  We need to maintain the integrity of the well cap and that is not assured at this moment.  Not if there is methane ice (hydrates) at the flange.  If there was methane ice just happening haphazardly around the stack it would make sense the leak of methane was from another source and simply floating in the water and adhering to the stack.  BUT, it is completely obvious that the methane ice is 'at the flange.'  That is DEFINITIVE. 

There CANNOT be any guess work here and if there is an INCREMENTAL 'doubt' about anything there has to be decision making on the side of safety and integrity of the stack.  According to the BP reporting we are about a month away from relief well intervention.  That is where the 'target' is and the stack has to be intact and functioning when that occurs.  There is too much on the line to allow speculation of this well head and the stack.  We have to maintain a flow through the new cap to the risers and to the ships in order to INSURE the best outcome one month from now.

No more speculation.  That cap has to be opened and the flow returned to insure its integrity.   There is absolutely no logic to 'speculation.'  If there is not SOLID facts then the decisions is to return the flow to the cap.  This is NOT good decision making on the part of BP.

If there is any discussion of using a 'warming method' to the stack, it has to be approached with great caution as the stack may be filled with methane, even if that is in the form of hydrates.  This is a monster.  It simply is.

NO SPECULATION.  Either there are solid facts in the decision making process or the well cap remains open and risers carry the oil and methane to the surface.  It is completely imprudent to do anything else.  All surface exposure to the methane has to be taken as well to not repeat the explosion that caused this in the first place. 

Nothing like walking on eggshells now is there?

British Petroleum again evading 'the truth.' Oil Seep found near existing well head.

Matthew Weaver,
Monday 19 July 2010 09.18 BST

...Admiral Thad Allen, who is in charge of the US government's response to the disaster, has written to BP demanding answers to "undetermined anomalies at the well head".
Allen ordered the company to provide a plan for reopening the well by 1am today (BST).
In a letter to the BP managing director, Bob Dudley, he said: "When seeps are detected, you are directed to marshal resources, quickly investigate, and report findings to the government in no more than four hours.
"I direct you to provide me a written procedure for opening the choke valve as quickly as possible without damaging the well should hydrocarbon seepage near the well head be confirmed."
BP has yet to respond to the letter. Shares in the oil company fell more than 5% following today's news after rallying on Friday amid initial reports of the cap's success....

BP needs to cooperate with the demands of the people of the USA, open the well head, begin capturing the oil and gas and continue to drill the relief wells.  It is nearly impossible to stop 8000+ psi.
The USA also needs to prepare for the possiblity of closing the well with a subterranian explosion.