Saturday, August 29, 2015

Minsk II was to be enforced by the "Organization of Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Minsk II is the second agreement between all major powers in the region of Ukraine, Ukraine government and the eastern Ukraine rebels. It is an interesting arrangement in that the eastern regions are to hold elections for local authority while maintaining their national borders of Ukraine. This agreement was based in a ceasefire of all hostilities. Included in Minsk II was an outline of an economic strategy that would allow the states of Ukraine to keep a larger portion of any taxes collected. The idea is to increase the economic development of the states. In that is the understanding when the states do well, the central authority will receive sufficient revenue to carry out its responsibility as a sovereign authority. 

By allowing more taxes to be kept by the states the culture identity would remain strong preserving the ethnic diversity of Ukraine. There is no reason for the eastern states to demand autonomy since Ukraine is more than willing to acknowledge that diversity as a very healthy part of Ukraine and it's economy. If one recalls these are the rebels that were stating they are too different in every way from the rest of Ukraine to remain a part of the sovereign borders. In other words, they were more Russian than Ukraine. 

The autonomy of cultural diversity would also insure a more peaceful border with Russia as there can be trade between the eastern Ukraine states and Russia. 

For the most part, Minsk II has held up without issue and the ceasefire has worked. There are elections slated in October and November to establish those that will govern the states of eastern Ukraine. However, there are rumbling that are causing an increase in hostilities with a return to violence.

Leaders of Belarus, Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine at the 11–12 February summit in Minsk

August 29, 2015
By Chad Thomas

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande (click here) warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday that any elections held in eastern Ukraine must conform to that country’s laws.

“Hollande and Merkel underscored the fact that elections in separatist areas that are contrary to current agreements would endanger the Minsk process,” Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s chief spokesman, said in an e-mailed statement.

The European leaders’ first three-way conversation with Putin since June 22 follows signals by Merkel and Hollande that they are stepping up efforts to engage on Ukraine as the cease-fire negotiated in February in Minsk is faltering. The three emphasized that the accord is still the foundation for improving the situation in eastern Ukraine and reiterated their willingness to work with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to end the 16-month conflict, Seibert said. Merkel and Hollande met Poroshenko in Berlin on Aug. 24.

The three leaders also discussed the need for any vote in separatist areas to be held under the observation of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and that any attacks or threats against the group’s special observers in the country is “unacceptable,” Seibert said in the statement.

Putin expressed his concern during the call over the Ukrainian army’s firing on settlements in Donbass and the buildup of armed forces along the cease-fire line, according to a Kremlin statement. Ukraine countered that pro-Russia insurgents are amassing heavy weapons in the Mariupol district and that two Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and another three wounded in the last 24 hours, Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, a military spokesman, said in Kiev....

Once again violence is manifesting rather than peaceful anticipation of a new country with diversity and freedom of trade. President Putin should not be stirring the pot so much as enforcing Minsk II. Minsk II enforces the Ukraine borders and does not dissolve them. Arming eastern Ukraine to a stronger military than the central government is not part of the agreement and is not the aspect that was to be encouraged in Minsk II.

The OSCE needs to be tasked to enforce Minsk II by engaging the UN Security Council through dialogue as to the infractions and how they occurred. There has to be one universal and neutral voice to speak to Minsk II and it's forward movement to peace. This voice needs to be heard on a frequent basis to stem violence. The circumstances are too fluid with Russia allowing sales of massive munitions to Ukraine's eastern provenances to expect occasional reporting to the UN Security Council to be effective.

August 27, 2015
By Natasha Doff and Daryna Krasnolutska

Ukraine agreed to a restructuring deal (click here) with creditors after five months of talks, giving President Petro Poroshenko some breathing room as he seeks to avert default and revive an economy decimated by a war with Russia-backed separatists....

...Poroshenko is seeking to meet the conditions of emergency assistance from the International Monetary Fund, which says debt restructuring should save Ukraine $15.3 billion through 2018, while trying to end a recession expected to bring a contraction of 8.7 percent this year, forecasts compiled by Bloomberg show....

...Franklin Templeton, which owns about $7 billion of Ukrainian bonds, was joined in the talks by fellow creditors BTG Pactual Europe LLP, TCW Investment Management Co. and T. Rowe Price Associates Inc.

Some bondholders, including Yerlan Syzdykov, who helps oversee $254 billion, including Ukrainian Eurobonds, at Pioneer Investments, have already said they will back a deal....

...“I’m offering Russia a restructuring opportunity that is the same as everyone else’s,” Jaresko said in the interview. “I’m hopeful that they will participate in this. It’s the best way to depoliticize this.”
Siluanov, the Russian finance minister, said in an interview with Rossiya 1 state television, “We won’t agree to a restructuring.” He added, “we will insist the funds are returned in full in December.”
Ukrainian officials say they expect to get $3.4 billion of International Monetary Fund financing over the next four months, on top of the roughly $6.7 billion received so far under the program.... 

More conflict will not help Ukraine, nor bring about peace and prosperity to eastern Ukraine states. When will eastern Ukraine realize it's peril is it's alone. A stable and peaceful election would be met with far better economic outcomes. I realize money is no object to rebels, but, this is getting to be a martyr status of eastern Ukraine. When will they put their people first and replace ideologies with good governance, peace and prosperity?