Friday, November 16, 2018

Israel wants peace, but, it sees national security as a problem.

Israel has to be among the best armed countries in the Middle East. However, there are issues and I can't say they have an empty meaning.

First, Gaza, and the recent ceasefire brought about by a diligent Egypt actually averted a war between Israel and the Gaza strip. That is a fact. The loss of an IDF commander also contributed to the ceasefire, but, there is profound concern of the use of ONE anti-tank missile that destroyed a military bus, killing one person. There is the concern by Israel that Gaza has significant numbers of rockets and now potential stocks of missiles. The IDF believes Hamas in Gaza will become another Hezbollah.

Secondly, Prime Minister Netanyahu is questioning the interest of Russia's presence in regard to Syria and Lebanon. He stated it is the assessment of the IDF that Russia's forces in the region are limiting the military response by Israel to threats and potentially defending it's borders due to the necessary flight of jets and it's the narrowest region of Israel which is only 9 miles wide.

I believe Russia has positioned itself in Syria for the purpose of interfering with The West's military prowess and that includes Israel. Russia has been demonstrating greater aggression toward NATO, including cyberwar during NATO exercises. There are issues with Russia and the safe sovereignty of NATO, including faux elections at the eastern border of Ukraine. Russia continues to break treaties and that is somewhat meaningful, yet not necessarily the complete picture to the extent of Putin's brinkmanship.

My take on Russia's treaty issues is that the country can no longer survive by living with treaties. I think the sanctions have taken their toll and Russia's aggression is telling of it's willingness to enter a war to end any Western dominance of the region and the world. Also there is a burgeoning presence of Russia in Cuba which has a new president and new agreements with Russia.

Putin is still pretending to be a diplomat more so than a general, but, it is a lie. I believe more and more the sanctions on Russia is forcing it's hand. Putin has made well-made long term plans to end NATO including providing influence in elections in Europe and the USA. Those plots against democracy are now exposed and Russia feels more vulnerable than ever. NATO can now counter those attacks and the victory of the Democratic Party with a younger generation taking it's citizenship responsibly is proof of that.

I still believe there are vulnerabilities for NATO countries by the simple fact they are democracies, but, as the identity of bad actors, such as Steve Bannon, are exposed the more the momentum to preserve democracies will take shape. I might add the new president of Brazil has made wild promises to the people which today are simply not possible to keep. That will come home eventually to the people of Brazil and they will find the undermining of their democracy standing plainly in front of them. Greed is not a democracy. Greed is the corruption of democracy to serve a few rather than the country.

I just had a news notice stating the White House MUST return the credentials of the CNN White House Bureau Chief. That is most likely the promise of the First Amendment which is under attack by this White House. At least it seems obvious to me. The USA is on the march to protect democracy and that should be good news for every other country that enjoys freedom and liberty.

But, as to Israel and Russia. The current White House has promised a peace plan to be revealed within two months. It will be interesting to find out where Russia fits into those plans and whether it is a peace plan that is palatable to Israel and the region, including Egypt. At no point in time should Egypt's accomplishments ever be put to the sidelines. Israel now knows the power Egypt has in negotiations and the ceasefire is definitely viewed as having averted a war. Egypt is an ally to both the Gaza Strip and Israel, the question that remains for Egypt is how to reassure Israel there will be no weapons build up in Gaza that threatens that peace.

There are going to be early elections in Israel and the attacks in the south are responsible for solidifying those plans. The resignation of the IDF leader is due to the fact the Prime Minister participated in the ceasefire talks. The IDF leadership is somewhat the strongest right wing political group and has a vision for Israel that will not be workable under most peace plans discussed today. The political right wing of Israel still sees an expansionist role for Israel, hence, the presence of Russia that serves the purpose of limiting the military options to Israel while building a presence that threatens NATO.

Recently, there was an article in the "Los Angeles Times" discussing the burgeoning threat of the alliance of China and Russia as China grows in military strength. It discusses the scenario that the USA is vulnerable to significant losses and potential defeat.

There has been a Friendship Agreement between Russia and China since 2000 when "W" took office. That alliance has not been called up until the tariffs were placed on the economic relationship between China and the USA. Oddly enough, Israel is in negotiations with China and is speculated to be a point of contention with the Trump Administration. Regardless, Israel needs to be sure it's national security is not an issue when contracting with China for trade. There is the alliance with Russia and there is definitely a changing tone to the international community.

One of the assessments that will come into view as the new US House Democrats come into office is the national security of the USA, including the ability of it's military to be effective beyond a doubt. There are new threats and the fact Russia and Cuba will present another missile crisis to the USA is a given, only this time I am not confident Putin cares enough to back down and practice only brinkmanship.

The UN Security Council needs to begin to address these new global threats (nuclear proliferation and war is a global threat) and demand reassurances there will be no such paradigm between major countries today or in the future. The idea of a limited nuclear war is hideous. The winds that exist in the troposphere of Earth alone will guarantee danger to the global population even without participation. The best example of that currently is the long distance disposition of California's smoke from the fires. Last I checked it was making it's way to Michigan nearly 2000 miles away.

I might suggest Egypt give testimony to the UN Security Council as to it's incredible success in averting a war through a ceasefire.

Serious ceasefire and peace talks need to go forward in the Middle East and Russia needs to reassess it's ability to bring about peace rather than a global war which no one wants.

November 16, 2018
By Raoul Wootliff

The Jewish Home (click here) will leave the coalition, bringing down the government and forcing new elections, senior party sources told The Times of Israel Friday.

The Jewish Home party’s decision came after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett’s demand to be made defense minister in a Friday afternoon meeting between the two.

The sources said a date for elections had not been agreed upon. Elections are formally set for November 2019, but it is now expected they will be held between March and May, with Netanyahu pushing for a later date and other parties seeking an earlier one....