Monday, March 14, 2016

Russia's navy in the eastern Mediterranean Sea is a stabilizing force.

Iran, as an example, finds it reassuring to have it's best ally nearby. Countries such as Iran will seek more and more military power if it feels vulnerable. In the case of Iran there is a long history of oppression and victimization of the ethnicity.

It is important Russia is maintaining a presence in Syria.

21 January 2016
By AP

Russian has paraded (click here) it naval might in the Mediterranean, inviting reporters aboard a destroyer cruising off Syria’s coast in scenes reminiscent of the Soviet era.

The military demonstrated its global presence on Thursday by bringing Moscow-based journalists aboard the Vice Admiral Kulakov destroyer, which sailed alongside the flagship of the Russian naval group, the Varyag missile cruiser.

By establishing a long-term presence in the eastern Mediterranean, the Russian military has revived a Soviet-era capability to project naval power far from its borders.

The display of Russia’s military operations came before planned peace talks between the Syrian government and opposition next week in Geneva, which are meant to pave the way for a political settlement for Syria. Since Russia launched its bombing campaign in Syria on 30 September, its warplanes have flown more than 5,700 missions in support of Syrian government troops....

If I said the death of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr (click here) was the fault of Iran, would anyone in Iran believe me?

January 20, 2016
By Uri Friedman

...Frederic Wehrey (click here) doesn’t buy that narrative. A scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who researches identity politics in the Persian Gulf, Wehrey believes the execution of Nimr, rather than being the latest salvo in the Saudi-Iran shadow war, was primarily motivated by domestic politics in Saudi Arabia. Specifically, the Saudi royal family wanted to appease powerful Sunni clerics angered by the kingdom’s cooperation with the United States in the fight against ISIS, a Sunni jihadist group....

At the time of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr's death, Iran needs to realize why it occurred. It was not considered likely, but, then something happened.

The region had become unsettled. Yemen produced a successful coupe of Houthis. There were border clashes between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. I strongly believe the death of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr was induced and not necessary. It was induced by Iran and it's desperate plans to create it's counter country of Daesh's caliphate.

Shiekh Nimr al-Nimr as a political prisoner was executed to impress on the Shi'ites within Saudi Arabia their fate if they chose to take up arms against the Kingdom. His death is not about a direct threat he posed to the Kingdom, but, resulted because of Iran's willingness to bring instability to the region. If I recall correctly, Russia told Iran to knock it off.

It is very bold of me to speak of the Iranian Supreme Leader. I think he tries very hard to protect the Iranians as well as the Shia in general no matter where they reside in the middle east or elsewhere. I believe the Supreme Leader views Iran as a safe haven for the Shia. I am quite confident the Supreme Leader remembers the treatment of the Shi'ites before the overthrow of the Shah. The Iranian Revolution was a forge to his reality, his faith and his resolve. 

The time has come for him to realize his power as a leader of the Shia. It is also time for him to reflect on the reality of the Shia in the presence of the Grand Ayatollah Al-Sayyid Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani. The Grand Ayatollah is now 85 years old and his wisdom to such men as the Supreme Leader is urgent. 

Iran has to realize it's limitations if it is to protect the Shia in all regions of The Crescent. Let the Shia not lose lands and people, but, end the strife of survival and strike a peace with the other regional powers. The Grand Ayatollah has a long lived reputation of being the peace Ayatollah. I recommend the Supreme Leader visit with the Grand Ayatollah and come to understand exactly what survival under peace requires.

Iran can seek to set The Crescent on fire to bring about an overwhelming and powerful Shia country, but, there is very great danger in that idea. No different than the danger that existed for Daesh. Other powers will not view Shi'ite aggression as a rightful authority to land. There will be war for a long time and the people like Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr will be sacrificed over and over to impress the power of the governing authority.

I think it best for Iran to find peace and practice it. It has a very strong ally in Russia and the advice of Russian leaders should not be taken frivolously. In recent weeks the King of Saudi Arabia stated the only reason for the estrangement of Iran in their dealings is directly due to the instability in the region. Iran is responsible for that instability. Saudi Arabia also stated Iran could be considered a better neighbor if the hostilities in the region ended. 

I suggest the Supreme Leader seek advice and council. It is time Iran was as much a peace maker as anyone. The old fears have to be abandoned and security of the Shi'ites placed ahead of any other idea. That security comes from Iran's neighbors as well as it's own ability to national defense. REGIONAL DEFENSES are as much a part of a sovereign authority as the sovereign military. Iran has yet to develope sincere RESPECT of it's neighbors through diplomatic relations that nurture peace and prosperity.

I wish all well.