Wednesday, September 03, 2014

Ukraine ceasefire announcement was premature. Russia identifies the civil war as a political crisis.


September 3, 2014
...“The country (Ukraine) needs (click here) a new military doctrine with a clear definition of who is an aggressor and who is a threat. Russia should be acknowledged in the new doctrine as an aggressor-nation and is the only one that is a threat to the territorial integrity and national security of Ukraine,” Yatsenyuk said during a government session.
On Tuesday, Russian Security Council deputy head Mikhail Popov said Russia will update its military doctrine by the end of 2014 to reflect new security threats, including the expansion of NATO, US missile shield plans and the political crisis in Ukraine....

Basically, Russia is already viewing Ukraine as a wayward possession of Russia with an illegitimate government in Kiev. Russia doesn't view this as a civil war. Russia is viewing it's action within Ukraine as a policing problem. Russia sees Yanukovych as the legitimate President. The comments about taking Kiev in two weeks is a valid statement and not off the cuff comments in a bar room with friends.

Russia and The West, including Ukraine and it's request to be a member of NATO see these circumstance very differently. 

Russia is acting very inconsistently between it's actions and it's political stance on Ukraine. If Ukraine were under siege by a illegitimate government why annex Crimea? I would think Crimea would simply be included within the borders of "The Russia state of Ukraine."

There is a reason Russia wants to possess at least the Donets Basin which is where Donetsk is located. Russia is conducting not just an invasion but a war for control of the gas fields. This is a war for Ukraine to maintain it's independence from Russia to the point the Donets Basin delivers gas to it's people. Talks between Ukraine, Europe and Russia are scheduled for next week. Russia wants to be able to state it has control of the gas fields in eastern Ukraine to force the outcomes in it's favor. This has little or nothing to do with Russia Speaking People so much as power over the people of Ukraine and ultimately some of the energy needs of Europe.

September 1, 2014

...The existing compromise offer envisages (click here) the start of a stage-by-stage settlement of Ukrainian Naftogaz debt for Russian gas under an exact schedule.
A new ministerial meeting, involving Russia, Ukraine and the European Union, is due in Brussels on September 6, the source said.
The parties will discuss the schedule for Ukraine’s repayment of debts for already supplied Russian gas and a compromise gas price option for a period of 12 months....

This is the Norwegian port of  Kårstø in Rogaland where tankers prepare to transported to the market in Europe. 

Good-bye Russia. Natural gas as export from Ukraine provides the country with SOLVENCY to assist the end of it's over bearing Russian debt.

There is more to the civil war in Ukraine, but, the reason Russia wants to occupy the eastern region is to keep Ukraine under it's thumb and incapable of autonomous governance. Russia wants fiscal dependency of Ukraine so when any further elections come around the people will be discontent enough to vote Yanukovych back into leadership. That is not going to happen, the leadership in Ukraine is more than capable of leading it politically and into a safety zone with NATO. 

Russia is viewing NATO as an expansionist empire and is changing it's military assessment to match that description. In changing it's military assessment, Russia no longer a trading partner or ally to any country of The West and explains all to well why it abandoned Syria and why it is breaking treaties. Russia needs new leadership that removes the isolationist movement of the current government. It is an old world communist agenda which cannot keep up with the modern world.



...Norwegian gas (click here) is important for the European energy supply and is exported to all the major consumer countries in Western Europe. In energy content, the gas export in 2012 was about ten times that of the normal Norwegian production of electricity. Norwegian gas export covers close to 20 per cent of European gas consumption. Most of the exports go to Germany, the UK, Belgium and France, where Norwegian gas accounts for between 20 and 40 per cent of the total gas consumption....

Europe needs to install alternative energies with only gas supplements to it's energy future.