Thursday, October 23, 2008

This is a simplistic way of calculating the Presidential Poll Outcome

A = Popular Vote

B = Electoral College

In reality A = B

The way to predict that is to find the fractional differences between the two and apply it to raw polling results. Anyone applying those principles should be able to predict the outcome of the Presidential vote in November.

No, I am not going to do it for anyone. Do it yourselves. You can if you try.

HINT :: Historical Data and allow for population/voter registration changes. It isn't easy to get your mind around.