TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Friday 4 February 2005
An active monsoon trough lies across the Gulf of Carpentaria and Timor Sea. A
weak tropical low, 1005 hPa, is situated in the western Gulf of Carpentaria, and
there is the potential for another tropical low to develop off the Kimberley
coast of northwestern Australia. The most likely scenario is for tropical
cyclone formation in the Gulf of Carpentaria late on Sunday or on Monday.
The potential for development of a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Saturday: low,
Sunday: moderate,
Monday: high.
NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day...
Low = 10% or less
Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.
DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.
