Friday, October 21, 2016

Vigilance is always needed.

It doesn't matter if the storm isn't defined as tropical or sub-tropical, super storms begin in incidious ways.

October 21, 2016
2130.19z
UNISYS Water Vapor GOES East Satellite (click here for 12 hour loop - thank you) 

Pre-Otto has increased it's central circulation to a higher velocity. That velocity is now drawing water vapor off the equatorial region.

The ITCZ is being depopulated by the Pre-Otto vortex.

October 21, 2016
2130.19z
UNISYS Water Vapor north and west hemisphere satellite (click here for 12 hour loop - thank you)   

What time of day is it on the east coast of the USA? 

6:40 PM EST. What happens in the evening in October? The sun goes down. What was drawing the water vapor to latitudes nearer the equator? The direct rays of the sun. Where are the direct sun's rays at sunset?

As the world turns the direct sun's rays move with it.

October 21, 2016
2130.19z
UNISYS Visual satellite of the north and west hemisphere (click here)

WATER VAPOR GENERATION is done by the direct rays of the sun. What happens when the sun moves across Earth and a hemisphere becomes dark? 

When the sun travels and dark takes over a hemisphere the air cools. Where is the heat sustained? The velocity of the insidious super storm now dominates the air movement and NOT the sun. The insidious super storm Pre-Otto now has no competition for the water vapor. The velocity of the Pre-Otto increases as it draws the hot water vapor off the equator.

Pre-Otto may achieve a higher velocity, but, it may not be enough to produce a hurricane. Maybe the velocity will dissipate tomorrow when the sun comes up and Pre-Otto will move north and lose the hot water vapor off the equator. But, tomorrow, even in competition with the sun for water vapor, Pre-Otto will survive only to have it's way with equatorial water vapor when the sun no longer robs the storm of it's water vapor. By this time tomorrow, if Pre-Otto sustains and builds, it will become a far higher velocity and become a tropical storm threat.

Currently, coastal North Carolina is shadowed in complete darkness and very heavy rain is occurring. A front is moving through. Pre-Otto will not move north.