Sunday, April 26, 2015

Stay off the mountain ! These temperatures are at base camp. All melt waters still apply.

Snow forecast.com (click here)

At the above table gives of forecast.com, the weather forecast for Mount Everest at the specific elevation of 6564 m. Any prediction above that elevation is based on unknown calculations.

According to the forecast.com website base camp is at greater than 12,000 feet. There needs to be clarification by the website as to the accuracy of the temperatures involved. Transparency should exist to the equations used to determine higher elevation weather and temperatures on the mountain.
 
The temperatures from STAGNANT air masses is warming and melting the snow. There is no safe place in unstable snow and/or ice falls.

April 25, 2015
1100
Mostly Cloudy. 

The clouds will hold the warmer air against the ground. If the clouds are gone it may or may not become colder once the albedo returns.

Climbers have to pass through Base Camp where temperatures are maintained as above freezing. Even if 12,000 feet is base camp the dangers of melt water remains the same. 

If there are climbers above the melt water point they will have to pass through an unstable snow/ice. That also assumes there is no change in any snow/ice above Base Camp. That is not accurate. As the melt water occurs at lower elevations it provides for space to move snow down by pure gravity. That means there is danger along the entire route, potentially to the peak.

This record of temperatures and conditions at forecast.com has to be accurate as climbers rely on weather conditions to decide there best options. Currently, there are inaccuracies by their own admission in making the statement of "specific elevation of 6564 m. Our sophisticated weather models allow us to provide snow forecasts for the top, middle and bottom ski stations of Mount Everest." Links within the website rely on the same graph for information on weather. There is no snow report, only, weather. While that is necessary, it is not the only parameter required to determine stability of the snow and ice along the traverse of the mountain
 
To right is an albedo chart.

April 25, 2015
By Peter Holley 

A senior mountain guide (click here) said that at least 17 people were killed after an avalanche triggered by Nepal’s massive earthquake slammed into a section of the Mount Everest mountaineering base camp, and 61 others were injured. 

Ang Tshering of the Nepal Mountaineering Association said early Sunday that 22 of the seriously injured were taken by helicopter to Pheriche village, the nearest medical facility. Bad weather and poor communications are hampering more helicopter sorties.

The avalanche began on Mount Kumori, a 22,966-foot mountain just a few miles from Everest, roared through the nearby Khumbu Icefall and slammed into base camp, sending hundreds of climbers running for their lives, according to the Associated Press....

April 26, 2015
2000 
Mostly Cloudy

Everest is melting.

29,029 feet in altitude maximum elevation - Temperatures measured are at 6564 meters.

8,848 meters maximum elevation - Temperatures measured at 2000 meters.

5.5 miles maximum elevation - Temperatures measured at 1.24 miles

The hot climate has reached to at least 1.24 miles above the surface of Earth. I find it interesting some of Earth's hottest air not only caused an avalanche, but, caused it after an earthquake. Melt water is most likely making it's way into cracks and crevasses that destabilizes the region with hydraulic pressure.

Kindly report any 'felt' quake. Thank you.

If you felt this earthquake, report your experience on the “USGS Did You Feel It?”website for this event.

Impact - Did You Feel It? - Tell Us! (click here)


Locations of Nepal and Mount Everest
Categories: Featured, Natural Hazards

A magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Nepal on April 25, 2015 at 06:11:26 UTC. Visit the USGS event page to learn more about this earthquake.
For an estimate of the earthquake’s impact, visit the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) website (click here).

There are guided tours providing very expensive services, but, little transparency to the snow or ice conditions, including melt waters. These costs have remained stable for at least two years. I don't believe they offer any travel insurance.

Mount Everest (click here) you're going to shell out a minimum of $30,000. Most western guiding companies charge around $65,000, and if you're going all-out on a private expedition with an imported chef and constant access to Instagram, your trip might run as high as $100,000.

Climbers at higher elevations will have some provisions for their return. If they can't find an alternate route more safe they will run out of food and water as well as oxygen if needing it to reach the summit.