Sunday, June 15, 2014

The 2013 Worldwide Threat Assessment

Arab Spring (click here)

Although some countries have made progress towards democratic rule, most are experiencing 
uncertainty, violence, and political backsliding. The toppling of leaders and weakening of regimes have 
also unleashed destabilizing ethnic and sectarian rivalries. Islamist actors have been the chief electoral 
beneficiaries of the political openings, and Islamist parties in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco will likely solidify 
their influence in the coming year. The success of transitioning states will depend, in part, on their ability 
to integrate these actors into national politics and to integrate—or marginalize—political, military, tribal, and business groups that were part of or benefited from the old regimes. At the same time, transitions that fail to address public demands for change are likely to revive unrest and heighten the appeal of authoritarian or extremist solutions. 

Three issues, in particular, will affect US interests: 

• Ungoverned Spaces. The struggles of new governments in places like Tripoli and Sanaa to extend 
their writs, as well as the worsening internal conflict in Syria, have created opportunities for extremist 
groups to find ungoverned space from which to destabilize the new governments and prepare attacks 
against Western interests inside those countries. 

• Economic Hardships. Many states face economic distress—specifically, high rates of 
unemployment—that is unlikely to be alleviated by current levels of Western aid and will require 
assistance from wealthy Arab countries as well as reforms and pro-growth policies. Failure to meet 
heightened popular expectations for economic improvement could set back transitions in places such 
as Egypt and destabilize vulnerable regimes such as Jordan. Gulf states provide assistance only 
incrementally and are wary of new governments’ foreign policies and their ability to absorb funds. 

Negative Views of the United States. Some transitioning governments are more skeptical than 
their predecessors about cooperating with the United States and are concerned about protecting 
sovereignty and resisting foreign interference. This has the potential to hamper US counterterrorism 
efforts and other initiatives to engage transitioning governments

The