Thursday, June 19, 2014

A unilateral cease fire can have two purposes.

June 19, 2014 6:05 PM
Anita Powell
 — Separatists in Ukraine's (click here) restive east have rejected the government's offer of a unilateral ceasefire, and angry citizens in the streets of Kyiv have also given the idea a thumbs down. Many in the capital say they didn't stand for weeks in the bitter cold earlier this year to topple the former, Russia-friendly president - only for their new president to pander to Russian aggression.

While Petro Poroshenko's peace plan has won the approval of France and Germany, it puts him in the dangerous position of alienating his support base not even two weeks after his inauguration – and this, in a nation with a history of ousting unpopular leaders.

No one was surprised when pro-Russian fighters in eastern Ukraine, known for their brutal guerrilla tactics, immediately rejected the new president’s offer of a unilateral ceasefire in return for the rebels putting down their arms or leaving the country. Such a deal, President Poroshenko said, would bring an end to the conflict that has ravaged eastern Ukraine since the country's pro-Russian president was toppled in February following mass anti-government protests during which more than a hundred demonstrators were killed by security forces....

The unilateral cease fire can better define the enemy and the allies to the enemy. I read where Russia was moving forces back to Eastern Ukraine's border. That isn't good. By holding a unilateral cease fire those causing the violence and attacks on Ukraine can be better defined.

This will also allow President Poroshenko to recapture the focus of his administration. I realize there were profound sacrifices made by Ukrainians to remove Yanukovich from power. A great deal has been learned after he left power and the oligarchs began to move their personal militias into an active capacity. I still can't believe that was the only national security strategy by Yanukovich, but, he completely relied on Russia to provide security to any external problems. Yanukovich had already presented Russia with Ukraine during his presidency.

But, to return to what is prudent today, Ukraine has many problems and all are primarily economic. President Poroshenko is a very successful business man capable of working with Ukraine business leaders to move the country forward and begin the long walk back to a government that is solvent and no longer reliant on Russian generosity.

There is also a unique man of Ukrainian birth already engaged in moving Ukraine forward.


 
Mar 25, 2014 9:05 AM ET
...Andrey Popel, (click here) is paying particularly close attention to the conflict in Ukraine.
The 29-year old director at New York-based Greylock helped the hedge-fund firm invest in the sovereign debt of the country last year and is now backing company debt from his homeland. He also has family in eastern Ukraine, from where he emigrated to the U.S. 15 years ago.
“Ukraine has the unique opportunity to get rid of kleptocracy and cronyism and emerge as one of the least corrupt, pro-human rights, pro-business, pro-West countries in Eastern Europe,” Popel said in a telephone interview. “Unfortunately the Crimean situation diverts attention from this cleansing process and makes it a lot more difficult.”...

The Ukrainian President cannot squander the time in diverting all Ukraine resources to war where Russia is heavily weighted financially. Russia can back the Ukrainian insurgency for a long time and wear down the Ukraine's fiscal stability to force it to collapse. It is obvious that is Russia's intentions. Or at least that is Mr. Putin's intentions. I am sure there are other Russian party leaders that see this entire circumstance very differently, however, they hold no clout today.

Right now. Today. Ukraine cannot leverage military power in the manner necessary against Russia's persistent meddling. If the confrontation continues Ukraine my lose it's ability to sovereignty. That would be tragic. The country needs economic strength while it's military continues to reorganize and build strength itself. 

Ukraine wanted to have open markets to both Russia and former Russian states while building European markets as well. In return Ukraine can seek a balance of trade with all these trading partners. It is the economic strength of the country that needs repair while it's military continues to assess it's abilities and it's current enemy. A civil war will not help trade with either Europe or Russia and could discourage other investors from coming into Ukraine. The people need to trust their President. Peace should supersede war. Those causing deaths to innocent people will have to be contended with even if in due time. I am sure no deaths and threats are going unnoticed.