Friday, November 08, 2013

Would the world exist today without the Non-Proliferation Treaty?

The New York Times has a graphic that is basically Iran Enrichment 101. (click here)
Iran needs to be serious about oversight, because, if they violate the agreement it will be the straw that broke the camel's back. No insult intended.

Iran today has enough enriched uranium and centrifuges to produce fuel for a weapon — a nuclear breakout — in between one and two months, according to a study by the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based group that has been skeptical of Iran’s peaceful claims. Despite Iran’s ability to produce fuel quickly, according to the study, it would take additional time to make a reliable warhead for a missile.

I am not familiar with the ISIS, (click here) so I can't sincerely accept their assessment. The IAEA is the authority most countries recognize in relation to compliance by any nation in regard to their nuclear capacity in energy and otherwise. I see no reason to escalate tensions. As example is Syria and the willingness of it's government to disarm from chemical weapons. It was a very pleasant surprise and that is how this works. It is how diplomacy achieves it's goals. The invasion into Iraq is not diplomacy, nor prudent foreign policy. Diplomacy is suppose to work. War is the result of failed diplomacy. So, if those involved with Iran are coming to an agreement, that is a very pleasant surprise and is what is suppose to happen. It is also a great of hope that will change the relationships of nations in the Mideast as well as The West.

I don't expect Israel to embrace any of this, simply because they have been the focus of sincere threat by an Iranian President. I realize the new President is more than anxious to stop any hostilities, but, that still doesn't erase what has happened in less than a year ago. It is up to Iran's Foreign Minister and President Rouhani to begin talks with Israel to normalize relations. It won't happen overnight, but, it should happen. There should be movement toward that mutual respect and recognition in the future. I am sure Palestine is on the lips of President Rouhani, but, he also needs to realize the sooner there is a healthy relationship with Israel, the sooner those words regarding Palestine can be part of a dialogue. 

I do expect Israel to respect the decisions of the global community. I don't expect Israel to act without reason, either. 

There are documents established July 1, 1968. They mean something. 

AGREEMENT BETWEEN IRAN (click here) AND THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY FOR THE APPLICATION OF SAFEGUARDS IN CONNECTION WITH THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

When one considers this has been going on since 1968 and Iran doesn't have nuclear weapon capacity, the previous documents seemed to have sustained their importance to date. I know the Iranian Revolution occurred in 1979, but, that doesn't mean it dissolves Iran's sovereign authority, including treaties and debt.

Iran is in the situation it is in because of extremist actions and words. The overthrow of the Shah set the country into a definition of rouge nation. Yet is was The West imposing the Shah on this Shi'ite nation as the true authority, a monarchy in the face of their own democracy. President Ahmadinejad never made peace easier and Bush practically declared war on them. It is now a matter of trustworthiness. It is up to Iran to prove it's peaceful intentions realizing the five nuclear nations would rather reverse the trend in nuclear arms stockpiling. 

It was the damn oil that set everything in motion so long ago, but, every nation bought into it. It sincerely makes no difference, the nuclear power is a blight on this Earth. It is that which is most dangerous and requires adherence to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The treaty is clear. Nuclear weapons are only permitted among the five nuclear nations outlining the balance of power in the world. All other nations were entitled to peaceful use of the technology. The reason the non-proliferation treaty was initiated was because of the strongly encroaching reality of human annihilation.

The Middle East must be nuclear free and Iran has to adhere by the treaty. The tensions between the nations of ethnic and religious bias has to be settled between those nations, but, the determination of nuclear capacity is dictated by a larger global community. 

Iran has to resign itself to conventional weapons and seeking to be a neutral nation that is a homeland to it's people. This will be a good beginning for Iran to redefine it's right to exist and it's desire for quality of life for all it's people.

...“There are important gaps that have to be closed,” Mr. Kerry said upon arrival in Geneva, seeking to temper rising expectations that a deal was close.

“I want to emphasize: there is not an agreement at this point in time,” Mr. Kerry told reporters at his hotel. “There are still some important issues on the table that are unresolved.” 

But the mere fact of Mr. Kerry’s presence here suggested that the United States believed that a deal was within reach, and that it required higher-level participation to resolve the remaining issues.

Mr. Kerry was meeting on Friday evening with Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, who oversees the multiparty negotiations.... 

There are talks ongoing between Saudi Arabia and Iran to share technology and eliminate fossil fuel energy production. There is every indication Iran has plans for peace and not mutual annihilation.

 Updated September 2013) (click here)
  • Saudi Arabia plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors over the next 20 years at a cost of more than $80 billion, with the first reactor on line in 2022.
  • It projects 17 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2032 to provide 15% of the power then, along with over 40 GWe of solar capacity.
In December 2006 the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Oman – announced that the Council was commissioning a study on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. France agreed to work with them on this, and Iran pledged assistance with nuclear technology.
Together they produce 416 billion kWh per year (2009), all from fossil fuels and with 5-7% annual demand growth. They have total installed capacity of about 90 GWe, with a common grid apart from Saudi Arabia. There is also a large demand for desalination, currently fuelled by oil and gas....
In February 2007 the six states agreed with the IAEA to cooperate on a feasibility study for a regional nuclear power and desalination program. Saudi Arabia was leading the investigation and thought that a program might emerge about 2009....

To complete the picture of peace's potential is to realize Israel and Palestine have to come to terms with each other and allow the Palestines to have a homeland no different than Israel.

The actions by Iran to be a part of a larger picture in a way that is benevolence adds brevity to the agreement regarding it's commitment to Non-Proliferation.