Friday, March 27, 2009

People are 'scared' of the future and what is occurring to correct its course.

Pesident Obama cannot use the old line, "I don't pay attention to polls." If one doesn't it can reflect the philosophy of the last President whom 'fixed' the election of 2000.

November 13, 2007 - Impeachment (click here)
A total of 64% of American voters say that President George W. Bush has abused his powers as president. Of the 64%, 14% (9% of all voters) say the abuses are not serious enough to warrant impeachment, 33% (21% of all voters) say the abuses rise to the level of impeachable offenses, but he should not be impeached, and 53% (34% of all voters) say the abuses rise to the level of impeachable offenses and Mr. Bush should be impeached and removed from office.

March 20, 2009
Independents Split on Barack Obama Job Approval (click here)
Independent voters are split on the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president, lowering his overall job approval rating to 56% from 60% a month ago according to the latest survey from the American Research Group.
Among all Americans, 56% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 37% disapprove. When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 49% approve and 44% disapprove.
Among Americans registered to vote, 57% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 37% disapprove. A total of 47% of independent voters approve of the way Obama is handling his job and 46% disapprove. In February, 53% of independents approved and 39% disapproved.
When it comes to the way Obama is handling the economy, 47% of registered voters approve of the way Obama is handling the economy and 46% disapprove. Among independent voters, 32% approve of the way Obama is handling the economy and 57% disapprove. In February, 43% of independent voters approved of the way Obama was handling the economy and 43% disapproved.
In a turnaround from February, 40% of Americans say the national economy is getting worse. This down from 63% in February. A total of 20% say the national economy is getting better, which is up from 4% in February and is the highest in the past year....


While most people 'believe' in the new administration, the rapid fire speed at which it is deploying its strategy has Americans concerned. I also believe media sources that are attempting to 'one up' the President in popularity are taking advantage of 'uncertainty' seeking to tell folks how and what to think. While the President has repeatedly stated "The changes we have put in place will take time," the incremental changes in the economy seem to be a defeat and not a victory. Post election 'blues' one might say, but, at the same time there is a 'populous' trend that is destructive rather than constructive. Anger should not be replaced with hope.

It isn't as if the quickly placed policies weren't necessary, the economy is starting to return in areas where 'purchasing' is safe and 'the stimulus' is working, but, all this 'New America' looks to foreign and nearly too good too be true. Just as the First Lady is too good to be true. Has the military and its families ever been treated so well?

After eight years of abuse and fear, the American people are unfamiliar with anything besides oppression and exploitive politics. They aren't 'used to' the truth or transparency and the relief and reality it brings.


The first lady with troops and military families at Fort Bragg, N.C. (click here)
(Gerry Broome/AP)

The End of Excess (click here)
Kurt Anderson: "More than a year into the Great Recession, we still aren't sure if there's a bottom in sight, and six months after the financial system began imploding, it's still iffy. The party is finally, definitely over. And the present decade, which we've never even agreed what to call -- the 2000s? the oughts? -- has now acquired its permanent character as a historical pivot defined by the nightmares of 9/11 and the Panic of 2008-09. Those of us old enough to remember life before the 26-year-long spree began will probably spend the rest of our lives dealing with its consequences -- in economics, foreign policy, culture, politics, the warp and woof of our daily lives. During the '80s and '90s, we were Wile E. Coyote racing heedlessly across the endless American landscape at maximum speed and then spent the beginning of the 21st century suspended in midair just past the end of the cliff; gravity reasserted itself, and we plummeted"

The Democratic leaders have been 'in the spot light' nearly as much as the President.

Pelosi And Reid Not Lifted By Rising Tide (click here)
Public Opinion Of Congress Is At A Four-Year High, But Democratic Leaders Are Still Graded Harshly
by David Herbert
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Approval numbers for congressional Democrats are edging upward after several years in the cellar. So why are the favorability ratings of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi going down?
The Speaker's unfavorable rating jumped to 43 percent in a
Diageo/Hotline poll released March 5, up from 34 percent at the end of January. And, for the first time this year, Daily Kos/Research 2000 polling shows Pelosi's disapproval rating eclipsing her approval rating, 38-42, in a poll conducted last week.
Reid has been sliding in public opinion polls as well. His favorable/unfavorable split was 18-27 in the March 5 Diageo/Hotline poll, down from an 18-20 split in the Jan. 28 poll. His 33-46 favorable/unfavorable split in a recent Daily Kos/Research 2000 -- a 13-point differential -- is his lowest of 2009 in that poll.
The Democratic leaders' waning support coincides with a marked uptick in public approval for Congress, whose favorability ratings had languished in the near-single digits until only recently. Thirty-nine percent of Americans back Congress, according to a March Gallup poll, up 20 points since January and the body's highest rating since February 2005.
Pollster.com has tracked a consistent upward trend in congressional approval ratings beginning back in December.
The trouble area for both Democratic leaders has been independents; they have seen their unfavorable ratings among these voters jump by double digits since the beginning of the new Congress. Pelosi's unfavorable rating among indies jumped 12 percentage points to 45 percent, while Reid's negatives shot up 13 points to 30 percent....


I believe the falling polls reflects a 'populous' trend following the scandal regarding executive pay at AIG. Case in point, Senator Chris Dodd and he isn't even out campaigning for re-election. I just don't believe the polls at this time are credible so much as lacking dimension. I realize questions are questions and are supposed to be limited in their response, but, polls don't necessarily pick up 'the pulse' of the answers. What is a 'yes' TODAY, might be a no tomorrow. Dodd's poll is definately a 'populous' issue.

Dodd's Re-Election Now Rated Toss Up (click here)
The Cook Political Report just changed its race rating on Connecticut's U.S. Senate race from Likely Democrat to Toss Up.The other 2010 Senate races that Cook rates Toss Up: Florida, Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio.

There is also the fact the upward ticks in the economy aren't 'felt' at the Breakfast table of Americans that voted Democratic in 2008. There is also a large percentage of uncertain. I just don't 'buy' that Zogby got 100% participation. (click here) That isn't realistic. The reality is that 'among' those that answered the question, the number was split 50-50 for Zogby. There are also other polls that report differently.

Poll shows Mass governor taking political beating (click here)
Associated Press - March 26, 2009 12:44 PM ET
Corrected Version
BOSTON (AP) - Gov. Deval Patrick is taking a beating politically as the state's economy sags and the media reports about patronage hirings on Beacon Hill.
A WHDH-TV/Suffolk University poll released Thursday showed Patrick with a 43% unfavorability rating - nearly equal to his 44% favorability rating.
Some 47% say someone else deserves to be elected next year, and 51% say Massachusetts is headed on the wrong track.
And a potential head-to-head matchup shows Patrick losing to Treasurer Timothy Cahill by 35% to 30%.
The survey of 400 registered voters was conducted March 17 through March 20. It had a margin of error of 4.9%.

Corzine neither lacks experience or insight, however, in NJ as in the country Republican Politics has become unilaterally ruthless. With Corzine it is DEFINATELY a 'Populous' issue and not a governing issue.

Posted on Fri, Mar. 27, 2009
What Corzine reversals mean (click here)
Some experts say the N.J. governor is adapting to tough politics. Others says he's hobbled by lack of experience.
By Cynthia Burton
Inquirer Staff Writer
In nine painful days, Gov. Corzine pushed forward and pulled back a plan to eliminate the state income-tax deduction for property taxes.
Soon after Corzine announced the proposal March 10, almost every Statehouse Republican charged that the governor was attacking the middle class. The Republican State Committee released a Web ad saying Corzine's budget essentially told the middle class to "Drop Dead."...

Case 'in point' with 'response' of those participating in the surveys.

A Better Poll for Specter? (click here)

A new Franklin & Marshall poll shows Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) beating primary challenger Pat Toomey (R), 33% to 18%. However, the survey found that 42% of registered Republicans were still undecided.

A Quinnipiac Poll released yesterday showed Toomey trouncing Specter, 41% to 27%.

Update: A Political Wire reader notes that for a Pennsylvania primary the pollster should survey at least 600 to 700 members of the relevant political party. The Franklin & Marshall poll, however, gathered data on just 220 voters.

2 polls show hurdles to Specter re-election (click here)
Thursday, March 26, 2009
By James O'Toole, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Two new surveys offer grim omens for Sen. Arlen Specter's re-election prospects.
The polls, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Franklin & Marshall College's Center for Opinion Research, contain dissonant depictions of a hypothetical Republican primary.
But their underlying messages portray a wounded incumbent potentially vulnerable to challengers in both the primary and general elections next year....

Measuring an area by 'spacial' distribution might be interesting but reflects more a socio-economic division than geographical one. All depends on how it is spun.

Red vs. Blue, Spacious vs. Compact (click here)

Greg Giroux notes how dominant the Democrats are in the geographically compact congressional districts. For instance, Barack Obama won a stunning 92 of the 100 smallest districts in the 2008 presidential race.However, the more wide-open and spacious a congressional district, the better Republicans perform. John McCain defeated Obama in 73 of the nation's 100 largest districts by land area.You can see this trend yourself on CQ's Election Results Map.

New York Race To Test Obama's Coattails (click here)
By Joe Murray, The Bulletin
Thursday, March 26, 2009

...But all of the drama surrounding the election could be extended.

A lawsuit is challenging the March 31 date was recently filed, and the suit says the election, set by Gov. David Paterson, D-N.Y., on March 11, needs a 30-45 day window for absentee ballots.

Neither candidate would object to such a delay.