Friday, December 29, 2006

Glacier study reveals chilling prediction


Shrinking glaciers

Worryingly, the book documents the changes of the glaciers in various stages. An analysis made by the researchers shows, for instance, that the total area of China's glaciers has shrunken by 3,248 square kilometres over the past four decades - about 5.5 per cent of the total acreage of China's glaciers in the 1960s. The ice shrunk by 7 per cent, or 389 cubic kilometres, during the same time.

And the shrinking shows no signs of slowing down - moreover, it is speeding up.
A researcher from the Kunming Institute of Botany in Southwest China's Yunnan Province found late last month that the glacier at the headstream of the Yangtze River in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has shrunk greatly over the last decade.


By his measurements, the glacier has retreated some 750 metres from its original place over the past 13 years, said Wu Sugong, who has frequented the Yangtze River headstream.

He noted the glacier there had shrunk some 500 metres during the previous 20 years.

His finding was echoed by Yao Tandong, who said the glacier shrinkage has sped up particularly over the past decade, with water melting from glacier equivalent to the runoff of the Yellow River, the second largest river in China, annually on average.

The book suggests that the glacier's shrinkage, which started in the 1950s, has already shed 586.9 billion cubic metres of water, roughly 10 times the volume of the Yellow River.
Yao said the shrinkage will lead to an "overdraft" of glacier storage, causing a disaster in the global ecosystem.


He said that as much as 64 per cent of the country's glaciers may disappear by the end of the 2050s - and most glacier will melt by 2100 if the current shrinking speed continues.
People living in the region of western China, who account for about 23 per cent of the country's total population, may see their lives seriously affected.


Water released from glaciers is their lifeline. Although this might mean a more generous water supply in the short term, it will inevitably result in worse desertification, said Yao.

He is strongly urging the government to take steps to help retain the country's glaciers. It should expand the glacier-monitoring system, which currently covers only three areas.

He also advocates constructing hydropower projects that make use of the valleys and lakes left by past glaciers, saying they will add moisture to the air over existing glaciers, stimulating snowfall.

Hopefully, China's glaciologists will find they still have enough ice left to research over the next century, said Yao.
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