Saturday, February 29, 2020

Assad will not give up Idlib and Russia will back him. This is also not a basis for global war, either. If I may?

The map to the left is from an article from 2018 describing the ongoing civil war in Syria. (click here) These are not new struggles, so much as reignited and the addition in recent times of Turkey is a real problem because Assad ultimately won't accept a Turkish presence. If one recalls, after Trump pulled USA troops from the region there was a Turkish incursion that rejected the Kurds as a partner to the region. Well, when Turkey basically declared an ethnic war against the Kurds, they in turn joined forces with Assad and other Shi'ites in the Shia Crescent. So, now the tensions between Turkey and Assad is manifesting as Assad moves to retake lost ground.

There is one other major problem Turkey is now facing, refugees seeking an opportunity to leave Turkey and Erodogan at the European border. (click here) From the picture it looks like the refugees do not deserve sympathy because they are primarily young men. The last time such a movement occurred Europe was not ready for it and the attacks in Paris were a direct result of extremists entering the country.


Refugees and migrants (click here) take an inflatable boat as they attempt to enter Greece from Turkey by crossing the Evros river on Saturday.

There are many sympathetic faces and stories, however, the militants manage to make themselves part of the masses.

28 February 2020

At least 33 Turkish soldiers (click here) have died in a Syrian government attack in opposition-held north-western Syria, in a major escalation of the conflict.

Turkey, which backs the opposition, says it hit 200 government targets in response, "neutralising" 309 soldiers.

Russia, Syria's key military ally, says Turkish troops were attacked in Idlib province by Syrian forces while operating alongside jihadist fighters.
The EU has warned the crisis could escalate further.

"There is a risk of sliding into a major open international military confrontation," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell tweeted. "It is also causing unbearable humanitarian suffering and putting civilians in danger."...

Before the conflicts in Syria that have taken many lives and instilled an ongoing civil war the coastal region of Syria is HISTORICAL land for the Alawites. In recent years the Alawites migrated from that coastal area because of war that had begun there. If the Alawites are now in Idlib, Assad will protect them beyond any attempt by Turkey or others, including potentially NATO to stop him.

Additionally, the coastal region of Syria are ancestral lands. Idlib provides a region that could pose a threat to that coastal region. Assad will see any forces other than his own as a threat to the Alawites retaking and resettling that coastal region.

So, basically, this is more of the same ongoing war in Syria with one more player in Turkey. Obviously, NATO is not seeing Turkey's actions as their own so much as an attempt for more land possession by Turkey in an effort to remove Kurds from near Turkey's borders or end any claimes there is a Kurdistan in any way.