Monday, May 12, 2025

The problem is the Pakistani ISI is more a victim than a solution.

It would be nice if the world operated in a predictable and sane manner, but, it doesn't for a lot of reasons. I remember the Late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto pointing to ISI officers posted outside her home and stating they are here to watch me while killers are waiting. That was and continues to be an accurate statement of the Pakistani ISI.

Pakistan and India in relation to the Kashmir area is a bit of a tinderbox. The area, including Afghanistan is littered with incredibly beautiful, but, treacherous mountains that experience frequent earthquakes. It is impossible to control the area through civilized law enforcement. The mountains are where bin Laden passed into Pakistan where he was tolerated near the military school in Pakistan. These terrorists, no different than bin Laden know exactly how to behave to avoid detection. It was the mountains where the Taliban survived and were tolerated by Pakistan until their bloody return to Afghanistan.

In the case of Kashmir it has basically "de facto" borders called "The Line of Control (the red line on the map)." There are ethnic areas in the world that cause sovereign countries discomfort, but, are basically ungovernable. The problem is that TOLERACE exists in these areas. The terrorist elements in these parts of world (no different than Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan after he was exiled from the civilized world) have a say in the control of the land and will attack the sovereign government if provoked.

U.S. Marines (click here) stop to allow donkeys they use to transport supplies to drink water from a river in Kandagal village, in Afghanistan's eastern Kunar province.

The terrorist elements govern basically as authoritarian militias and it doesn't matter they are sanctioned from munitions of any kind, they manufacture guns and bombs from elements they harvest from the land or steal. If one recalls the most troubling part of the USA military arrival in Afghanistan was the dependence of the people on opium poppies to make a living. It doesn't matter what is legal or illegal in these parts of the world, it is how the people live and survive. The people of Afghanistan that met our soldiers with donkeys after they parachuted in, only could respond civilly because of communication brochures they found in food and supplies dropped by American aircraft. Basically, the USA military, then under Don Rumsfeld grew a cultural understanding through these crude methods before the troops arrived. It worked. It was very hard pressed to find a television in the wilds of Afghanistan. Bin Laden used thumb drives to avoid detection.

India in this case decided it was time to disrupt the hostility of this region and took it upon itself to exert it's sovereign authority and make it clear killing randomly of innocent tourists is not an option. India is also having trouble with China along the "Line of Control." I am certain when innocent people were attacked India wasn't certain if such acts would get out of control with the contribution of munitions and supplies from China. I believe that is why India took the steps to end any incursions that might be encouraged by China. The issue of China as I write this is speculation. I don't believe there is evidence to China's involvement in tensions within Kashmir.

At any rate, this could be a new beginning for Pakistan and India. If they agree to MEANINGFUL dialogues that satisfy the issue of SECURE BORDERS it might work to end the tensions between them. Basically, Pakistan and India have sovereign borders in Kashmir. China is a neighbor and a hostile one toward India at times. If Pakistan and India find a dialogue that is productive and maintain it going forward, it can create a governance different than one of conflict and death.

The attacks by terrorist groups in Kashmir is not condoned by Pakistan, they are tolerated because that is how the ISI believes domestic peace can best be maintained. There are law enforcement activities in Pakistan. It is not a lawless land. Examples is the intervention of the Pakistani intelligence when Daniel Pearl was taken hostage and subsequently killed. There is also the issue of the Late President Pervez Musharraf and his frequent attacks by these groups. He would be traveling by car over a bridge and survived the explosion planned to kill him. So, there are methods of law enforcement in Pakistan, but, there is definitely a wild west, so to speak, that simply is not within law enforcement efforts, hence the idea that the ISI gives terrorists permission to operate. That is not exactly the case.

It really is up to the two sovereign authorities of these lands to find a way forward together. There are vast cultural differences that cause each country to hold their nose with their neighbors, but, that sort of disdain is best left to others. What has to be found is a way to identify the problems, work together to find reasonable solutions with an open mic between the two militaries. Also, Pakistan has to assure India there is no collusion with China with intent to harm India. 

Nuclear powers in the world have open dialogues between each other when tensions seem to be building without fully understanding the intent of those tensions. Wars start that cost many, many lives and precious sovereign assets when clear understandings of each other's intentions are not known. When it comes to Kashmir there is a clear powder keg between India and Pakistan. That powder keg has to be managed, otherwise sovereign attempts to tame that land with activities like tourism will chronically fail. I believe there is enough in common between India and Pakistan in this region such COOPERATION is very realistic. The leadership of both sovereign countries are fully capable of finding a way forward that will tame Kashmir and reduce the tensions that allowed for death on tourist land.

by Admiral James Stavridis

Following the killings of two dozen tourists (click here) picnicking in a meadow in the Kashmir region two weeks ago, India and Pakistan are on high military alert and trading accusations and sanctions. The Indians believe the Pakistanis sponsored the killings through longtime support of the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba. (An offshoot, the Resistance Front, claimed responsibility.) On Wednesday morning, India began a “focused, measured and non-escalatory” operation against nine sites of “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan, according to its ministry of defense.

While India administers Kashmir, both countries claim it, and significant numbers of troops — including highly trained special forces — are nose-to-nose on the disputed boundary. Both sides are breaking agreements for trading goods and conducting shipping at their Indian Ocean ports, and a crucial water treaty has been suspended. The US and China are attempting to calm the situation, to no avail....

7 May 2025
Peter Beaumont

For a range of reasons (click here), Lashkar-e-Taiba is the most dangerous terrorist group operating in South Asia after al-Qaeda.

...Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) is a long-established Islamic salafist militant group (click here) founded in 1986 in Pakistan and designated as a terrorist group by many countries. Its 2008 attack on Mumbai killed 166 people, including a number of foreign nationals.

Founded as the armed wing of the Markaz Dawat-ul Irshad, the centre for proselytisation and preaching, LeT emerged during the period of the then Pakistani leader Zia-ul-Haq’s policy of “Islamisation”, which aimed to turn Pakistan into a global centre for political Islam.

Ideologically, LeT expounds a vision of a global Islamic caliphate including the reclamation of “lost” Islamic lands through the twin efforts of preaching and armed struggle....


...The relationship between LeT and other Islamist groups and Pakistani institutions, not least the army and Inter-Services Intelligence agency [ISI], is complicated and murky.

While Islamabad has backed armed Islamic groups as proxies in Kashmir and Afghanistan in the past, the present links are more opaque.

Historically, Pakistan saw support for armed groups in the 1980s and 1990s as a successful strategy, not least over the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan....