Monday, April 17, 2017

Russia is not a passive observer. The region, no doubt, is worried about Trump's impulsivity.

April 17, 2017

Russia’s policies (click here) regarding the South China Sea (SCS) dispute are more complex than they might seem. Moscow’s official position presents Russia as an extra-regional actor with no stakes in the dispute. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Russia “had never been a participant of the South China Sea disputes” and considers it “a matter of principle not to side with any party.” However, behind the façade of formal disengagement is Russia’s military build-up in the Asia-Pacific region, and the multi-billion dollar arms and energy deals with the rival claimants. These factors reveal that even though Moscow may not have direct territorial claims in the SCS, it has strategic goals, interests, and actions that have direct bearing on how the SCS dispute evolves....


...Russia’s military cooperation with China has progressed to the point that President Putin called China Russia’s “natural partner and natural ally.” The two countries’ most recent joint naval exercise – “Joint Sea 2016” – took place in the SCS, and became the first exercise of its kind involving China and a second country in the disputed SCS after The Hague-based tribunal ruling on China’s “nine-dash line” territorial claims....

...The first level – systemic balancing – is driven by the global power distribution and perceptions of major threats. As a systemic balancer, Russia challenges the U.S.-led unipolarity in multiple ways, as evidenced by its policies in Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria. The drive to balance the system leader (the United States) makes Russia seek alignment with China, which, like Russia, also challenges American unipolar dominance and perceives the U.S. “Pivot to Asia” as a major threat to its security....

No fly-bys with Russia yet? Are they going to let the Carl Vinson leave the area? Or is this it? At this point the Carl Vinson is a lonely soldier counting on Japan and South Korea. I mean. This seems a bit strange to me. Entering into waters where two major nuclear powers exist, especially considering China 'was going to handle it.'


17 April 2017
By Neil Connor

China and Russia (click here) have dispatched spy vessels to shadow Donald Trump’s ‘armada’ as it steams to North Korean waters, amid rising tensions over Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.

Japanese media reported the deployment as Mike Pence, the US vice president, warned Pyongyang the “era of strategic patience is over” during a visit to South Korea.

Beijing sought Russian help in averting a crisis over North Korea last week, as concerns grow in China that Donald Trump is seeking to confront North Korea over its weapon’s program....