Friday, August 03, 2018

The USA debt just passed $21.3 trillion. The US Treasury is planning to increase bond sales in the next 3 months with higher interest rates to increase buyer incentives. Increased interest rates also increases the USA’s debt and deficit.

Next auction of US Treasury Bonds will be increased by $7 billion including a new 2 month bond to increase liquidity.

The US Treasury under Trump/Mnunchen will increase US borrowing $30 billion each quarter. The borrowing in the second half of 2018 is $769 billion which is an increase of 63% over 2017.

Trump/Munuchin has stated the increase in borrowing would be countered by economic growth. That has not borne out. The US budget deficit, not the budget alone, but the deficit will be near $1 trillion by 2019 and surpass $1.5 trillion by 2028.

Financing the US Debt, not deficit, was $458 billion in fiscal 2017 and so far financing 2018 is $415 billion. 

The tax and withholding has dropped 1% from the same time last year; a fall in US Treasury income of $17 billion; which explains the new 2 month bond offering to shore up liquidity to pay the bills. The government shutdown isn’t about anything except the lack of Treasury income predicted to pay for tax cuts and additional government spending. Basically, Trump/Munuchin are losing ground on their own budget projections and spending exceeds the expected income from any economic growth.

Bottom line is White House’s tax bill looked great on paper but is a sinking ship. And, oh by the way, housing sales are down, too.