The two entries below illustrate one of the worst if not the worst hurricane in modern times. Hurricane Andrew of 1992. I haven't investigated the possiblity of "Andrew" being fueled by a North Atlantic Oscillation but considering there is an 'aire flow' of the two left images of the satellite view leading to the north it cannot be ruled out without further investigation. The storms we are experiencing today is directly related to Global Warming so they are different to some extent to their predictable paths. But the actual dynamics of these storms are reasonably the same, especially in their behavior when crossing the ocean then land then the Gulf.
Kindly note, Hurricane Andrew was a long time at sea, crossed the tip of Florida and then entered the Gulf of Mexico. The 'impact' of "Andrew" of Florida was devastating. At the time in 1992 when "Andrew" crossed Florida it was stated to be a Cat 4. Further examination of the wreckage clearly exhibited a Cat 5. What has never been said is that did "Andrew" actually and potentially could have gone to a Cat 6.
That said, there are two points I think these pictures make very clear.
1. I have stated the longer a storm is out at sea and the longer the travel in nautical miles the more powerful the storm is when it impacts on civilization. The illustration below of the path of Hurricane Andrew is a very clear example of a storm very long at sea, water loving and headed straight for the hotter waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
2. I have stated these storms are somewhat whimpy when crossing land. It is a common 'error' for climatologists to underestimate these storms in paths such as "Emily" has now where they cross over land masses frequently. When these storms do this they frequently look as though they are diminishing and people in the path of these stroms feel hope this is good news. Those that serve leadership in government are people too. All too frequently people delay their decision making announcements to the people they are supposed to protect to leave areas estimated to be in the path of these storms for this 'oscillation' reason alone. That should never effect any warning system to civilization in the path of these storms. These storms are dangerous and should never be seen as diminishing. The reason is why I stated Number 1. The longer they are at sea, the more nautical miles they cover, the stronger they get.
3. To understand the point I am making here we will number "Andrew" images 1 thru 4 with number 1 at the right and number 4 to the left of the picture. The composite of "Andrew" clearly show a storm that was questionably stronger while over the cooler waters of the Atlantic Ocean; to most viewing progress of these dynamics in picture number one. As "Andrew" traveled closer to Florida in picture number two it was very organized and very strong. In picture number three "Andrew" having crossed land, looks diminished however once reaching the Gulf of Mexico which has hotter waters than the Atlantic in picture number four "Andrew" again picks up strength and becomes more organized than in picture number two.
The point to this enter is that a history of looking at storms over decades clearly reveals these are not just hurricanes that will hopefully go away. They have heat budgets that are CONSTANT and although 'oscillation' exists both the path and vorticity can be estimated and counted on in a way that saves peoples lives without causing doubt.
It is my concern that these storms under the influence of a Global Warming will indeed follow estimates of the last decade of scientists and exceed Cat 5 into Cat 6, if not this year than in the near future with the storms starting early and increasing in velocity as the season goes on.
WE NEED TO BE SERIOUS and not wish these dangers away. That won't happen. I want people to be smart about their safety and put it first above all else and leave when told to leave an area without a second thought that the storm may fizzile away.
NO MORE TAKING CHANCES.
Americans.
You gotta convince them, ya know?
