Tuesday, March 10, 2020

The population numbers I referred to yesterday came from this website. It looks credible to me.

This is the graph (click here) the graph of the China cases. It is easy to see the rapid spread of the disease, but, it also is easy to see the actions China took were effective and there is a leveling off of COVID-19 cases. The other graph is below and it shows the OUTCOME of the cases recorded in the amount of cases graph to the left. The virus took many lives in the beginning, but, as China became aware of the virus and began quarantine and treatment the outcomes began to change.

Both these graphs are current as of yesterday and that is the best anyone can hope for as the conclusion of today has not occurred yet.

The graph below is the number of cases in the USA. It is far more troubling than that of China's trend as of today. The USA graph of the number of cases shows a very slow increase. It is the opposite of China. The USA's effected population has not leveled off yet. The USA exhibits the trend of lacking a comprehensive policy that is being applied to all occurrences. In other words, as one state assesses it's outbreak it formulates a strategy to contain and end the virus' attack. As one state grows it's expertise, another state is experiencing new onsets. There is a continued number of growing cases because there is no central strategy out of US Homeland Security.
The strength of the USA's First World status isn't really showing in the "Recovery vs. Death" rate. I would expect the survival and recovery rate to be far better than China's, but, according to this graph, it isn't. It shows a death rate that exceeds a recovery rate at this point in time. The fact the USA is depending on the state Governors to assess and mandate a strategy shows through this graph. The "initial phase" of assessment is being repeated and people are falling through the cracks. There is no method of containment and the president continues to deny the severity of the outbreak.

What is sincerely troubling is this graph of the USA statistics. There is a growing number of cases in the USA, but, the recovery rate is flat. It reflects the growing death rate in the "death vs recovery" graph above. The USA is struggling to even admit it has a problem and governors are working with a handicap as they lack a central authority or strategy.



















The one aspect that applies here as well is the inherent spread of the virus. In other words, China was the initial exposure to the virus and its statistics will become mature (statistics depends on numbers) earlier than that of the USA. The first case in the USA was some time after China's first reporting and even longer from China's first case. So, to say that the USA's trend is mature to the strategy it holds to end the spread and foster recovery of those exposed is inaccurate, however, I did expect a good response even at this point and it simply is not showing up.

The USA had a much longer "lead in" about the virus and China had none. My expectations is not wrong.

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