Thursday, June 20, 2013

They are having fits. Too bad.

The Fed has provided a huge pillow for Wall Street to fall into, they need to do exactly that. I would not have been that generous.

The S&P 500 (click here) recorded its biggest daily decline since November 11, 2011, on the year's heaviest day of trading. All 10 S&P sectors were sharply lower, with 94 percent of stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange down for the day and more than four-fifths of Nasdaq-listed shares ending lower.

The Dow Jones industrial average dived 353.87 points, or 2.34 percent, at 14,758.32. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 40.74 points, or 2.50 percent, at 1,588.19. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 78.57 points, or 2.28 percent, at 3,364.64....

The USA small business sector is losing income. They do a percentage of their business over the net. International currency is unstable and falling. The value of the dollar.

On the first banking day of 2013, January 2nd, one USA dollar could be exchanged for 8.4918 South African Rand. 

Today, one USA dollar can be exchanged for 10.0233 South African Rand. That is a fall in value of 18% or if one is favoring the US Dollar that is an 18% gain. 

The Euro today is slightly down against the USA Dollar, however, it has been a roller coaster ride and there were times since January 2, 2013 there were significant loses in the value of the Euro. All those ups and downs are rough on the small business sector of the USA.

The dynamic for the Euro is the same for the Canadian and Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar was marginally worse. 

The point is while Wall Street has been having a "Hey Day" they have been doing so at the expense of both small business in the USA and the USA treasury. The Glory Days of Wall Street from QE1 to QE2 had slowed the job growth while robbing income to the USA Treasury. The more people employed the more taxes paid, the more the USA Treasury recovers from a decade of raids. 

I think there is solid evidence QE3 finally helped the job market in the USA. I am pleased it is this version that still reigns until Wall Street has been successfully weaned from an abundance of cash flow. 

The next year will prove insight to inflation, monetary stability and global security of their financial status. It is best to apply these dynamics in portions that are reasonable and measured, BUT, it has to forward. There is not going to be an implosion and it is time normalization occurred.

This will shock the soxes off folks, but, I would not expect the DOW to fall below 11,000. It has been there before and before QE3. QE3 occurred in September 2012.

May 21, 2012
Expect to see Dow 11,000 before Dow 14,000 (click here - lots of charts to give everyone that feel good feeling)

I mean you guys have got to be joking. 15,000 in a year? Get over yourselves.

Japan cannot tolerate this current currency roller coaster. Nor should anyone expect them to.

Japan is an ally to the USA, but, I am quite confident and for many reasons it sure doesn't feel that way. But, this is a big insult to the Japanese economy. When the USA has weak allies, the USA is weak. Enough. 

June 20, 2013

During the local session (click here) the Yen shed much of its recent gains against the US Dollar, falling by over 1 per cent to a low of 98.28 Yen per Dollar.
The Japanese Yen exchange rate was in the region of 97.9500 Yen to one US Dollar as of 11:15 am GMT

The Asian currency dropped against a bullish US Dollar after the latter currency broadly strengthened in response to the highly-anticipated outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting.

After extensive discussion with the Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke asserted that if the economic situation in the US should continue to improve US quantitative easing could be phased out by the end of next year....