Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Australia is reeling. Trump will rely heavily on cabinet officers.

He told his electorate he would stand by his promises. If he continues down that path it will mean a great deal of turbulence for the global markets. The only country happy today is Russia. I would not doubt a state dinner with Russia will be on the way.

Australia is not NATO, so the alliance may continue if it falls into a benevolent position within the Trump administration.

November 9, 2016
By Peter Martin

President Donald Trump will declare economic war (click here) on our biggest customer, wipe unprecedented amounts off global stock markets, usher in extraordinary financial instability, and risk turning the world's biggest economy into a basket case by pushing its national debt past 100 per cent of GDP.

And that's just what's known about his economic program. The Economist observed in the leadup to the election that while his policies were unusually short on detail, their direction "could not be clearer".

China takes 1 in every 3 shiploads of Australian exports, more than any nation has since Britain in the 1950s according to consultant Saul Eslake. Even small variations in what it wants sends our budget into conniptions.

Trump has promised from "day one" to designate China a "currency manipulator". That would allow him to whack a giant 45 per cent tariff on everything it tries to sell to the US, a prospect he has mentioned with relish. The US is China's biggest market, taking 18 per cent of everything it sells. China would have to retaliate (somehow), raising the prospect of a trade war that would damage both China and the US. War gaming by the respected Peterson Institute says it could push the US into recession by 2019. The last time that happened, during the global financial crisis, Australia avoided recession with help from China. We mightn't get it a second time....