Tuesday, September 08, 2015

There is no consolidated forces to oppose Assad. The migration is because of the anarchy not direct threats from Assad.

September 8, 2015

New Zealand (click here) should take only women and children refugees from Syria and tell the men to return home and fight, NZ First leader Winston Peters says.
Asked about the Government's decision to bring in an emergency intake of 600 Syrian refugees over three years, Mr Peters reiterated his position that more refugees should be settled - but only if immigration levels were significantly reduced....

September 8, 2015
By Andrea Vance

Migrants headed to Germany on foot walk along a motorway in Roszke, Hungary on Monday.

The head of Auckland University's Islamic Studies Research Unit (click here) says comments by Winston Peters on male refugees are "irresponsible".
The NZ First leader said the Syrian refugees should be sent back to "fight for the freedom" of their country.
In welcoming a move by the Government to offer 600 emergency places to Syrian refugees, Peters said, "I think we can do better, but we can't while we've got mass immigration....

The problem with Syria is simply the fact the only consolidated militia/military is Assad's forces. There is no consolidation of forces anywhere else in Syria. Each settlement in Syria has it's own leadership. Daesh has not been successful in it's ability to amass larger forces under a single leader. Every camp sight along any road has it's own militia.

The large destruction of cultural icons, such as Palmyra, is as much an attempt to intimidate other groups as well as instilling Daesh as an authority without question of power. The civil war in Syria has created a struggle for survival as well as complete disruption of borders.

..."At the moment in Syria, and Iraq as well, I've seen figures of up to 1000 different rebel groups fighting. So, when you say go back and fight for your freedom - which one of these groups do you want them to join?...

The idea the struggle for power in Syria should bring sympathy is misplaced though. The migration of people out of the region into Europe has to be met with skepticism as well as compassion. There is simply no authority in Syria as there is anarchy.

In leaving Syria the migrants are finding safety. Inside Syria they face death by any number of groups and outside Syria and Iraq there is safety. Russia is backing Assad simply because there is no viable authority otherwise. The power sharing government may be met with nothing but figure heads stating they are the Free Syrian Army. If the opposition to Assad is to have a power sharing government it is a question as to how much stability can the Free Syrian Army bring to Syria?

There may be no adequate sovereignty of the Free Syrian Army. The training of that group in Saudi Arabia is proving to be a worthless effort. When McCain went to Syria to establish an opposition force to Assad there was no consolidation of any military strength, it was all a facade with no muscle. The leadership is getting a paycheck without authority.

...A decision on the humanitarian intake will be announced on Wednesday after advice is taken from Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, who has been in talks with UNHCR officials in Paris and Geneva over the past two days....

The UNHCR (United Nations High Commission for Refugees) is asking for commitments from all governments to disperse the load of migration from Syria. It is not a bad idea since any threat of receiving dangerous people from Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan will be diluted in the randomness of location. Migrants cannot consolidate power if they are scattered and diffuse. If anything, family groups will probably remain together which would bring far better organization to end the chaos they are leaving behind.

Each country is going to have a challenge to bring order to this migration. The less resources a country has the more help they will need from the UN mission otherwise there is a potential for increased anarchy in any receiving country. That was Hungary's concern. "How does it contain disorder within it's borders if migrants were simply allowed to wander the country and it's population?"

When the migrants organized a walk, the ability of Hungary's security forces became more concentrated on a single direction movement. Hungary was correct, even if appearing a lack of sympathy, in containing the scattering of migrants throughout the country.

Simply said, the migrants have the sheer potential to cause anarchy and far more of a military response if they conduct their presence in anger rather than resolve to accept foreign control of their plight.

The West's first response to the Syrian situation and migration is compassion and understandably so, but, that compassion does no one any good if it results in a disastrous outcome. Citizens are going to have to accept the authority of it's own government to end this crisis regardless of how the rest of their neighbors view it. 

There is a question regarding the migration. Why and how can a family member return to Syria to bury the dead after fearing his own survival in order to migrate? I find that curious.