Monday, September 11, 2017

Irma has moved closer to the Atlantic Ocean and taken on some water vapor. Refueled, if you will.

September 11, 2017
0430.18z
UNISYS Enhanced Infrared Southeast Satellite (click here for 12 hour loop - thank you)

Irma is still a Cat. 2, but, it has taken on hotter water vapor from the Atlantic Ocean. That is what that big green plume is at the top of the circulation. The eye is still viable. It is the small orange dot.

Irma then used that refueling to move at a higher speed north toward the Atlantic Ocean.

September 11, 2017
0737.23
UNISYS Enhanced Infrared Satellite of the Southeast

Irma remains a somewhat deteriorating storm with a central pressure of 952 millibars and a wind speed of 85 knots per hour.

The last time Irma had a wind speed of 85 knots per hour was on August 31st. Irma has been a very long lived storm, moved very slowly with extensive damage all along the way.

16.90 -33.80 08/31/12Z 85 979 HURRICANE-2

When Irma achieved Cat. 2 status the first time it did so in six hours from a TS with wind speeds of 65 knots per hour and a central pressure of 979 millibars. This storm system appears to have a lot of tricks to play. I tend to lean into caution more than not.

23.50 -81.00 09/10/00Z 105 933 HURRICANE-3
24.10 -81.50 09/10/06Z 115 928 HURRICANE-4
25.00 -81.50 09/10/12Z 115 933 HURRICANE-4
26.20 -81.80 09/10/18Z 95 938 HURRICANE-2
27.50 -81.90 09/11/00Z 85 952 HURRICANE-2

It is correct to focus on the 'eye wall' of such a storm. It is the most dangerous. The movement of Irma to the Gulf side of Florida was somewhat predictable because of the temperatures of the water. While the Gulf communities received significant damage they did not expect; the Atlantic side of Florida received the wrath of the northeast quadrant of Irma.

I am not surprised Miami has dangerous streets now with cranes swinging in the wind. There should not be a mass return of people to these areas until an assessment of access routes have taken place and structural integrity is examined.

Large numbers of people live in the high rises. People have weight. The buildings are probably absent from most of it's tenants. The buildings need to be examined before everyone returns. Streets should remain closed until the assessments are complete. The emergency infrastructure should be intact first, but, these assessments conducted shortly after. Emergency infrastructure is necessary to return all residents to a safe return. Why mess it up now? Everyone conducted such a magnificent evacuation and saved countless lives. Let's keep it that way. There are children among those that evacuated. They need to be safe. Thank you.