Friday, April 21, 2017

The first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season has been named, Arlene.

April 21, 2017
1430.18z
UNISYS Water Vapor GOES East Satellite (click here for 12 hour loop - thank you)

In the past, when conditions were not in crisis, the Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and ended November 30. Since the climate crisis has taken hold there are chronic hurricane winds and/or tornadoes year round.

The two warmest Februaries on record are 2016 and 2017.

I have been watching this develop for nearly four days on and it is enormous and inverted. Yesterday, I thought there was a chance it was going to dissipate, but, it came back strong overnight and today it is he first hurricane of the season.

This graphic compares (click here) the year-to-date temperature anomalies for 2017 (black line) to what were ultimately the eight warmest years on record: 2016, 2015, 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005, 2009, and 1998. Each month along each trace represents the year-to-date average temperature anomaly. In other words, the January value is the January average temperature anomaly, the February value is the average anomaly of both January and February, and so on. The average global land and ocean surface temperature for January–February 2017 was 0.94°C (1.69°F) above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.8°F)—the second highest global land and ocean temperature for January–February in the 1880–2017 record, behind 2016 by 0.18°C (0.32°F), but 0.09°C (0.16°F) higher than 2015.

The anomalies themselves represent departures from the 20th century average temperature. The graph zooms into the warmest part of the entire history.

Below:


This graphic (click here) compares the year-to-date temperature anomalies for 2017 (black line) to what were ultimately the eight warmest years on record: 2016, 2015, 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005, 2009, and 1998. Each month along each trace represents the year-to-date average temperature anomaly. In other words, the January value is the January average temperature anomaly, the February value is the average anomaly of both January and February, and so on. The average global land and ocean surface temperature for January–February 2017 was 0.94°C (1.69°F) above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.8°F)—the second highest global land and ocean temperature for January–February in the 1880–2017 record, behind 2016 by 0.18°C (0.32°F), but 0.09°C (0.16°F) higher than 2015.
The anomalies themselves represent departures from the 20th century average temperature. The graph zooms into the warmest part of the entire history.
2017 is between the record of 2016 and 2015. Also to note is the distinct departure from 2010 of those three years. The Climate Crisis is real and imposing.

I am not surprised the first Atlantic hurricane is a monster and extremely early.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), (click here) the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.9 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).