September 2, 2015
By Jonathan Marcus
Just how far is Russia (click here) prepared to go to back the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad?
Recent sightings of brand new Russian armoured vehicles in Syria, of types never previously supplied to its ally, suggest that with the Assad regime suffering serious reverses, Moscow is intent on redressing the military balance.
On 20 August, a heavily-laden Alligator class landing ship of the Russian Navy, the Nikolay Filchenkov, was seen passing southwards through the Bosphorus.
On board, according to experts who have analysed the images, were trucks and armoured vehicles.
The ship was believed to be on its way to Syria.
Subsequently, the Syrian army has released video material that shows seemingly brand new BTR-82A infantry combat vehicles in action or on exercises - a variant of the vehicle that has never before been supplied to the Syrian military.
The vehicles appear to be in a Russian paint scheme and thus may have been taken straight from Russian army stocks.
Separate images have emerged of Russian Tigre military utility vehicles; again a type that has not been exported to Syria before....
It is doubtful the Middle East will ever be a place where democracy works with the exception of Israel.
The attempts of democracy has failed in the Middle East.
The USA experiment into Iraq stood the region on it's head. Bush's invasion completely destabilized the region. The only answer the political right wing can come up with was to permanently station US troops in Iraq for a forever war.
The WMD has been removed from Syria and now Russia is providing modern equipment to the Assad government. Russia has made it clear removing Assad from power was not an option.
The Iraqi government has been a failure. It cannot stabilize it's borders and provides a void for extremists to establish a base of operations. Arming the Kurds along the Turkey border proved to be a waste of time as Turkey has engaged in a border war that cost Kurds their lives. There is no cohesive commitment to any type of regional stability. The politics in Turkey is not going to allow a Kurdish territory in northern Iraq.
The idea the USA would fight a forever war was the failure of George W. Bush. Did he think the longer the Iraq war was taking the longer the American people would see the benefit of a forever war? When the USA left Vietnam there was no looking back. The disorder left behind has taken decades and today the people of Vietnam have a government they can live with.
The mideast region is becoming more chaotic and unstable. There is every reason Russia and China would take up efforts to rearm the regimes. We already know Russia has had words with Iran to set limits on mischief.
To leave the region's stability to the USA's next War President is nothing but foolishness. It would create more problems simply by the principles the USA would demand of Iraq and potentially Syria. Democracy doesn't work in the Middle East. War is not the way to create stability. War by definition destroys any previous government and begins a new system of order and society. Iraq had over ten years to establish that new order and society. Nothing worked. The USA tried it's methodologies and it was the worst thing that happened to the region.
Abrupt destruction of a society in order to 'nation build' has proven over and over and over that it is not a viable solution to despotism. We know that. Ask any scholar without political leanings how a country has to move into greater freedom and ultimately democracy. There is no war that is going to change a country overnight. Twelve years later and the USA is still trying to prop up Iraq. It'll never happen through nation building.
If Iraq and Syria is to maintain their borders as they existed while Saddam Hussein was in power there has to be a dictator. Does that mean there is chronic civil war? Maybe. Northern Ireland fought for hundreds of years before it finally made peace with Great Britain. Sovereignty is not a simple thing. The PEOPLE have to know their land, their needs, their government and the will to move in a different direction to secure their country's borders.
Freedom and democracy happens with education and generations of changing the face of a country, but, it has to be the people with the will to change that it finally occurs.
Do you know what is wrong with Iran? The USA is the problem. It has placed a despotic leader that smiled nice for pictures in control of Iran. When Iranias had enough of poverty they marched upon the Shah and the government collapsed. What replaced it was a theocracy. A theocracy is easy in that region of the world. Religion is a default setting. The rules are made for 'good faith living' and sets the laws into play as soon as the collapse occurs. Iran has been sophisticated enough to actually have elections that instill a government while the Supreme Leader remains the last authority. The elections brought Iran to the diplomatic table to end sanctions and their nuclear program.
Russia is currently rearming Assad. It has a right to do so. I hope it brings about stability to more of Syria other than just the corner where it is safe enough to build a theme park.
By Jonathan Marcus
Just how far is Russia (click here) prepared to go to back the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad?
Recent sightings of brand new Russian armoured vehicles in Syria, of types never previously supplied to its ally, suggest that with the Assad regime suffering serious reverses, Moscow is intent on redressing the military balance.
On 20 August, a heavily-laden Alligator class landing ship of the Russian Navy, the Nikolay Filchenkov, was seen passing southwards through the Bosphorus.
On board, according to experts who have analysed the images, were trucks and armoured vehicles.
The ship was believed to be on its way to Syria.
Subsequently, the Syrian army has released video material that shows seemingly brand new BTR-82A infantry combat vehicles in action or on exercises - a variant of the vehicle that has never before been supplied to the Syrian military.
The vehicles appear to be in a Russian paint scheme and thus may have been taken straight from Russian army stocks.
Separate images have emerged of Russian Tigre military utility vehicles; again a type that has not been exported to Syria before....
It is doubtful the Middle East will ever be a place where democracy works with the exception of Israel.The attempts of democracy has failed in the Middle East.
The USA experiment into Iraq stood the region on it's head. Bush's invasion completely destabilized the region. The only answer the political right wing can come up with was to permanently station US troops in Iraq for a forever war.
The WMD has been removed from Syria and now Russia is providing modern equipment to the Assad government. Russia has made it clear removing Assad from power was not an option.
The Iraqi government has been a failure. It cannot stabilize it's borders and provides a void for extremists to establish a base of operations. Arming the Kurds along the Turkey border proved to be a waste of time as Turkey has engaged in a border war that cost Kurds their lives. There is no cohesive commitment to any type of regional stability. The politics in Turkey is not going to allow a Kurdish territory in northern Iraq.
The idea the USA would fight a forever war was the failure of George W. Bush. Did he think the longer the Iraq war was taking the longer the American people would see the benefit of a forever war? When the USA left Vietnam there was no looking back. The disorder left behind has taken decades and today the people of Vietnam have a government they can live with.
The mideast region is becoming more chaotic and unstable. There is every reason Russia and China would take up efforts to rearm the regimes. We already know Russia has had words with Iran to set limits on mischief.
To leave the region's stability to the USA's next War President is nothing but foolishness. It would create more problems simply by the principles the USA would demand of Iraq and potentially Syria. Democracy doesn't work in the Middle East. War is not the way to create stability. War by definition destroys any previous government and begins a new system of order and society. Iraq had over ten years to establish that new order and society. Nothing worked. The USA tried it's methodologies and it was the worst thing that happened to the region.
Abrupt destruction of a society in order to 'nation build' has proven over and over and over that it is not a viable solution to despotism. We know that. Ask any scholar without political leanings how a country has to move into greater freedom and ultimately democracy. There is no war that is going to change a country overnight. Twelve years later and the USA is still trying to prop up Iraq. It'll never happen through nation building.
If Iraq and Syria is to maintain their borders as they existed while Saddam Hussein was in power there has to be a dictator. Does that mean there is chronic civil war? Maybe. Northern Ireland fought for hundreds of years before it finally made peace with Great Britain. Sovereignty is not a simple thing. The PEOPLE have to know their land, their needs, their government and the will to move in a different direction to secure their country's borders.
Freedom and democracy happens with education and generations of changing the face of a country, but, it has to be the people with the will to change that it finally occurs.
Do you know what is wrong with Iran? The USA is the problem. It has placed a despotic leader that smiled nice for pictures in control of Iran. When Iranias had enough of poverty they marched upon the Shah and the government collapsed. What replaced it was a theocracy. A theocracy is easy in that region of the world. Religion is a default setting. The rules are made for 'good faith living' and sets the laws into play as soon as the collapse occurs. Iran has been sophisticated enough to actually have elections that instill a government while the Supreme Leader remains the last authority. The elections brought Iran to the diplomatic table to end sanctions and their nuclear program.
Russia is currently rearming Assad. It has a right to do so. I hope it brings about stability to more of Syria other than just the corner where it is safe enough to build a theme park.
