Friday, August 28, 2015

Can Katrina happen again?

Climate Central (click here) has a rather good tool to understand sea level rise and the risk to coastal cities. 

The map to the left is found under "Surging Seas: Sea Level Rise (click here)

There are some alarming realities that are examined by this tool. As an example New Orleans is only six feet above current sea level. This website provides significant information regarding sea level rise and the danger to more than 3000 US coastal cities.

Superstorm Sandy provided an understanding of the storms since Katrina. The storms since 2005 have flooding capacity even when their central pressures and wind speed is not dangerous. 

Superstorm Sandy was a large storm in diameter and circumference. It was the size of the storm that carried enormous storm surge, not high velocity winds pushing a large storm surge. The storm surge with Superstorm Sandy was caused by the size of the wave and not the height of the storm surge. 

Said differently, Superstorm Sandy has much larger surface area that delivered flood waters over a short length of time. It was the large surface area of the storm surge that flooded the New Jersey - New York coastal area. It was similar to a saturation of the land. As the high water level came ashore it quickly saturated the coastal area and the water didn't stop 'washing ashore.' The shoreline received more water that piled on top of the water delivered before it.

Katrina and Superstorm Sandy have similar appearance to their aftermath, but, have very different physics. Katrina's surge was calculated to be 20 feet high while the Superstrom Sandy surge was wide and low. Katrina dumped water, but, Superstorm Sandy arrived like a railroad train delivering water that inundated the region. 

The physics of Katrina are not the storms of post Katrina. Superstorm Sandy is the profile of the storms post Katrina. Katrina cannot happen again, however, the danger to coastal cities still exists because of the continued capacity of large surface area storms such as Superstorm Sandy.