Thursday, August 31, 2017

There is significant movement in the troposphere and Harvey is weakening. This time I do believe there is no going back.

August 31, 2017
0930.20z
UNISYS Water Vapor Satellite of the north and west hemisphere (click here for 12 hour loop - thank you)

The vortex over Mexico has successfully launched a storm into the Pacific Ocean and the jet stream showed up. It does at times become the big mover to the air mass. It is moving that Pacific system that has been rippleless and lacking movement. So, things are moving. Harvey still exists by is weakening.

28.10 -94.80 08/29/06Z 40 997 TROPICAL STORM
28.40 -94.30 08/29/12Z 40 997 TROPICAL STORM
29.20 -94.30 08/29/18Z 45 994 TROPICAL STORM
29.00 -93.60 08/30/00Z 45 994 TROPICAL STORM
29.80 -93.40 08/30/06Z 40 990 TROPICAL STORM
30.50 -93.30 08/30/12Z 40 993 TROPICAL STORM
30.80 -93.10 08/30/18Z 35 998 TROPICAL STORM
31.70 -92.30 08/31/00Z 30 998 TROPICAL DEPRESSION

There was a big change in the central pressure of Harvey at the 6:00 PM satellite. The 6:00 AM is not posted yet.

Lidia showed up off Mexico at midnight. It is the primary driver to the weakening of Harvey. It looks like it will strengthen quickly and pull all that water vapor heat energy away from Harvey.

Date: 31-31 AUG 2017
Tropical Storm LIDIA

20.70 -109.20 08/31/00Z 35 1001 TROPICAL STORM
21.30 -109.40 08/31/06Z 40 997 TROPICAL STORM

There is also another storm that manifested in the Atlantic. It is within the ITCZ and west of Africa. It began its presence around noontime yesterday with a central pressure that is rapidly rising. This independent system from Harvey is changing the heat dynamics of Harvey as well.

Date: 30-31 AUG 2017
Tropical Storm IRMA

16.40 -30.30 08/30/12Z 45 1004 TROPICAL STORM
l6.40 -31.20 08/30/18Z 50 1001 TROPICAL STORM
16.40 -32.20 08/31/00Z 55 999 TROPICAL STORM
16.50 -32.90 08/31/06Z 60 997 TROPICAL STORM

The dynamics of the two more northern vortexes of the Harvey system have changed as well. They are both moving more normally and to the north and east. At least more normally for the very hot planet we are experiencing in the 21st century.

The pinching off of Harvey from the rest of the water vapor system did not occur. Instead with the addition of a storm in the Pacific and the Atlantic; the jet stream was able to build and is now moving the air mass from the Pacific region where the motionless cloud masses existed toward the east where the two northern vortexes are finding movement toward the Arctic Circle.

Now, as to Harvey. It is still be renewed in its water vapor content from the Gulf waters. But, it is losing its longevity. There will still be rain along its path, but, it will ultimately resolve. The Gulf of Mexico is very hot. The feeder system this storm has developed achieved static equilibrium and that is a significant change for this warming event. It cannot be ignored and there is a very good chance it will repeat in the future.