Sunday, May 01, 2016

Hidden within the job statistics that job growth has proven to be benefitted by trade agreements as NAFTA; is actually population growth.

In this study of Indiana the job growth over 14 years is actually ONLY 2 percent. This study does not describe the job growth as to what sector or the pay from that growth. In other words when discussing job growth after NAFTA it gets tricky because of population growth, the change in the type of jobs involved in the region and the overall wealth of the people within that dynamic.

NAFTA dramatically effected the GDP of Indiana when considering there was only 2 percent jobs added post NAFTA.

There is a lot to be accounted for when discussing NAFTA and it's impact on PAY and income inequality. 

Job growth occurred in only one city in Indiana while the remainder of the state saw job losses and increases in poverty.

The accumulating news of employment growth (click here) in the nation and Indiana are promising, even if the speed of this growth is still under debate. However, often overlooked in the tabulation of aggregate numbers is the composition and location of these jobs. This article assesses the latter point in determining the location of job growth in Indiana.
Taking the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-seasonally adjusted Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment data for metropolitan statistical areas (MSA), it is possible to track metro-level employment growth from October 2000 to October 2014.
In examining the MSA data for the 12 Indiana-based areas, one can see that over the course of 14 years, employment grew by 84,114, an increase of 4.2 percent (see Table 1). The 2013 Census population estimates for these MSAs was 4,146,968, resulting in an employment growth to population ratio of 2 percent....

Indiana's GDP during that same time period shows collapse and it's recovery, too. What it doesn't show is an increase over past performance. The larger population shows wage stagnation and further impoverishment because there was no GDP growth for the time period jobs were increasing in only one city in Indiana.

As the economic recovery gained traction, (click here) the Indiana economy regained about half of the jobs lost during the recession (2008 and 2009), gaining 57,000 jobs in 2011, and 56,000 jobs in 2012. Sub-par for a recovery bounce-back, but better than the alternative. Unfortunately, by the end of 2013, Indiana is expected to have added only 37,200 jobs.
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth followed a similar pattern. Indiana’s GDP took a bigger hit than the nation’s in 2008 and 2009, as Figure 1 shows. Output growth rebounded more quickly in the Hoosier state and has since run a tick above the national growth rate. The year 2013, however, is a departure. The year is expected to close out with a growth rate about 1.3 percent (compared to the United States at 1.7 percent)....

If anyone believes simply changing the 'sales pitch' to Wall Street, by stating the USA has a better work force, will change the outcome of NAFTA, they are sadly mistaken. Wall Street already knows the USA has the better work force. The CEOs don't care about the quality of the work force because many manufacturing jobs can be learned by people without educations. That has been true in Mexico and China. Company CEOs want bonuses and they know with a cheaper work force they can earn high bonuses. CEOs accept the fact the cheaper work force will not be as efficient, but, so what. The manufacturing costs drop so dramatically that inefficiency is not revealed.

The fact of the matter is when jobs are lost in the USA as manufacturing leaves, the GDP drops in states and nationally. 

What CEOs should be looking at is the impoverishment of their consumers in the USA. While CEOs like immediate gratification in bonuses, the long term prediction of the companies profits is very bad. We know that for a fact and the history of profits at GM is the best LIVING example of that.

Free trade agreements are bad for Americans and bad for the country. We lose jobs, we lose good paying jobs and most of all we lose GDP. The USA's current national debt is fueled by NAFTA. 

Let's make this real simple. The population of Indiana increased by seven percent from the years 2000 to 2014. HOWEVER, the population concentrated in the Indianapolis area and the GDP FELL nearly an entire point to 3.0 percent in 2014 from 3.9 percent in 2000.

Free Trade Agreements are adverse to the best outcomes of Americans because it removes good paying jobs. They are detrimental to states and the country because the treasury income drops regardless of population growth. And, ultimately Free Trade Agreements impede states and the federal government to pay off it's debt because of the falling GDP. The national debt is definitely tied to the USA GDP.

The politicians can talk about lowering the national debt all they want, but, until there is higher income to USA citizens the debt will continue to grow with each new free trade agreement signed into law.

Simple population growth is not solving the problems of the USA, it is making it worse. Evidence to that is the emergence and sustained numbers of the working poor.

The national debt is not just about SPENDING it is also and to a greater extent about INCOME to the treasury.