Thursday, March 12, 2015

There seems to be an idea that Europe is getting paranoid regarding Russia.

I hope there isn't paranoia that would escalate tensions in Ukraine. That would not be good. I realize when a major power steps outside a treaty process that is plenty reason to be paranoid, however, this according to the speaker at the link inside the article is more or less Russia stepping outside this treaty to allow a former Warsaw Pact country a direct roll in the talks.

March 10, 2015
By RT

...Moscow has asked Belarus (click here) to represent Russia's interests in the group starting from Wednesday, the statement said.

According to the Ministry, the move does not mean that Moscow refuses to continue further dialogue on control of conventional armed forces in Europe - "if and when our partners are ready for it," the Ministry official said in the statement, adding that future work on the project should serve the interests of both Russia and other European states. 

The original CFE Treaty, signed in 1990 by 16 NATO and six Warsaw Pact, set equal ceilings for each bloc on key categories of conventional armaments, with tanks, combat armored vehicles, artillery, assault helicopters and combat aircraft among them. For instance, under the treaty, each side is supposed to have no more than 16,500 tanks or 27,300 armored combat vehicles in active units.... 

The treaty was originally between the Warsaw Pact countries and Europe. By allowing Belarus an important role at the continued negotiations it relieves any political tensions that might scuttle this treaty.

Russia recognizes the relationship with Europe is nearly absent from any diplomatic efforts. That should not increase paranoia or added tensions. It is going to take a great deal of patience and time to bring about a regional peace. I sincerely hope the current ceasefire holds, because, the deaths already amount to at least 6000 people. That better not be a down payment on more violence.

I think Belarus is a good choice. The Post Soviet countries are looking to have a role in their own sovereignty. Belarus coming forward as a leader to their own autonomy only validates there is no happiness with Russia in escalating tensions with The West. 

Russia has been guilty of attempting to put back together the USSR or at least appearing to be doing so. This is a promise of the future whereby Russia is not "Mother Russia," but, an autonomous country as the other Post Soviet countries have realized. The new role by Belarus solidifies that autonomy. It is a good thing.   

A Canadian news agency carries the same concern regarding tensions in Europe. Europeans probably believe it is easy to be a Western nation of people when an ocean provides a buffer, well, we are all worried about the peace.

March 12, 2015
By Lucas Powers

'Everyone is paranoid' (click here)

..."When a ceasefire fails, things can move very quickly and forces need to be in a position where they can control that situation," says Sim Tack, a military analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence and advisory firm based in Austin, Texas. 

"Everyone is paranoid and no one wants to be the first to completely commit to the ceasefire and drop all of their strategic capabilities only to find themselves betrayed later."...