Friday, October 18, 2013

The longer the delay to peace talks, the greater the escalation on the ground.

9:00pm October 18, 2013

US officials said Secretary of State John Kerry (click here) would head to Europe for discussions on a planned peace conference in Geneva, which a Syrian official said could come at the end of November.
But the prospects for the conference, dubbed Geneva 2, remain unclear, with the Syrian opposition divided and due to vote next week on whether to take part.
On the ground, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported fierce clashes that began in the eastern province of Deir Ezzor overnight continued on Friday.
The group, which relies on a network of activists, doctors and lawyers, also reported regime air strikes wounded several people and damaged homes in Deir Ezzor city....


The destruction of Syria's chemical weapons stockpile (click here) is well underway, and the agency overseeing it _ the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons _ has won a Nobel Peace Prize. But despite global praise and a smooth start, the mission faces difficult challenges, from tight deadlines to safety risks for inspectors trying to get to sites near fighting. There's also political fallout. The decision to make Syrian President Bashar Assad a partner in destroying the stockpile appears to have restored some of his legitimacy and boosted his chances of staying in power longer, while angering his opponents who now balk at attending political transition talks the U.S. hopes will begin in November....

This report from The Washington Post clearly states there is no central authority to the rebels. The rebels are sorting out warlords. It seems exactly the same dynamic witnessed in Libya. Libya has a central authority, a weak one, but it is recognized in the international community. It is something for the people to build on, but, the leadership has become targets and deaths by the militias. 

I believe the militias in any part of the region are territorial. They are concerned with communities, tribes and hamlets of people. Literally, a colonial army without a general. They are more like police, but, without ethical standards and/or plans. This diffuse organization works as well as it does, but, very well may never achieve control. 

Turkey is worried about an al Qaeda group on it's border, too. It could very well be any al Qaeda influence in the region of the Turkish border is becoming affiliated with Kurdish extremists. Turkey was rather successful recently in rooting out those extremists from it's border and now there is a resurgence of what might be a reenforced element coming from Syria.

I just think the sooner there are peace talks the sooner the rebels will consolidate around a central authority with resources and clout. Eating and drinking and a place to live can have influence. The sooner humanitarian aid is abundant, the less likely there is a need for territorial authority. 

My best guess.

By Associated Press 

BEIRUT — Several dozen rebel groups (click here) in southern Syria have broken with the main political opposition group in exile, a local commander said in a video posted Wednesday, dealing a potential new setback to Western efforts to unify moderates battling President Bashar Assad’s regime.
The Turkey-based Syrian National Coalition, the political arm of the Free Syrian Army rebel group, has long struggled to win respect and recognition from the fighters. It is widely seen as cut off from events on the ground and ineffective in funneling aid and weapons to the rebels....
 
...FSA spokesman Louay Mikdad told The Associated Press that the video is authentic and identified the man speaking as a captain in one of the rebel groups, Anwar al-Sunna, which posted the video.

The rebel in the video said political opposition leaders have failed to represent those trying to bring down Assad.

“We announce that we withdraw our recognition from any political group that claims to represents us, first among them the Coalition and its leadership which have relinquished the principles of the homeland and the revolution,” he said.

He named 66 groups that he said support his statement. The man suggested rebel groups would reorganize, saying that “we are unifying the forces of the revolution militarily and politically,” but did not explain further....