Saturday, August 25, 2012

Isaac becomes dicey.

August 25, 2012
0930:00z
UNISYS Infrared GOES East Satellite (click here for 12 hour loop)

This is a current INFRARED satellite and not a water vapor satellite because it is easier to discern the multiple dynamics at work.

There is a line of clouds in the center of North America. It extends from where Isaac and into South America. Isaac has been fueling from that water vapor. BUT. That line of clouds is a front leading all the way into Canada where sits a large vortex. It is acting as a wall to the path of Isaac. That wall is moving east and north. Isaac is moving west and north.

August 12, 2012
0930:00z
UNISYS Water Vapor GOES East Satellite (click title to entry for 12 hour loop - thank you)

The eye of the storm has become consolidated below Haiti. The people in Haiti are receiving about 55 knot winds over their tent cities. The storm is most probably a real soaker, no different than Irene last year.

But, there is an interesting development on the Atlantic side of Cuba. The water is hotter there than in the Caribbean and Isaac is moving north in strength while loosening bonds with South American water vapor. At least the tropical rainforests get a break for a while.

Thursday, 23 August 2012 22:38
...In conjunction with (click here) the Department of Civil Protection (DPC), the Head of Government promises regular dissemination of information relating to the movement of the storm. He stressed the importance of national solidarity and mobilized all the actors involved in the management of risks and disasters under the leadership of the Ministry of Interior through the Directorate of Civil Protection (DPC)....

Right now the consolidation of water vapor over southern Florida is simply an outer band, but, these storms have a characteristic that has been consistent for the last few years. The storms now the usual hurricanes as we witnessed in 2005, they morphed into diffuse and large circulation centers seeking water vapor and heat. If Issac proves to have a more diffuse path there is a chance with the oncoming front moving east, it could become an east coast storm 'near shore' storm. It depends on water temperatures. I haven't looked at the water temperature maps, but, if the temperatures are higher in the Atlantic there is a chance it would consolidate there.


15  17.20  -71.90 08/24/21Z   55   994 TROPICAL STORM

Isaac stabilized here and dropped two millibars of central pressure.

15A  17.30  -72.00 08/25/00Z   55   992 TROPICAL STORM

The longitude of the storm is also taking a more consistent movement with a full .5 (half a degree) change.

 16  17.70  -72.50 08/25/03Z   60   990 TROPICAL STORM

Currently, Isaac is oscillating between a central pressure of 990 and 992 millibars. That is because it is near land. Winds are stabilized followed by a drop in wind speed. Again, that is because it is near land. 

16A  18.00  -72.80 08/25/06Z   60   990 TROPICAL STORM

Regardless of the drop in wind speed the direction is north with movement in that direction of a complete degree in latitude. That is a change in vector for the storm.

 17  19.00  -73.30 08/25/09Z   50   992 TROPICAL STORM

The change in it's vector is due to the hot waters of southern Florida. It is moving not so much on a self contained 'eye,' but, by the water vapor and heat dynamics the OSCILLATION brings to the storm. The 'eye' of these storms are a focus, but, not the driving force to it's dynamics any long as it used to be. These storms are still circulation centers, it is the physics of a rotating planet that brings that, but, they more 'heat seeking' storms than a directional vector storm as storms of 2005 and before have been.

Until later.