Monday, August 08, 2011

It is a mistake to simply disregard the downgrade by S&P.

The market relevance of S&P’s stripping of the U.S.’s AAA rating is plain in the rise in price and fall in yields on U.S. Treasury securities. That is, nil.
The benchmark 10-year note yield is back below 2.5%, down 10 basis points from Friday at 2.46%, as investors continue to seek U.S. government securities as the safest haven in a turbulent world, notwithstanding S&P’s protestations. At the same time, the two-year note yield is at “two bits” again, or 0.25%, down four basis points. And the long end, which did sell off initially Sunday evening, has come roaring back with the 30-year bond yield off seven basis points, at 3.77%. (Newbies note: prices and yields of bonds move inversely.)
The market is behind the move in U.S. Treasuries, unlike those of the sovereign debt of Italy and Spain. Those truly impaired credits have been bolstered by the decision of the European Central Bank to buy those bonds, which are rated not far below those of the U.S. Italian 10-year yields plunged more than 60 basis points, to below 5.5%, while the Italian equivalent yield is down about three-quarters of a percentage point (74 basis points), to 5.30%. Italy and Spain are not assured of being able to refinance or repay their debts, which are issued in euros, a currency not under their direct control. By contrast, the U.S. can pay its bonds in the world’s reserve currency which it uniquely can print....