Friday, March 27, 2015

Russia should consider restructuring Ukraine debt.

Ukraine is in an impossible position. How does The West or Russia expecting a war torn country to pay it's bills when the economy is nearly destroyed. The Ukraine needs peace and time to rebuild both it's infrastructure and it's trade relations. 

The Minsk Agreement should have included debt restructuring.

March 27, 2015

Ukraine’s $3 billion debt to Russia (click here) could undermine the IMF’s four-year multibillion dollar bailout program. If the debt is considered official, it will breach the terms of providing financial assistance, said IMF spokesperson William Murray.
 
The Ukraine debt includes $3 billion in Eurobonds lent by Russia to the country’s previous government in December 2013. IMF rules say a bailout cannot be provided to a country if it defaulted on a loan from a state institution.
"We have a non-tolerance policy," William Murray told reporters at a news conference on Thursday, adding that Ukraine's debt to Russia should be considered state debt. 

"If I'm not mistaken, the $3 billion Eurobond comes from the Russian sovereign wealth fund, so it's official debt," he said....

There is also problems with Ukraine oligarchs and their private militias. If they don't come in line with the Minsk agreement and disarm, they can wage their own war.

The Ukraine oligarchs need to assist in restructuing the country's debt and then they'll know where they belong in the country's economic rebuilding. They have to disarm their private militias. They are too dangerous to regional stability. Russia has had to deal with private oligarchs and this is no different.

March 27, 2015

Ukraine’s president (click here) just dethroned Ihor Kolomoisky from his post as regional governor—but with his personal militia and billions in the bank, Kiev might have a new opponent on its hands.
Ukraine’s president Petro Poroshenko won the latest round in his longstanding fight this week against iron-fisted billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky, the governor of Dnepropetrovsk, the country’s stronghold in the war-torn east.

It was a crucial duel for the 49-year-old president and the 52-year-old oligarch for financial and military influence, which essentially means the power to rule Ukraine.
On Wednesday, in the latest stage of the battle, the two men sat down at the same table and looked each other in the eye. The president then sacked the tycoon from his post of regional governor. In response, four of Kolomoisky’s supporters from Bloc Petro Poroshenko quit the parliament in protest....

Mr. Kolomosiky is providing an excuse to the rebels to continue the killing. The entire Ukraine military has to be reconstituted. There can no longer be private militias.

...In an effort to fan the flames of strife between Poroshenko and the oligarch, the leader of the rebellious Donetsk People Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, suggested this week that Kolomoisky—one of Ukraine’s richest tycoons worth over $1.3 billion— would create his own breakaway Dnepropetrovsk Republic of Kolomoisky.

“He is de facto the master of that territory, the real power and Kiev has to agree with him,” Zakharchenko said earlier this week at a press briefing in Donetsk....

The stability of Ukraine has to be returned so it's economy has a fighting chance to pay off debt. How can it pay off debt with an absent economy due to attacks by rebels. All this has to stop and the people have to go back to being productive and rebuilding their country. There is no reason for hate, fighting and killing.

The post Soviet states have to establish themselves as productive economic partners to both Russia and Europe. It is their reality and their people will always have a history connected to Russia. Russia will never be completely alienated in their countries. 

I can never understand the tensions between Poland and Russia. They have a proud history together. Does Poland's leadership realize the role they played with Russia in saving the lives of so many Jews during WWII. That is not a minor reality. They were great together.

The region has to re-establish their history and that includes how they became autonomous countries. The post Soviet countries while they want to be a part of Europe, they cannot ignore the fact their countries are pivotal to regional peace and stability. The anger and hatred has to stop. There can be no ethnic tensions. The greatest economic stability can be realized by first embracing their ethnic heritage and building on that for tourism. No tourist is going to come to South Ossetia if there are tensions and war. 

The world is missing out on the understanding of these people through tourism. Russia has to provide at least that aspect of the economy so they have pride in their people. When Russia embarks on creating small countries with ethnic divides it is empathetic, but, also economic instability. All that has to be realized and appreciated. 

What kind of country is going to be nothing but a Russian satellite? That is hard on people. That is a big pill to swallow. The people have to be safe, but, they also have to have their ethnic identity. Many people want to understand all these people and the region and the vital role it has played in world affairs for so long. These are very intelligent people. We want them and Russia cannot keep them to itself. 

Enough already.