Friday, June 14, 2013

New arms to Syria will escalate the war as the rebels defend their homes.

...18.46 (click here) A Turkish news agency reports that 73 Syrian military officers, including seven generals and 20 colonels, have crossed the border with their families “seeking refuge”. It did not say when the crossing happened.
 
18.35 The White House has identified four cases where the Assad regime had used chemical weapons as justification for its change in strategy. Our graphics department has provided us with a map of those areas... 

This position by the USA and The West should bring favor in Arab Sunni Mosques. I don't really believe a holy war is in order, but, certainly a relief to many that Syrians will be able to defend themselves.

18.30 In Cairo, the Egyptian capital, meanwhile, thousands of Islamists rallied in support of calls by Sunni Muslim clerics for a holy war against Assad's regime

The demonstration took place outside a Cairo mosque where Saudi preacher Mohammed al-Oreifi called in a sermon for a "jihad in the cause of Allah in Syria.

Oreifi urged worshippers to "unite against their enemy."
Saudi Arabia, like Egypt, is an overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim country, and Sunnis are the backbone of the revolt against Assad, whose Alawite sect is an offshoot of Shia Islam.

The Russian President has many interests in Sunni Muslim nations as well. I am sure both nations would like an end to the slaughter of innocent people and stabilization of the region.

16.33 An aide to Vladimir Putin has confirmed that the Russian president will hold a bilateral meeting with Barack Obama at the G8 summit in Northern Ireland on Monday

Mr Putin and Mr Obama will meet on the sidelines of the G8 summit at the Lough Erne resort on Monday and will also kickstart a Syria session at the summit at the request of host Britain.

Yury Ushakov, Mr Putin's foreign policy aide said: 

It would be a huge mistake to place NATO troops in Syria. This civil war is not a threat to The West, but, the region does need stability and de-escalation of aggressions by Assad. Assad has turned the region on it's head for his own purposes and there is no evidence he was about to stop.

Just to be clear when we talk about ‘arming the rebels’ there are six tiers of ‘assistance’ available:
 
1. Non-lethal aid – i.e. Food and medicines. Status: already being supplied to units of the Free Syrian Army

2. Non-lethal military aid – i.e. flak jackets, night vision goggles, sat-phones. FSA sources say the paperwork is complete on these, and supply was expected to flow by August. Unclear if this will now be expedited

3. Lethal military aid – i.e. small arms and ammo. Status: as yet unsupplied by US, though plenty of from other sources. Now being promised by White House officials cited by ABC News, New York Times and others

4. Game-changing military aid – i.e wire-guided anti-tank missiles, surface-to-air missiles. Status: not provided. White House officials not willing to specify.
 
5. Partial Military intervention: i.e. partial/full no-fly zone. Status: some officials and diplomats mooting this as a possibility. White House says “no decision”.

6. Boots on the ground: explicitly ruled out by Barack Obama