Sunday, June 03, 2012

The real problem has been the mortgage market.

The "W" economy was highly dependent on construction. Every bill coming out of the legislature was a jobs bill primarily for the construction industry. And the country shows it. 


This is a graph regarding housing prices from Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall Market (click here). They are projecting recovery to start two years out after a brief recovery over the next 18 months. 


Now, what I like about this assessment is the fact they are looking long term both from before the depressed economy to a full recovery in the future. They are not only showing the recovery of the current margin from the lowest point, but, where it is expected in the future to the point where it was before the crash. 


In some ways, the recovery is best if it is gradual, it will put more people in the market if it occurs that way. They also note this particular market (location, location, location) is seeing double the dynamics of the average of the nation. The recovery here is actually twice as slow. 


And I love this description: This market has typical risks and returns for investors.
The local economy is well diversified. Population growth has been close to the national average. Income is slightly below average. The housing boom was especially severe, with an 88 percent rise in prices followed by a 45 percent drop. The recession was bad, with jobs down 8 percent.

I sincerely believe local economies are the key to a stable and sustainable economy. 

The "W" economy was unrealistic and inflated, not caused by INFLATION, but inflated. The prices of homes rose significantly and average people used their equity to buy boats or second and even third homes. The manipulation of personal financial security during the 
"W" economy was unethical. The social economy lost its anchor and all of a sudden everyone could be a millionaire by using the equity in their homes. It was a faux economy. It shouldn't have happened, but, it did. If the construction industry wasn't so out of control the "W" economy would have been the "W" recession. If anything kicked the can down the road to growing a sustainable economy for the USA it was "W" economy. 

Tax cuts, war spending, inflated egos in the country and faux personal financial security values. Sounds like a shoddy economy, not just shoddy substandard work. Didn't Halliburton have the problem, too?