Sunday, October 14, 2012

The Mideast today is different since the Arab Spring.

The leadership is more representative of their people. The extremist violence groups are now taking their places within their government structure, many for the first time.

I also believe there are power vacuums since the transition of the powers in these newly governed and long standing allies of the USA.

There won't be a caliphate. There simply won't be although the Salafists would seek that as a goal. The new leadership must bring their people together in an understanding of tolerance. Egypt's President is off to a good start, but, here again he is in this capacity for the first time. He has set a precedent to bring the people of Egypt together in tolerance. He is attempting to be the President of Egypt, not just the Muslim Brotherhood and he has a lot of interesting folks in his Parliament to get along with while attempting policies that will work for Egypt.

Israel is a political pawn. It is debatable as to the final outcome to these politics, but, they can't be taken lightly. Iran rejected peace with the USA once the Shah was removed. The Shi'ites of Iran cling to their faith while seeking to protect their interests everywhere on the planet.

Iran has made Israel a political pawn within the country and to that end the leadership is backed into a corner of inflammatory rhetoric with no way of actually making amends to The West to remove the sanctions. I believe Iran has to stop any advance to nuclear weapon capacity. If anything the people of the USA know while rhetoric might be dismissed as political volleys, it isn't necessarily and definitely can have negative impacts.

The Salafists have emerged as the baseline populous of al Qaeda. If anything al Qaeda grew out of this extremist faith. I believe they are very dangerous, involved in destroying cultures to insure their own domination and I believe  they were involved in the death of Ambassador Stevens and his three colleagues. I also believe it is convenient for the Salafists to hold on to their extremist ideology because it gives permission for violence. The Salafists have also proven when their ideologies don't work for them, as recent as 2000, they discard these priorities for more modern approaches.

We are witnessing the rise of the oppressed in the Middle East. The trend has lasted for decades and is finally taking its final form. 

There are many educated people with these new administrations across Arabia. They are interested in the future and the well being of their countries. While sorting through the extremist agendas of the current collection of leaderships, eventually it will be worth the tolerance of their changing paradigm.

The only aspect to the Arab Spring that concerns me are the Salafists and their direct influence on growing al Qaeda. Now that they are among those elected and able to make policy there is no clear understanding they are seeking tolerance so much as indulgence. The Salafists have to move into the year 2012 with expediency before war results and they are again victimized for their beliefs.

See, that is what had them trapped in oppression in the first place. Retaliation as oppressors themselves will not achieve the goals they are looking for.

And leave the Shi'ites of Iraq alone. They have long had exceptional leadership and until the marshes were drained lived under the Southern No Fly Zone. They will be stable far sooner than any other populous in the region. They'll be fine and they have their marshes back, happiness knows no end with the Iraqi Shi'ites.

I didn't discuss the Kurds as they are well on their way to autonomous regions where they can finally raise their children without fear. The Kurds have always turned to the USA for support and lived happily under the Northern No Fly Zone.

Turkey will become an invaluable ally to many of these transitioned countries. The region has yet to stabilize due to Assad, but, that won't last all that much longer.