Sunday, August 30, 2015

How can a country separate it's politics from economy? That is such a strange statement. Surely it means the Pope expects the USA to destroy it's economy in an unrealistic way, right?

This is a history of the GDP growth of Germany.

November 22, 2013
By Ben Walsh

On Tuesday, (click here) the ZEW survey of showed the confidence of German institutional investors was at a four-year high. Martin writes the ZEW survey “suggested the economy could expand by 0.5% in the fourth quarter”.

Germany has more vacant work positions than they have qualified people to fill them. What? With 0.5 percent growth how does that happen?

June 30, 2015
 
The number of unemployed people (click here) in Germany fell for the ninth consecutive month in June, dropping to a level unseen since the country reunited about 25 years ago. Also, the number of job vacancies rose to new heights.... 


Germany has a stable economy. It's growth easily balances the need of new people entering the labor market. Germany's retirement age is the same as the USA, age 65.

...Having been “export world champion” (click here) six times in a row between 2003 and 2008, in 2009, with exports worth US$ 1,121 billion, around one third of the gross national income, Germany was the second biggest exporter of goods worldwide after China (US$ 1,202 billion). Germany’s share of total world trade is around nine percent....

What does it mean to have a stable economy? The graph at the top of the page showed where Germany's economy suffered with the global economic collapse. It lost it's export business and it lost gross capital investment. The investors rolled up their storefronts and waited to see where the growth in the global economy would go.

The following year there was an adjustment within the economy and Germany's GDP leveled off to stabilize it one more time. The following year inventories fell as foreign export increased. See, just because it's exports fell against a global collapse, Germany never stopped producing products. The inventories were there to satisfy customers and return the German GDP. The same products for generation after generation. 

Germany wasn't interested in austerity.

The subsequent years have varying degrees of inventory fluctuations, but, the GDP growth remains mostly consistent.

So, how come the USA doesn't have a stable economy? Because most USA economies of the past are built on wealth and Wall Street. Bubble and Bust. The economy the people of the USA have built since the global economic collapse will be the most stable the USA has had since the industrial age of the country. 

The USA has built an economy based in regional understanding and local development. Local economies can be very boring and very stable, until they are sold out to Wall Street in an international treaty.

Why do you think there is a measure of "consumer confidence?" It is a Wall Street value that measures the willingness of Americans to spend their hard earn money. Does a local economy need to understand consumer confidence in a measure study? I would hope not. Local economies are built by real people who value their customers in the real world. They should know their balance sheet on a regular basis, the products their customers buy and want to buy and make changes within their products and/or services to maintain a consistent growth because demand increased with a new generation of Americans entering the work force.

President Obama stated he wanted to rid the USA of the 'bubble and bust' economy. Let's hope he sincerely meant it. 

How much does a country have to grow? It has to grow to match the new generation of Americans into the labor force with elimination of those leaving the labor force by retirement. What is the demand of growth for the USA? 
How much is satisfied by a stable demand? Where does the country need to grow and how? This isn't all that difficult. Does the USA actually need 4 percent growth in it's GDP? Who benefits from it?