NATO…

…is being kept at bay by Russia. NATO needs to accept Ukraine into its alliance. It would bring pressure to end the war and validate peace talks. A large number of Ukrainians are already refugees in NATO nations. There is no end to Putin’s aggression with the philosophy that if he can’t have Ukraine then no one else can. Ukrainians have proven themselves and it is time they are allowed into the alliance so they are taken seriously. 

Belarus

Putin wants to attempt a nuclear strike against Ukraine. Other than being stupid enough to forever contaminate a very valuable piece of real estate on Earth, the nuclear fallout will drift into NATO and there will be war because of it.

Putin is irrational in all his plans and his allies need to start to deescalate the hatred driving Putin’s desperation. His politics have gotten him what he wants, he needs to stop the aggression that he pretends is important.