Sunday, February 14, 2021

There is a limit on time in order to prevent a climate disaster.

Ross Ice Shelf (click here) melting as it never has before (picture to left.

The Earth is showing signs of atmospheric mixing. Until recent years the idea of water vapor in any amount in the lower stratosphere going up was irrelevant. Now, with an increase in water vapor into the stratosphere there is a concern for the origins and what we can expect in the future.

We know that water vapor in the stratosphere increases the break down of O3, ozone. NASA is probably the best agency to plunder for information. They monitor the different atmospheres and have for a long time. They have historic data that can act as a baseline to better understand the changing stratosphere in both oxygen and water vapor transported through the tropopause and into the lower stratosphere.

Across the journal articles and scientific letters, there is a concern mostly for the lower stratosphere. That to me is where the water vapor is transported from the troposphere. Now, what is occurring in the troposphere that can actually cause these increasing amounts of water vapor in the lower stratosphere?

If one looks at the date whereby C-zero was discovered to be moving in the opposite direction, the two high altitude tropospheric vortexes and now the beginning of the increase in water vapor in the lower stratosphere the picture of the climate crisis takes shape.

There was something drastic that happened in 2002. The ice rivers leading into the Ross Ice Shelf shrank drastically. The emergence of vortexes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific was manifested due to the rising temperatures in Earth's troposphere. Upt to that point the warming of Earth was linear. It was on a path of 100 years before these drastically dangerous conditions would exist. The vortexes of 2002 would multiple to seven and eventually reach a maximum with the diameter from the equator to the arctic circle.

Now, with a growing concern for increasing water vapor in the lower stratosphere which would imperil the ozone layer, the year 2002 shows there is another structural problem with the climate crisis. I am convinced in 2002 there was a tipping point which we have not recovered from. It seems plainly obvious to me the water vapor collecting in the stratosphere is due to mixing when the polar vortex collapses and opportunity at the ozone hole in Antarctica with it's own polar vortex. 

The illustration to the right shows the size of the Ross Ice Shelf. The polluting greenhouse gases must stop into the troposphere, the price is too high for such flagrant disregard of human life.

He has at least two numbers right, 51 billion tons and 0 greenhouse gas emissions

February 14, 2021
By Kerry A. Dolan

Bill Gates wants you to know two numbers: 51 billion and zero. (click here) The former is the number of tons of greenhouse gases typically added to the atmosphere each year as a result of human activities. The latter is the number of tons we need to get to by 2050 in order to avert a climate crisis.

Gates has a plan for how to go from 51 billion to zero, and he’s happy to say it doesn’t come with a price tag in the trillions of dollars. As you might expect from a guy who made his fortune in technology, the billionaire’s suggested solution is tied in large part to innovation.

He spells out his plan in a new book, How To Avoid A Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have And The Breakthroughs We Need, to be released on February 16. Ahead of the book launch, Gates talked to Forbes about why he wrote the book. He also shared details the book doesn’t get into, including how much he’s invested in zero-carbon companies, which ones he’s most excited about, including a new kind of nuclear power plant, and what he’s likely to invest in next.

Goal number one of the book, says Gates, is to clearly lay out which sectors of the economy are producing the 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases the world typically adds to the atmosphere each year. “The actual numeric framework, which is the most basic thing for any problem you want to tackle...that’s really been missing,” Gates says in a video interview from a conference room in his offices in Seattle. (See table for the percentage breakdown.) The goal we as a planet need to aim for: zero emissions by 2050. Gates is optimistic that as hard as it sounds, we can get there....

B/P has no problem in changing to alternative energy sources, why would anyone else?

Consumers have been waiting for this for a long time. It is time to be finished with the age of oil.

February 11, 2021
By Stanley Reed

Royal Dutch Shell (click here) on Thursday made the boldest statement among its peers about the waning of the oil age, saying its production reached a high in 2019 and is now likely to gradually decline.

Shell’s “total oil production peaked in 2019” and will now drop 1 or 2 percent annually, the company said in a statement.

The announcement, part of the small print of a presentation about future clean-energy goals, is a turning point for one of the world’s leading oil firms, one dating back to the 19th century. And it underscores a talking point that the company’s chief executive, Ben van Beurden, has expressed for years: To stay in business, Shell must be seen as part of the solution, and not the cause, of climate change.

But as Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, Shell has faced skepticism about how willing or able it will be to shift from its roots. Indeed, Mr. van Beurden, like other oil chiefs, is trying to walk a fine line between promoting green commitments while continuing to nurture the oil and gas units that produce the bulk of Shell’s cash....

February 14, 2021
By Kalea Hall 

Detroit — General Motors Co. (click here) wants to sell 1 million electric vehicles by 2025, but to get there its leaders say it will have to ease two top concerns of drivers: EV cost and battery range anxiety. 

The automaker embraced those worries with the 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EV and its larger sibling the 2022 Bolt EUV, unveiled Sunday in partnership with Disney. Both will be cheaper than the current Bolt model — the Bolt EV by $5,000 and the EUV by $3,000 — and GM said it will cover the cost for eligible purchasers to install home charging stations....

This is a second article that validates the increases in water vapor in the stratosphere and in the mesosphere.

Geophysical Research Letters
Increasing Water Vapor in the Stratosphere and Mesosphere After 2002
By Jia Yue, James Russell III, Quan Gan, Tao Wang, Pingping Rong, Rolando Garcia, Martin Mlynczak
First published: 09 November 2019
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084973

Water vapor (H2O) measurements (click here) made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument between 2002 and 2018 and by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument between 2004 and 2018 are analyzed to determine the linear trend and solar cycle response of H2O in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Both SABER and MLS show a rapid global H2O increase of 5–6% per decade in the lower stratosphere after the 2001 drop. The increasing zonal mean H2O at 40°N in SABER and MLS is consistent with the Boulder frost point hygrometer data in the lower stratosphere. The global distribution of SABER and MLS H2O trends are positive at most altitudes and latitudes, and they peak in the tropical lower stratosphere. In the mesosphere the SABER H2O trend is 0.1–0.2 ppmv per decade and the MLS H2O trend is 0.2–0.3 ppmv per decade. The trend and solar cycle response derived from the observations are compared against the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The solar cycle response of H2O from WACCM agrees with SABER and MLS. The linear H2O trend from WACCM does not show the observed increase in the lower stratosphere.

Mr. Shirkey came out with the idea of the insurrection being a hoax because he was disciplined by his caucus for doing the right thing.

As far as I am concerned these were all ethics violations by the Michigan GOP. Shirkey succumbed to pressure from his caucus. The entire Republican caucus that demands lies and aggression to be a part of their agenda needs to be cited for ethics violations.

This is simply outrageous. An entire state party is hunkering down with lies in order to be elected again. They need to be replaced by people that are actually honest and believe in the rule of law. This Republican caucus doesn't believe in the rule of law, they believe in mayhem and anarchy as well as the militias. It has to stop!
                            
President Biden is correct, there need to be reasonable gun laws in the USA to end this idea of more and more weapons of war on the streets. Michigan militias were responsible for the plot to kidnap and torture a USA Governor. They were Michigan militia members at the January 6th insurrection. Enough of this!

February 10, 2021
By Clara Hendrickson and Dave Boucher

Senate Majority leader Mike Shirkey, (click here) the highest ranking Republican elected official in Michigan, recently said he believes the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol was not carried out by supporters of former president Donald Trump, calling the idea a "hoax" and stating that the attack was "staged."

The inaccurate comments from Shirkey, R-Clarklake, were made during a meeting with Hillsdale County Republican Party officials one day before the party censured him for not doing enough to stand up to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and supporting a ban on firearms at the Capitol, among other charges. A video of the meeting was first reported on by Detroit Metro Times.

Shirkey also takes aim several times at the governor in the video, sexualizing her in comments about budget negotiations and saying he contemplated challenging her to a fistfight outside the state Capitol. The Senate leader also acknowledges discussing the general election results during a November meeting with Trump at the White House.

No one that I read is discussing the upper tropospheric vortexes as a means of water vapor transport to the lower stratosphere.

Water Vapor in the Lower Stratosphere 

 See all authors and affiliations

Science  17 Aug 2012:
Vol. 337, Issue 6096, pp. 809-810
DOI: 10.1126/science.1227004

Summary (click here)

Water vapor in the stratosphere originates from the troposphere by transport of water vapor itself (1) and of methane and hydrogen, which degrade to make water (2). Water, methane, and hydrogen are transported to the stratosphere through upwelling in tropical regions (3). This upwelling followed by downwelling and horizontal transport in the extratropical stratosphere—the Brewer-Dobson circulation—is widely held to control the water vapor abundance in the stratosphere (see the figure). But could there be a more direct transport of tropospheric air containing water vapor into the stratosphere via convection outside the tropics (47)? On page 835 of this issue, Anderson et al. (8) argue that there is evidence for water vapor enhancements in the mid-latitude lower stratosphere. They further argue that increased water vapor levels could enhance ozone depletion caused by human-emitted ozone-depleting substances and thus raise ultraviolet radiation levels at Earth's surface.

Most, if nto all Americans, are not able to cope with the deep freeze. They have no reference points to this type of disaster.

February 1, 2021

At least 21 people (click here) have died in one of the worst cold snaps to hit the US Midwest in decades.

Ninety million people - a third of the US - have seen temperatures of -17C (0F) or below. Some 250 million Americans overall have experienced the "polar vortex" conditions.

Hospitals have been treating patients reporting frostbite as parts of the country ground to a halt.

Temperatures are expected to swing to above average over the weekend.

Homeless people have been particularly at risk, with warming shelters set up across cities.

But some still braved the freezing conditions and one woman, aged 60, was found dead in an abandoned house in Lorain, Ohio.

A hospital in Chicago has already treated 50 patients for frostbite, and some may end up losing a limb, CNN reports. Half of those patients were homeless individuals , while others had jobs that required them to be outdoors.

Some people were found dead a short walk from their homes:

A Michigan man who froze to death in his neighbourhood had been "inadequately dressed for the weather", officials said

In a wind chill of -46C (-51F) an 18-year-old student was found unresponsive a short walk from his dorm on Wednesday and later died in hospital

On Tuesday, a man froze to death in a garage in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, having "apparently collapsed after shovelling snow", according to a medical examiner


Dangerous roads have also been a factor in the deaths. A man was fatally struck by a snow plough near Chicago on Monday and in northern Indiana, a 22-year-old police officer and his wife died after a collision on icy roads.

This is called a "baseline." There are records dating back long before 2002.

Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics (click here)
Volume 1, Issue 1, 1950, Pages 49-55

Chemical analysis of stratosphere samples from 50 and 70 km height
K.F.Chackett, F.A.Paneth, E.J.Wilson
Londonderry Laboratory for Radiochemistry, University of Durham UK

Received 17 May 1950, Available online 1 April 2003.

By means of V2 rockets samples of air from heights ranging from 50 km to 70 km have been obtained in the U.S.A. and sent to us for chemical analysis. These have been tested for oxygen, argon, neon and helium. Except in the case of oxygen, the results show that the composition of the air at these heights is not appreciably different from that at ground level. A large deficit of oxygen was found but this is attributable to the method of sampling.

Ted Cruz is involved in a media blitz on FOX News. He doesn't care about the people. He cares about the power.



February 11, 2021
By Matthew Cappucci

At least six people are dead and three dozen injured, (click here) some critically, following a devastating 130-plus car pileup on Interstate 35 West in Fort Worth on Thursday morning. Freezing rain and drizzle are probably to blame, with slick roadways posing a serious danger to travel.

The Fort Worth Fire Department described the accident as a mass casualty incident, meaning local first responders were overwhelmed by the response needed to treat the number of those injured.

All northbound lanes of the highway were closed to traffic as crews responded to the accident, with reports of multiple people trapped and concerns of hypothermia if victims were not removed from the vehicles quickly. The accident occurred around 6 a.m.

Police expressed concern that a number of passengers still trapped in their cars shortly before 11 a.m. were at risk for hypothermia. Authorities were beginning the lengthy process of “entangling” the heap of vehicles and locating additional victims.

On the very dame day of October 3-4, 2002 two mid-latitude high tropospheric vortexes appeared in the North Atlantic and North Pacific

Nature (click here)
2002 Oct 3;419(6906):465-7. doi: 10.1038/nature01081.

Switch of flow direction in an Antarctic ice stream
H Conway 1, G Catania, C F Raymond, A M Gades, T A Scambos, H Engelhardt
Affiliations expand
PMID: 12368852
DOI: 10.1038/nature01081

Fast-flowing ice streams transport ice from the interior of West Antarctica to the ocean, and fluctuations in their activity control the mass balance of the ice sheet. The mass balance of the Ross Sea sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet is now positive--that is, it is growing--mainly because one of the ice streams (ice stream C) slowed down about 150 years ago. Here we present evidence from both surface measurements and remote sensing that demonstrates the highly dynamic nature of the Ross drainage system. We show that the flow in an area that once discharged into ice stream C has changed direction, now draining into the Whillans ice stream (formerly ice stream B). This switch in flow direction is a result of continuing thinning of the Whillans ice stream and recent thickening of ice stream C. Further abrupt reorganization of the activity and configuration of the ice streams over short timescales is to be expected in the future as the surface topography of the ice sheet responds to the combined effects of internal dynamics and long-term climate change. We suggest that caution is needed when using observations of short-term mass changes to draw conclusions about the large-scale mass balance of the ice sheet.

Today's Current Temperatures

 

The Stratosphere (click here) extends around 31 miles (50 km) (top of the region) down to anywhere from 4 to 12 miles (6 to 20 km) above the Earth's surface. This layer holds 19 percent of the atmosphere's gases but very little water vapor.

In this region the temperature increases with height. Heat is produced in the process of the formation of Ozone and this heat is responsible for temperature increases from an average -60°F (-51°C) at tropopause to a maximum of about 5°F (-15°C) at the top of the stratosphere.

This increase in temperature with height means warmer air is located above cooler air. This prevents "convection" as there is no upward vertical movement of the gases. As such the location of the bottom of this layer is readily seen by the 'anvil-shaped' tops of cumulonimbus clouds.

It's Sunday Night

Unfortunately, the Trump dead-enders aren't going away quietly. There are other Republicans at the state level along with Lindsay Graham in the federal government that are pivoting away from a near overthrow of the USA Constitution. There needs to be a continued dialogue about the injustice of acquitting Trump for inciting a deadly insurrection against the Constitution. Place the injustice right at the doorstep of the GOP Senate Republicans. Don't give the Republicans a chance to pretend it all was a HOAX.

THERE SHOULD BE ABSOLUTELY NO RETRIBUTION FOR VOTING THEIR CONSCIENCE. DOING SO IS AN ETHICS VIOLATION, TO SAY THE LEAST.

February 9, 2022
By Craig Mauger

Lansing - Michigan (click here) Senate Republican leader Mike Shirkey described the Jan. 6 insurrection in Washington, D.C., as "a hoax" and said it was "prearranged," according to a video of a private conversation posted on YouTube.

Shirkey, R-Clarklake, made the comments, for which he has now apologized, while meeting with the leaders of the Hillsdale County Republican Party at Spangler's Family Restaurant in Jonesville on Wednesday, according to Jon Smith of Somerset Township, the county GOP's secretary.

Smith recorded the hour-long conversation, which occurred a day before the Hillsdale County Republican Party voted to censure the Senate leader for a variety of his stances, including supporting a ban on the open carry of firearms inside the Michigan Capitol....

Where Republicans are being ridiculed by their party, invite them to join the Democratic Party or even become an Independent. In the case of Michigan, the Republicans need to be replaced to move the party to the minority. Taking back the country must take place at all levels, including state and local governments where extremists may be attempting to build a profile.

February 13, 2021
By Melissa Nann Burke

The Calhoun County Republican Party's (click here) executive committee in west Michigan has censured GOP Rep. Peter Meijer over his vote to impeach former President Donald Trump. 

The censure, which is a symbolic gesture of disapproval, is the first censure that Meijer has received since the freshman lawmaker joined Democrats and nine other Republicans last month to impeach Trump for his role in instigating the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol....

"Water" by Kehlani (click here for official website - thank you)

Swimming with a Pisces every night

Ain't really that deep, but he deep inside
Head like a Scorpio
Shy like a Cancer, water all in them planets
He said, "I wanna undress you
I wanna impress you, but I ain't gon' press you
I wanna undo the things I said before"
Damn, I ain't been this wet in years
Water, water
Water, water
Water, water
Water, water
It's the way you drink it down like you're thirsty
Tie me up, pin me down, show no mercy (ah ah)
Nibble on it, kissing it like a Hershey (muah)
You could be the boss, I'll let you work me
I'll let you finish on the tat, it says tsunami
Bust down on your future baby mommy (bust down)
Uh, fuckin' in the whip, top off (ayy)
Do a quick dick drop off (drop off)
Guess your old bitch is all talk
I ain't never seen it on soft

God damn, I wanna undress you
I wanna impress you, but I ain't gon' stress you
I wanna undo the things I said before

Damn, I ain't been this wet in years
Water, water (Ooh, water)
Water (Water), water
Water (Like), water (Like water)
Water (Uh-huh), water

Water, water
Water, water
Water, water
Water, water